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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


Rtd208
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Just now, The Iceman said:

I expect CAD signature to improve as we get closer. That 1044 mb high means business. clown map, but signifies the potential for this event. Only thing is where do we go in 5 days.... improvements towards a coastal exiting obx? let's hope. great trends thus far.

Yes...need to see the good trends and not the direction we were headed yesterday which was opposite. Still like a thump to mix to drizzle/rain but who knows....that could be off the table in a few days but that's the look I'm still seeing for now. CAD looks good, 50/50 and confluence looks good. One of the only things I see that always tends to turn us over or screw us is the slp in the G Lakes. Keep weakening that or rid it entirely and we are looking at a different scenario. 

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34 minutes ago, RedSky said:

You didn't see the run did you it's huge then keeps destroying through the end of the run i went to atari graphics noaa

JB has the effit3 on his side!
 

Used the ncep site. Maybe an old run then.

Misread your original post when u said end of next week I thought u were referring to the late week HECS hinted at by gfs and euro which FV3 has that as a weak clipper. We take.

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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:

ECM GFS and UKMET all different 

12z Euro went all in on the winter of azz thing, it hit's to our south on Monday morning, kills the mid week event and gets all warm and rainy the next weekend on what had been a MECS 

 

 

It trended better for mid week.

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15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

WOW 3rd straight GEFS run where a major block is showing up in the long range. I don;t think this one is noise. I'm on the 2nd half feb snow train.

 

500h_anom.na.png

How much are tickets?  I was buying them all winter.

To be fair, compared to last evening the models have improved drastically in midrange and LR.

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