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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2018-19 OBS Thread


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the clipper showing up on the 23rd has a much better chance to produce than the Xmas/boxing day storm imo could be a nice 2-4" event if we can swing it. Xmas storm needs a lot of work but with cold air nearby it's still a chance. Going to need good timing though in order for it to not be rain. LR ensembles still show the pattern quickly breaking down after a 5 day or so blocking period. massive trough in the west on both the GEFS and EPS towards the end of the runs, continuance from a few days ago. After Xmas period, we likely don't reload again until mid January. Those short little swings are how can score though so the xmas time deserves watching. If we can get a nice 3-6" storm in that time frame, we'll really be looking good. If we get skunked, then all of our eggs will be on the 2nd half of jan into feb which still look pretty good for now. Will still need to see some semblance of long term blocking though as we get close. 

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Dense fog this AM. Current WXSIM forecast for NW Chesco has 2.21" of rain - if this occurs this will become the wettest year since coop records began in 1894 - we are only 1.68" away....if it's gonna be this wet we might as well set a new record! Wxsim also shows some mixing with snow Sunday night

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The Nam model twice in the last 12 hours as said 5+ inches of snow for the LV for Monday. Why are there not more posters on this issue? The NAM is pretty good within 72 hours.  Even Mt Holly thinks this is a nothing burger.  My history with the NAM  for 30 years + is that it showing this for a couple of runs, its serious time.

 

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1 minute ago, Albedoman said:

The Nam model twice in the last 12 hours as said 5+ inches of snow for the LV for Monday. Why are there not more posters on this issue? The NAM is pretty good within 72 hours.  Even Mt Holly thinks this is a nothing burger.  My history with the NAM  for 30 years + is that it showing this for a couple of runs, its serious time.

 

What the hell is a nothing burger? Speaking of...I could go for a burger.

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26 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

The Nam model twice in the last 12 hours as said 5+ inches of snow for the LV for Monday. Why are there not more posters on this issue? The NAM is pretty good within 72 hours.  Even Mt Holly thinks this is a nothing burger.  My history with the NAM  for 30 years + is that it showing this for a couple of runs, its serious time.

 

Try the PA subforum....this is generally Philly itself and the immediate adjacent burbs for the most part. 

Mmmmm, burger.

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This is why I am concerned. The NAM has shown even without the clown maps  at least two runs in the last 24 hours of accumulating snow/ice. With an ULL over us,  and a redeveloping LP in the Atlantic, the ULL is stopped dead in its tracks  as colder air is drawn in creating  the potential for  a lot of frozen precip. I have seen this plenty of times before and even others like Cranky weather guy is seeing this as see here  DuaULeQXgAIq2kn.jpg

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Weather World offering up the possibility of a clipper threat Christmas Eve. Yeah i know clippers usually do crap on Jersey and are a PA thing and it's 10 days away but at least it's a chance. Five weeks of cold and no snow makes Jack a dull boy.

 

I'll easily take a clipper for Xmas eve which is fine but I want to stay clear of that nothing burger....

db.jpg

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5 hours ago, The Iceman said:

4indices (1).png

 

Need this to get better but if we can get the NAO to dip negative, the swing of the PNA from positive to negative with some blocking would actually be a good indicator for a storm in that time frame.

WAR continues reappearing on lots of guidance as well. Not getting much help anywhere it seems:

 

fv3p_z500a_atl_63.png

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For those of you that closely watch the weather and trends.....if you are a winter weather enthusiast and do not see what it clearly in our future for January and February...well I just don't get it. I clearly see an above normal snowfall winter with at least one major Noreaster in the offing. Now if you are like my wife...and most folks they will not be liking the upcoming winter season

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21 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

For those of you that closely watch the weather and trends.....if you are a winter weather enthusiast and do not see what it clearly in our future for January and February...well I just don't get it. I clearly see an above normal snowfall winter with at least one major Noreaster in the offing. Now if you are like my wife...and most folks they will not be liking the upcoming winter season

Paul, can you expand on what you are saying? What exactly are the clear trends  that you are seeing that are lining up for a big ticket winter? Only thing I am seeing is an active stj but the trend has been spotty irt wet/warmish wet/cold. Seems to be split and not really a clear look one way or the other. PAC hasn't been favorable....N Atl ridging has been very transient.....AO hasnt given us many clues. I see a clear signal and that is that we are going to need near-perfect timing and alot of luck to cash in like we had back in Nov where everything worked together. Nothing is going to come easy for us. Based on the past 4 weeks I am almost thinking that the Nov storm was pure luck and not a signal for where we are headed. I'm optimistic as we head forward but nothing on the horizon screams "winter of yore" to me for my area anyway.

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53 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

For those of you that closely watch the weather and trends.....if you are a winter weather enthusiast and do not see what it clearly in our future for January and February...well I just don't get it. I clearly see an above normal snowfall winter with at least one major Noreaster in the offing. Now if you are like my wife...and most folks they will not be liking the upcoming winter season

You may be correct but I'll believe it when it happens/see it. I'm seeing a bunch of avg/above avg temps...borderline precip for the next month+ if it falls at the correct time it will be frozen.

BTW, I'm not a late winter fan...from late Feb on is kinda mush/crap which tends to melt quickly. Give me mid Dec through the 3rd-4th week of Feb and now we're talking. We're going to lose a solid month+ the way things are looking now....could change but we may get stuck in a rut...we'll see. I'm just somewhat happy Christmas will be cold enough to be "Christmas" as it appears right now....any snow (an 1") would be a bonus.

