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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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No you guys are right, it looks pretty rough at least for the next 10 days.  I just hope NNE can keep away from a big rain.  They've had a good winter so far, itd be nice for them to end strong.  I always feel like March has a good chance of strong snows in our area though, so I won't give up all hope.  Maybe with some luck the weekend storm will trend north and we'll pickup a couple inches. 

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5 hours ago, hazwoper said:

Was in Buffalo today.  Best snowfall of the year for me.  Time for spring.  It’s all over for us

Right there with you. I'm about to fold. Hung in way longer than I had wanted. Fluke early March storm? Watch us get an Easrer Sunday MECS this year lol. Oh well we win some we lose some. At least it wasnt just one or two people who were "Lucy'd" repeatedly with the 15-day LR stuff this year. There have been many pros that have been at this for years that post here and elsewhere that have been left scratching their heads. Has been the worst and most inaccurate LR lead forecasting that I as a hobbyist EVER recall in the 25 years I've been doing this. We should learn alot after this. This is a very humbling hobby....very.

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with climate change, I truly believe weather patterns are becoming more and more long term. We saw last summer with the WAR that wouldn't die. Then this winter we saw the MJO get hung up in 4-5-6 for most of met winter causing our terrible winter. The trends of the 2000's has been feast or famine and I expect that to continue as we go further in the future. Average winter's are no longer a thing here. We either get slammed or get skunked.

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We just had the wettest year on record and we're already starting out this year wetter than last.  Despite that, we're below normal on snowfall.

I guess the question becomes whether the pattern changes before next winter, and if it does, do we end up in a dry pattern.  Seems like a waste of all this moisture to not get a decent snowfall out of it.

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We are reliving the 80's as i long feared would come millennial's enjoy

One can look at the years 80-84 had one great storm in Feb 83 and 85-89 had Jan 87

I know there were at least a couple winters then that DC south feasted and boy was i annoyed watching it on the Weather Channel as that's all i had.

 

At least the 80's hair didn't come back

 

 

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7 hours ago, The Iceman said:

with climate change, I truly believe weather patterns are becoming more and more long term. We saw last summer with the WAR that wouldn't die. Then this winter we saw the MJO get hung up in 4-5-6 for most of met winter causing our terrible winter. The trends of the 2000's has been feast or famine and I expect that to continue as we go further in the future. Average winter's are no longer a thing here. We either get slammed or get skunked.

The MJO getting stuck in the warm phases was more so a counterpart to the QBO regime. The negative 50mb QBO delivered the SSW, however it also hightens the tropical forcing signal. Furthermore, the positive phase of the 30mb QBO didn't allow for full downwhelling of warmth, which would have allowed for better blocking and the introduction of easterlies. The SSW induced by the 50mb QBO also deposited colder tropospheric temperatures into the tropical regions, thus enhancing the MJO convection on top of the already enhanced MJO. The poor ENSO pattern favored the MJO to cycle through the warmer phases, rather than the colder ones.

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12 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right there with you. I'm about to fold. Hung in way longer than I had wanted. Fluke early March storm? Watch us get an Easrer Sunday MECS this year lol. Oh well we win some we lose some. At least it wasnt just one or two people who were "Lucy'd" repeatedly with the 15-day LR stuff this year. There have been many pros that have been at this for years that post here and elsewhere that have been left scratching their heads. Has been the worst and most inaccurate LR lead forecasting that I as a hobbyist EVER recall in the 25 years I've been doing this. We should learn alot after this. This is a very humbling hobby....very.

Agreed Steve.....my forecast is going down in flames.....maybe we get to average in snow as we always seem to manage a snowstorm when I go to Phillies spring training around St. Patty's Day! My one hope is after this dissapointing winter is that we have a nice sunny summer with dry weekends - last summer was horrific!

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9 hours ago, The Iceman said:

with climate change, I truly believe weather patterns are becoming more and more long term. We saw last summer with the WAR that wouldn't die. Then this winter we saw the MJO get hung up in 4-5-6 for most of met winter causing our terrible winter. The trends of the 2000's has been feast or famine and I expect that to continue as we go further in the future. Average winter's are no longer a thing here. We either get slammed or get skunked.

Ha - don't get me started on climate change....as Ben Franklin said climate is always changing. He was big on saying everyone always thinks it was colder when they were younger....my Dad is a great example he tells me how cold and snowy the 1950's were and then you look at actual records you see the 40's and 50's were relatively mild and snowless in this area....yet he remembers it differently. 

