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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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15 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

I wonder if today might be the last day of real, super winter cold for us?  Slow moderation this week.  Snow/mix/rain system late weekend.  No super cold as that departs.  Perhaps a storm west of us around day 10.  By then we are at the back end of March and going into mud season.  Sure many more cold days but I am fine if this is the last of true arctic air till next winter

Tomorrow looks just as cold as today...pretty chilly Friday morning too although that may be a morning where CON/1P1 is 5F and you're at 15F with a breeze on the hill. I think we say bye to the deep winter cold mid morning Friday.

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Tomorrow looks just as cold as today...pretty chilly Friday morning too although that may be a morning where CON/1P1 is 5F and you're at 15F with a breeze on the hill. I think we say bye to the deep winter cold mid morning Friday.

Lots of virga and clouds right now, struggling in the upper teens with the wind blowing pretty good, blowing snow from time to time across the fields.  Sunday seems to keep trending colder with more frozen but that is another story

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Event totals: 0.6” Snow/0.05” L.E.

 

When I arrived back in Waterbury yesterday around 6:00 P.M. it was snowing at a pretty good clip.  The flakes were on the smaller side, probably 3 to 4 mm, but visibility was definitely down as I was driving to the house.  We had a couple of tenths down in the evening, but at this morning’s observations there was a total of 0.6”, so it must have picked back up again overnight.  The BTV NWS discussion says that this round of snow was from convective snow showers streaming over the area.  With the smaller flakes, the density of this round of snowfall was about twice the density of the previous night’s snow, but both have delivered similar total liquid equivalent.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.05 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 12.0

Snow Density: 8.3% H2O

Temperature: 5.9 F

Sky:  Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

 

There’s not much on the radar right now, but I can see the Mansfield and other areas of the Northern/Central Greens disappearing into a bit of snowfall.

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The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

Losing track of the number of these Strong Cutters with SE Downslope flow over the Western Green Slopes. I've already lost a bunch of shingles on my garage the faces East this winter from similar setups. 

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

The BTV NWS is starting to get a bit more detailed in their discussion of the weekend system.  Their thoughts from this morning are for 3 to 4 inches of front end snowfall on Sunday, then dry slot with potential for a bit of mixed precipitation.  They’re also noting the potential for several inches of backside snow as we move into the beginning of next week:

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

As of 309 AM EST Thursday...Guidance in good agreement with band of mostly snow developing from southwest to northeast across our cwa on Sunday associated with modest low to mid level waa. Ribbon of 850 to 500mb moisture is relatively narrow, along with window of favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing, so anticipate qpf/snowfall to generally be light. In addition, mid level dry slot and brisk 850mb winds of 45 to 60 knots will create some downslope shadowing across the cpv. Expect snowfall of a dusting to 3 or 4 inches, highest in the dacks and nek. Some localized gusty southeast downslope winds of 35 to 40 mph possible, but some uncertainty on amount of mixing with strong low level inversion and precip occurring. Higher resolution models will help determine strength of downslope winds in the upcoming days. Otherwise, cwa briefly gets into the warm sector with progged 925mb to 850mb temps near 0c by 18z Sunday, supporting a change to rain or wintry mix. However, as profiles warm enough to support liquid, the best lift/moisture is shifting to our east, so probably more like areas of drizzle/freezing drizzle possible on Sunday aftn. Temps should warm into the l30s east of the Greens to mid 30s to near 40 elsewhere, while summits hold in the upper 20s to near 30f. Cold front swings thru on Sunday night with progged 925mb to 850mb temps falling below 0c by 06z, supporting a change back to all snow. Once again qpf will be light and mainly confined to the mountains. GFS/ECMWF shows potent s/w energy and ribbon of deep 850 to 500mb rh moving across our cwa on Monday Night into Tues. This energy/lift, combined with developing upslope flow behind secondary cold front will produce several inches of snow in the mountains overnight. Temps cool back into the 20s to near 30f for Tues as 850mb values drop btwn -13c and -16c. Another ridge develops for midweek with temps slowly rebounding to near normal values by Weds into Thurs. Expect large swings in daily temps with lows single digits/teens and highs upper 20s to upper 30s.

josh fox going 4-7" above 3000' and 2-4" below for the sunday deal.

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-1.4° F this morning.

Lets keep winter going please! I want 6 more weeks of cold and snow like last year so we can keep mud and black fly season to a minimum. 

Last April was like deep winter here with lots of chilly days in the 30s and nights well below freezing in the teens and 20s. Once the rubber band snapped at the start of May, spring came in a hurry going from deep snow pack to leaf out in about 2 weeks, which is how I'd like to do it every year. Long drawn out mud seasons suck.

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4 hours ago, Hitman said:

josh fox going 4-7" above 3000' and 2-4" below for the sunday deal.

