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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


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7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Better that we are seeing things move E and/or South tbh. I would rather have it se and need to come west or even graze us se as opposed to a cutter but that's just me

Have you been following winter of 2019? everything S&E to this point and that is without the -NAO on it's way

 

 

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Nary a mention of the fvc3po with temps well below zero morning of MLK day? Even the gfs is in the low single digits. The fv3 loop of 2m temps is just ridiculous. Near the end of the run the entire Northeast part of the US  is below zero. I thought I saw a high of 4 degrees the one day. We know that likely wont verify but regardless there is some anomalous well BN cold on the way.  If u havent winterized yet u r just about out of time. 

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After the storm system next weekend, looks like the pattern gets overwhelmed with cold in the Northeast for the foreseeable future. Problem with that is most guidance looks dry as well tho who knows m how individual shortwaves will perform after next week. Wouldnt be surprised at all tho to see us go thru an extended period of cold/dry. 

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Keeping an eye on Friday....looks like a sneaky little event trying to move thru.

FV3 for the larger event over the weekend is one of the biggest impact ice/sleet storms I ever remember seeing modeled for i95. Philly verbatim sees 3-3.5" LE heavy ice and sleet followed by a burst of heavy snow. Then frigid cold. Would make 1994 look like child's play. Glaciers for weeks and no power up and down i95. 

 

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EPS overall look is colder. Probably more of a sleet/ice/snow....even some plain rain signature than all snow. Dont think it's all rain either.

Individual eps members are mixed. There are some HECS, some MECS, smattering of SECS.....some wild ice and sleet storms, some far NW crushers, some shutouts....everything but the kitchen sink.

That sick mass of below zero to the N is what has me concerned.

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The differences between the Euro and other guidance is the timing of the shortwave. The Euro delays the shortwave which allows for the TPV induced press to fully come through the area. The GFS is earlier which allows for it to blast through before any real cold air can funnel in. If I were to bet, I would think the TPV press would be undermodeled at this distance, but you don't know. Either way, the cold air in the wake of the storm is absolutely frigid. If a major snow and ice storm occurred like the Euro depicted, thousands would be without power with no heat, etc. That would be more damaging than the storm itself.

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

You gotta admit it's nice to look at but a PITA as far as driving,electricity (lack of) and down trees...

If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to impossible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. 

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23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If that run verified verbatim thru 384hrs unless you have a generator you would be screwed as a homeowner. You are talking 3"+ ice so assume massive loss of power. Doesn't get above freezing for a while so getting crews out in the ice to fix power next to possible. Then temps 15 below zero or less? Pipes in a house with those temps and no power are toast. Then who knows how much longer the freeze would continue based on that run but looks relentless. So yeah I'll pass. 

I'll pass for lots of reasons...a quarter inch or less looks nice on the trees the next morning, but beyond that I'd like mine as snow or even sleet please.

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Lots of tracking and opportunities coming over the next 14 days. Just to be a devil's advocate the 6z fv3 is a good example of how i95 could essentially fail during this good pattern. Lots of sleet and rain with minimal snow other than light stuff or wraparound variety. Likely is wrong but worth noting that these epic looking patterns dont always produce for the big cities but can favor NW areas quite a bit. Again likely wrong but I am mentioning this to keep expectations in check. Not everything that looks good on paper plays out exactly as hoped. With that said I am still hopeful and cautiously optimistic moving forward. 

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