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3 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Ha - don't get me started on climate change....as Ben Franklin said climate is always changing. He was big on saying everyone always thinks it was colder when they were younger....my Dad is a great example he tells me how cold and snowy the 1950's were and then you look at actual records you see the 40's and 50's were relatively mild and snowless in this area....yet he remembers it differently. 

I have mixed feelings about climate change.  On one hand, the earth has naturally gone through numerous cycles of fluctuating levels of CO2 and other atmospheric gases.  The environments and climates were obviously impacted, and it led to the extinction and also evolution and birth of new species of animals.  I'll pull up a couple great videos from PBS that are definitely worth a watch. 

Anyways on the other hand, this is the first time in earth's history that there is a species capable of creating long term impacts to its environment and climate.  If we end up creating an actual negative impact to our climate, i'm sure the earth would be able to sort itself back out.  We just might not be around to see that happen.  

 

I know there's a climate change sub forum and hopefully I don't distract the thread, but we dont have too much to talk about. Hopefully I didnt get you started! 

 

The first video is definitely worth a watch but they both have interesting info.

 

 

Also, were holding onto a good bit of sleet in my neighborhood due to our northeast facing hill and woods.  Have about an 1-1.5inches in shaded areas and bare grass elsewhere.  There's a 1 foot area where it goes from nothing to fully covered grass from the shadow of my house.  I'll actually be home during daylight to take a picture tomorrow.  

Next week day 6 and 7 looks like another swfe with snow to ice to rain.  

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My synopsis of this winter:  a big disappointment when it comes to mid range models. There has been absolutely no agreement with 10 day models anymore- they all go which ever way they feel.  They are absolutely unreliable, even when trying to sniff out a storm. I have used the NAM as my determining model as it as been the most reliable all winter. Even Dr No has sucked all winter with 10 inches of snow in one model run for 3 days and nothing in the next 3 days than barely anything the last day. With the MJO in stagnation, the overall patterns are stagnant as well with the same wet pattern over area since the end of last June. The pattern looks to get busted in the next two weeks though.

I cannot remember the last time I saw a true Miller A storm form and hit our area. The gulf of Mexico LP production has been shut down during the entire winter season with these progressive midwestern lp's cutting up through Great lakes.  For next week alone I counted at least 5 LP's cutting up  over Lake Ontario. Thats is crazy. No wonder upper Michigan is getting clobbered while the east coast and Boston to Philly have no snow. Whats ironic, is that I see the Pineapple express may open up for business in the next  two weeks that actually may kick the shit out of this stagnant pattern for us- I guess better late than never for the potential of snow if we can get enough cold air to to stay over us for longer than 3 days. Otherwise  this winter is finished after March 15

 

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Weather underground wants 6 inches (5 to 8) at my house on Wednesday before a changeover to sleet.  I'll believe it when I see it.  Gfs 18z has a copycat system right on its heels and had the second wave stronger for our area.  That would be friday, around 240 hrs.  

Edit: sorry I forgot we have a thread for these threats. 

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1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Weather underground wants 6 inches (5 to 8) at my house on Wednesday before a changeover to sleet.  I'll believe it when I see it.  Gfs 18z has a copycat system right on its heels and had the second wave stronger for our area.  That would be friday, around 240 hrs.  

Edit: sorry I forgot we have a thread for these threats. 

I think you're good, the thread is for this weekend (tomorrow's ghost event that moved south) and Sunday night which may give us some snow, mostly farther north it looks like. Next week is starting to look possibly interesting, but I'm gonna hold my fire/anticipation for another day or two (or three) because, well, it's the wise thing to do - especially this winter.

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Sorry, but this "sub-forum" is a joke. Worst participation on the whole site, especially as a major metro. Winter not going your way, then bail? Hmmm...the sports analogies to the hometown are stunning.

And before you start asking "Who are you?", rest assured I tried to start conversation here once or twice, but when you're not in "the clique," guess you don't count. Vicious circle.

Anyway, here's to Spring 2019.

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4 hours ago, specialsk said:

Sorry, but this "sub-forum" is a joke. Worst participation on the whole site, especially as a major metro. Winter not going your way, then bail? Hmmm...the sports analogies to the hometown are stunning.

And before you start asking "Who are you?", rest assured I tried to start conversation here once or twice, but when you're not in "the clique," guess you don't count. Vicious circle.