I'm going to be much lower than that...1-3" of snow/sleet at all elevations for the front end...backside upslope will be minimal IMO until Monday.

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Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

With the consistent daily snowfall this week it’s been feeling like December, although it looks like things will be a bit less active for the next couple of days until the weekend system.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.2 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

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Just now, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 0.5” Snow/0.02” L.E.

 

With the consistent daily snowfall this week it’s been feeling like December, although it looks like things will be a bit less active for the next couple of days until the weekend system.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.5 inches

New Liquid: 0.02 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.0

Snow Density: 4.0% H2O

Temperature: 16.2 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 31.0 inches

Cold, daily snow showers is the name of the game for the past week.

Flakes daily, not adding up to anything noteworthy but "snowy climate" type days.

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

I'm going to be much lower than that...1-3" of snow/sleet at all elevations for the front end...backside upslope will be minimal IMO until Monday.

Either way, I’m taking a powder day Monday.  Expecting good conditions.

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Just now, Hitman said:

Either way, I’m taking a powder day Monday.  Expecting good conditions.

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

Wish I could stick around for Tuesday.  But alas, reality intrudes.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I doubt it warms up enough to matter/melt.  Might get damp then crunchy in the lower elevations, but for Sugarbush and Stowe on the eastern slope, the cold air seems to hold a bit better under the ridgeline (so overall it's likely even another net gain at elevation of moisture and frozen precip).

Tuesday looks like a good day to me.  There's been some decent upslope signals coming in for Monday into Tuesday.  Long way to go though in terms of confidence, as it'll revolve around spokes of energy timing with flow/moisture.

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

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3 hours ago, Zand said:

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

I'm looking at something similar.  Either wildcat/sugarbush sun, smugg/stowe/ jay mon and tues. That is if I ever get back from my CT work trip... 

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11 hours ago, Zand said:

Based on current forecasts, looking at skiing Sugarbush Sunday, Smuggs Monday, and Stowe Tuesday. If there's a lot of windholds Sunday I like Sugarbush for at least having Valley House open. Smuggs Monday mainly because it would add 45 minutes to the ride up/back so would rather do that on the day I don't have to travel, plus they've been striking gold on NW flows this year. Stowe Tuesday will hopefully be freshened up.

Would you do those in a different order if you were me?

That sounds great... I honestly don't think the order matters, but I know you're experience at Stowe will be much better mid-week than on a weekend.  It's an entirely different ski area Monday through Friday. 

The EURO looks good for some snow through Tuesday morning:

xxZg89d.png

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BTV declared the lake completely frozen over for the first time since 2015 when we had that record cold February.

It's been constant winter this year on the ground.  Since November.  Even the second half of October seemed cold and snowy.

53618327_2542933769111842_91092368414914

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10 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The EURO looks good for some snow through Tuesday morning:

xxZg89d.png

Well, the Mansfield elevation point forecast has gone back and forth over the past few days with a bit of mixing, but the latest looks pretty nice.  It’s hard to complain about a forecast like this when a storm is passing to the northwest:

09MAR19A.jpg

The text suggests something in the 5-8” range through Tuesday, which would be fairly in line with that ECMWF map.

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Event totals: 1.0” Snow/0.09” L.E.

 

Details from the 10:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.09 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 11.1

Snow Density: 9.0% H2O

Temperature: 30.0 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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Event totals: 1.1” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 34.2 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 to 2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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I was surprised to see it stay primarily, if not all snow, except for some freezing mist/drizzle in the dry slot today.  Nice evening burst of snow.  I thought we might be raining.

Decent upslope signal for the northern mountains tomorrow into early Tuesday morning.

0Lss9Na.png

 

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Event totals: 1.5” Snow/0.17” L.E.

 

Details from the 11:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: 0.07 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 5.7

Snow Density: 17.5% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky:  Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 30.5 inches

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Pretty much all snow except for a few evening pingers or graupel.  2.6 ish but with crazy drifting.  I am still ahead of last years total to date by about 3 inches but that will change this week as this was the week last year when I had back to back 18 inch storms.  (90 vs 87").  I ended up with 125" last year.

 

The snow is waist deep in parts of the yard but I have not tried to get a base reading. 

This garden bench is 33" high.  The snow is now a bit deeper as this picture was from last week.

 

 

 

113 alt.jpg

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I still think a short duration but heavy squall type upslope event will take place this evening and tonight north of I89.

Even the global models have some decent QPF, with the meso-models up around 0.4-0.6". 

I think the speed has the QPF over-done and some of that convective looking stuff is likely graupel, but 3-6" tonight at the northern Green ski areas seems likely.

00z EURO

Z8w8DKH.png

12z GFS still with 0.3-0.4" for Spine.

mywpssM.png

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