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26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

BTW, I'm not a late winter fan...from late Feb on is kinda mush/crap which tends to melt quickly. Give me mid Dec through the 3rd-4th week of Feb and now we're talking. We're going to lose a solid month+ the way things are looking now....could change but we may get stuck in a rut...we'll see. I'm just somewhat happy Christmas will be cold enough to be "Christmas" as it appears right now....any snow (an 1") would be a bonus.

Exactly what I had been thinking lately.  The last couple of years seems like it either snows Nov/early Dec or March.  It's great to have snow any time but it would be nice to have some in Jan/Feb when it can actually stick around for awhile.

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3 minutes ago, Birdbean said:

Exactly what I had been thinking lately.  The last couple of years seems like it either snows Nov/early Dec or March.  It's great to have snow any time but it would be nice to have some in Jan/Feb when it can actually stick around for awhile.

Yep, I like snow then a cold/windy period for a while. Snow and 50F the next day kinda sucks which usually happens late in the winter.

Is your avatar the snow bowl vs Detroit? I watched that game about a week ago....totally nuts! Ranks up there w/the Fog bowl which was completely insane!!

 

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33 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Is this your avatar the snow bowl vs Detroit? I watched that game about a week ago....totally nuts! Ranks up there w/the Fog bowl which was completely insane!!

 

You got it on the snow bowl game.  I still remember it like it was yesterday.  Turned the game on a couple of minutes before it started and couldn't believe the intense rate the snow was coming down at.  Only had an inch or two here in Lancaster Co. that day.  I still watch the highlights once in awhile for poops and giggles.

 

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I thought going into this Nino season that medium range forecasting would be less challenging than during last year's Nina. Traditionally guidance performs statistically better at medium lead times due to a less active NS to "muck things up". What we have seen with regards to the pattern thus far imho has been more of a Nino/Nina blend but actually with a lean to the Nina-pattern side. NS has been extremely active and progressive/transient with near constant moving pieces.

My confidence in anything past 4 days or so is admittedly extremely low at this time until we can establish some blocking up top and slow the NS down a bit. We have seen this recently many times with storms that were progged to cut into the GL yet tracked underneath us, NAO blocking that looked to hold yet was transient, the AO which looked favorably negative but is bouncing back and forth with no discernible trending, periods that were supposed to be cold but have been 'mild' and vice versa.

You can feel the Nino stj forecasting if we look back to the suppressed storm last week.....it was fairly well forecast in advance BUT we saw how active the NS (Nina look) was and was causing some extreme variations with that forecast in the medium range. I guess what I'm saying is guidance for the time being will likely continue to handle the stj fairly decent but it is that NS that is going to cause bouncing around/headaches and short term shifts with storminess.

The overactive NS with the Nino stj might not be a bad thing AT ALL moving forward if they time favorably/properly (what else is new?). The chances for something big is probably higher than normal and the chances for that sneaking up on us us also increased. However we are going to need to feel the rain before we get to the potential rainbow with sliders (cold/dry) at times and cutter (warm/wet) at times. Just my $.02

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Philadelphia averages 2.5" through November and December. The November storm this year dropped around 3.5". Even if no snow falls the rest of December, Philly will still be above average heading into January. 

 

The same goes for Allentown area. If I use ABE averages for my area, I should average 5.3" through November and December.  I am at 8" for the season.

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14 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paul, can you expand on what you are saying? What exactly are the clear trends  that you are seeing that are lining up for a big ticket winter? Only thing I am seeing is an active stj but the trend has been spotty irt wet/warmish wet/cold. Seems to be split and not really a clear look one way or the other. PAC hasn't been favorable....N Atl ridging has been very transient.....AO hasnt given us many clues. I see a clear signal and that is that we are going to need near-perfect timing and alot of luck to cash in like we had back in Nov where everything worked together. Nothing is going to come easy for us. Based on the past 4 weeks I am almost thinking that the Nov storm was pure luck and not a signal for where we are headed. I'm optimistic as we head forward but nothing on the horizon screams "winter of yore" to me for my area anyway.

Hey Steve, while maybe not a winter of yore - I do see quite the wintry stretch coming up - I expect we will see a lot of the modeling catching on by right around Christmas time - it will then start to show a cold pattern setting in by about the 7th or 8th of January and continuing through much of February. As you know I like some analog years especially those with the expected late December stratwarm events over the pole - so I am riding 2002/03 as my heaviest weighted analog followed by 2014/15 with a little bit of 65/66. Those 3 get me to my slightly snowier year than last year when we had 55.5" of snow - heck 2002 even had a 60 show up on December 20th and we might have almost as warm a day toward that same date give or take a day next week. We even managed a Christmas day rain to snow event with 6" falling - the back and forth in temps then continued until winter really set in around the 11th - so with a little quicker evolution in my forecast we should be well positioned for some strong cold along with several storm chances by mid-January. Keep the faith my friends - if you like winter it is coming!!

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40 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Christmas clipper? aaaaand it's gone

 

 

Funny how, mentally...we view the details op runs in the LR as things that have already happened...when, in reality...it's just fantasy! We say "it lost the storm!" where in reality, the storm wasn't there to be lost or gained--but rather, it's the computer just getting it's thoughts together, lol Just a philosophical $.02 on the weird psychology of we snow lovers...lol

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