Anyway, here's to Spring 2019.

I'll just leave this here.

15503095508105837237009289694864-01.jpeg

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Another "concrete" storm coming to the LV next week. After an inch of two inches of snow on Sunday night,  2-4 more inches with sleet and freezing rain piled for good measures on Wednesday. This is the first year in at least a decade where I could not use my snow thrower as the "concrete" is just too dam heavy. Anyway, I am so tired of model fluctuation. The GFS and Euro said nearly foot yesterday are back down to less than 6 inches. I have come to the conclusion that models cannot handle the CAD AT ALL.  They should have a sleet and freezing rain clown maps to prove my point or better yet an overall CAD map with a severity index. Then the snow clown maps would be more realistic. Should not be hard to take the soundings of the major cities along the east coast and combine them into an individual  CAD map for easier visualization. If they can do it for snow, they can do it for freezing rain and sleet. And before any one barks. I know they have sleet and freezing rain maps already but an overall "potential CAD Formation Map with a severity ranking"would be nice in the model runs since this feature is not readily apparent to many amateur posters who just look at the clown maps for discussion.

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12 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Another "concrete" storm coming to the LV next week. After an inch of two inches of snow on Sunday night,  2-4 more inches with sleet and freezing rain piled for good measures on Wednesday. This is the first year in at least a decade where I could not use my snow thrower as the "concrete" is just too dam heavy. Anyway, I am so tired of model fluctuation. The GFS and Euro said nearly foot yesterday are back down to less than 6 inches. I have come to the conclusion that models cannot handle the CAD AT ALL.  They should have a sleet and freezing rain clown maps to prove my point or better yet an overall CAD map with a severity index. Then the snow clown maps would be more realistic. Should not be hard to take the soundings of the major cities along the east coast and combine them into an individual  CAD map for easier visualization. If they can do it for snow, they can do it for freezing rain and sleet. And before any one barks. I know they have sleet and freezing rain maps already but an overall "potential CAD Formation Map with a severity ranking"would be nice in the model runs since this feature is not readily apparent to many amateur posters who just look at the clown maps for discussion.

Even after yesterdays 60 degree temp I still have a decent glazed over snow pack, looks like a carbon copy of last week maybe a bit colder as there is no mention of plan rain in my forecast. Then another one possible next weekend

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10 hours ago, specialsk said:

Sorry, but this "sub-forum" is a joke. Worst participation on the whole site, especially as a major metro. Winter not going your way, then bail? Hmmm...the sports analogies to the hometown are stunning.

And before you start asking "Who are you?", rest assured I tried to start conversation here once or twice, but when you're not in "the clique," guess you don't count. Vicious circle.

Anyway, here's to Spring 2019.

Who are you? 

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3 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Not falling for it again, not falling for it again, not falling for it again....

I Hear ya. I'm going to be cautiously optimistic until a similar look continuously shows up within 7-10 days. With the mjo in favorable phases for a little while I would think its just a matter of time though that we get a decent looking h5. Even if it is only for a brief time. And hopefully we can just time something right when it does show up.

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10 hours ago, specialsk said:

Sorry, but this "sub-forum" is a joke. Worst participation on the whole site, especially as a major metro. Winter not going your way, then bail? Hmmm...the sports analogies to the hometown are stunning.

And before you start asking "Who are you?", rest assured I tried to start conversation here once or twice, but when you're not in "the clique," guess you don't count. Vicious circle.

Anyway, here's to Spring 2019.

^ The late winter meltdown never gets old. Someone get this guy a blizzard. 

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10 hours ago, specialsk said:

Sorry, but this "sub-forum" is a joke. Worst participation on the whole site, especially as a major metro. Winter not going your way, then bail? Hmmm...the sports analogies to the hometown are stunning.

And before you start asking "Who are you?", rest assured I tried to start conversation here once or twice, but when you're not in "the clique," guess you don't count. Vicious circle.

Anyway, here's to Spring 2019.

"Weather" is not just "winter" and snow/ice.  It is also severe (thunderstorms, straight-line winds, tornadoes, floods, hurricanes).  There are some here who actually follow other stuff too.  Imagine that.

On topic - it managed to hit 60 here yesterday but still have sleet-enhanced snow piles in the shady spots, even with the low yesterday of 39 and this morning still above freezing at 33.  Currently 38 and it seems to be moistening up a little (dp was in the teens earlier after CFP and now in the 20s).

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