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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

UKIE ups the ante 7-10" now SE PA (more N and W and central). Some of that is sleet. Significantly colder and weaker with primary almost comes darn close to wanting to transfer South of the region lol.

Ukie has been consistently wrong all winter

 

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GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month.

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

GEFS significantly better than the OP for the tues event. Many solid hits like the ukie and cmc thrown in there. LR also looks pretty good with a lot of blocking and storm threats throughout. Next week onward, should be threat after threat after threat. We won't win every time but this is 100% better than last month.

Nicely put....plenty of threats once the epic unicorn pattern arrives next weekend but doesn't mean we win every time. Blocking up top and ridge bridge looks off the charts. MJO and tanking SOI support it.

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29 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

Why do these looke so different 

7588AC0E-84D3-42F9-8E4D-BBC3CDCF4EE8.png

It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2"

Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W.

 

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's different because that map is not counting Monday mornings 1-2"

Also they are all too high because a significant portion Of Tuesday's event will be tainted with mix/IP. Would not anticipate 5-6" amounts outside of far N&W.

 

Even with 1-2 added is still not right. Shows 3 in quakertown on one map an over 6 on other. So per your map im getting over 3 from monday morning event? Highly unlikely 

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1 hour ago, Redmorninglight said:

I’m chasing snow. Thinking Vermont next weekend and Colorado week after. May not do Vermont if a cutter next weekend. Don’t need to to drive 7 hours to see rain. Last school ski trip to Poconos Sunday. Even up there, not much natural snow this year. 

If you go to VT go north.  Mt Mansfield did great this January, they nearly hit 100" on the stake but the rains have probably lessened the pack over the past few days.  Colorado looks real nice a week or two from now.

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The following weeks storm/setup is getting better and better 2018 redux beginning and I still am with last years sentiment late winter action is lame. I experienced the most March snow in my life last winter and it meant little to me i can't even recall the events because all they did was melt.

 

 

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While everyone is focused on current obs thread, who hacked the FV3? Has no less than 6 snow chances over next 2 weeks. A MECS, 3 SECS, and 2 minor 'events'. That would work for getting to N or AN snowfall that many forecasted at the start of the season. Even tho that would be a bust for me I have fingers crossed this verifies as I enjoy taking my children out to sled snowtube etc. Plus I enjoy tracking etc.

Aside from that weenie run, first things first....all guidance has upper level energy riding underneath our region this weekend with models mixed between a hit here and a slider just South. Good spot for now. In the back of my head I wont lie, there are thoughts of "I wonder if the seasonal trend will be at play here with the Mid Atlantic being the bullseye again and our area fringed?". The rich get richer type thing. But it's a couple days early to specify how far S the energy tracks.

Active times ahead!

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