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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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With the current system winding down, I took a look at the snowfall totals stand since the warm section of Winter Storm Carter over the weekend.  For the resorts that have them available, I took the 7-day totals, which should be fairly representative of what’s fallen atop the old base.  Here’s the north to south listing of available snowfall totals from the Vermont ski areas along the spine:

Jay Peak: 16”

Smuggler’s Notch: 21”

Stowe: 20”

Bolton Valley: 12”

Pico: 7”

Killington: 7”

Bromley: 9”

 

A quick check on the modeling suggests the next system would be coming through the area tomorrow night.  In the BTV NWS AFD it’s described as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave, with accumulations expected to be fairly light.

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

631 AM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

As of 617 AM EST Friday...Saturday will start out with sunshine, but clouds will increase through the afternoon as a weak clipper low/upper shortwave approaches from the northwest. Snow showers will spread in from the west Saturday afternoon ahead of this system, but limited moisture and weak forcing will keep daytime snow accumulation light. Saturday`s highs will once again be well below normal, in the upper teens to mid 20s.

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

As of 242 AM EST Friday...Lingering snow showers are expected across the Adirondacks and Green Mountains Saturday night with the axis of the upper level trough moving through the region. As the trough moves through, moisture will begin to decrease pretty rapidly which will help limit the areal coverage and intensity of any lingering snow showers.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol saving your truck and chickens from the white stuff since winters of yore.

Wish I could funnel that over Brian’s fanny to my backyard. Got the sustained cold at least, but not fond of frozen brown ground.

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Event totals: 2.7” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

We picked up an additional 0.4” of extremely dry fluff with this morning’s activity, and there’s still a bit of light snowfall around this evening that I’m attributing to the same system.  There do appear to be chances for light snow continuing through the weekend and into next week:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

329 PM EST Fri Dec 7 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A few weak disturbances will bring chances for light snow showers over the weekend and early next week, as well as reinforcing shots of below normal temperatures.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.4 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 20.1 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1-2 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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Suffering through another powder day on Mansfield...these last 4 weeks will go down in the sea scrolls of yore for best start to a ski season I've ever seen.

 

48090629_10103602097943710_8508208313614

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8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Nice to see you post Jeremy.  Is Raleigh under all kinds of snow emergancy's?  5" probably shut the city down.  Glad your getting some snow down there.  Happy Holidays.....

Yeah down here this will be a disaster. Hundreds of thousands of power outages too, especially wherever a period of ZR occurs. The infrastructure can't handle it with little in the way of snow removal equipment. It will be high impact if it pans out.

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Event totals: 2.8” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.1 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: -2.9 F

Sky:  Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

 

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Climbed Cardigan this morning /afternoon. Driving up 93 was surprised not to see really any snow until exit 18, Northfield. Built pretty quickly after exit 20, Laconia. Two feet of snow on higher elevations of mountain. Driving back towards Newfound Lake, I was looking up at the ridge for wxeyenh's house!

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Big flakes falling in the flood lights.  What a stretch of days with snow falling.  Great snow growth, cold low level generated stuff.  Pulse of moisture on westerly flow, snow blowing downwind of radar echoes a bit too probably.

IMG_1514.GIF.5f0c80bac63b57221837c3afb919144b.GIF

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Big flakes falling in the flood lights.  What a stretch of days with snow falling.  Great snow growth, cold low level generated stuff.  Pulse of moisture on westerly flow, snow blowing downwind of radar echoes a bit too probably.

Yeah, we're officially in the snow growth zone here at GYX...

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Light snow falling here at my house. The mountain has really been pumping snow (worried about possible rains?), and in these temps (just warmed up above 0) it looks (and sounds) like a volcano from my house lol. 

25AE606B-5D9D-4F5C-A31C-625F4C08553A.jpeg

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I had 1.2" of dendrite fluff from a seemingly random blob of lake effect moisture that drifted down from the WNW. It's amazing what happens when a little puff of moist air in the DGZ gets lifted over the Green Mountains.

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Another morning, another fluffer nutter coating on the car.  About 3/4", just blows right off as you drive away.  Wintry appeal on all the little twigs and branches with this round of calm snowfall.

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Event totals: 1.3” Snow/0.01” L.E.

 

I didn’t know about the snow falling last night until I saw PF’s post with the radar image, but I caught it in time to make some 12:00 A.M. observations.  We’ve already had some fluffy rounds of snow this season, but indeed last night’s snowfall was right up there.  Sometimes you can get a sense of the flake structure by the rate at which the snow fall through the air, and last night that rate was slooooooow.  I’ve had some cores this season where I could only pull a trace of liquid, so didn’t calculate the snow to liquid ratio, but last night’s analysis (0.88 mL of liquid from a 1.1” core) did actually round to 0.01” of liquid and allow for a calculation.  It’s the highest ratio I’ve seen so far this season.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.01 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 110.0

Snow Density: 0.9% H2O

Temperature: 14.7 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2-10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.2 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 12.9 F

Sky:  Flurries

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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I was up at the mountain yesterday morning for what was actually Bolton Valley’s first “official” day of the season, and can pass along a quick report and some pictures.  Temperatures were cold to start, with single digits F, and then it was well up into the teens F by the time I left around midday.  The settled powder depths we found were just about a foot everywhere, so I suspect the 14 inches they’re reported over the week is a bit on the low side, but it could depend where during the settling cycles they made their measurements.  Bottomless powder turns were available on moderate and low angle terrain, but anything with a black diamond pitch or more, you’d still be hitting the subsurface at times because there just wasn’t enough liquid equivalent to get to that level.  Skiing was still fine on those steeper pitches, but mid and low-angle stuff was really sweet.  I took a trip up through one of the main single family home neighborhoods up there, which I think goes up to around 2,400’, and they are loaded with snow.  The snowpack is probably only about two feet or so, but after the addition of this week’s fluffy snow you can see a lot of spots where it’s just piling up on roof lines, roof snow is merging with the ground snow piles, etc.  I’ve got a few images from the day below, and the full report is available at our website.

08DEC18C.jpg

08DEC18B.jpg

08DEC18G.jpg

08DEC18A.jpg

08DEC18E.jpg

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Have to thread the needle to find the fresh powder after a busy weekend, enjoying the mid-winter turns while they are here.  This week should be sweet, some sunshine and reasonable temps.

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6 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Are we still in record territory regarding the snow stake? 20+", that's insane upslope.

48" at the stake... record for today is 56" in 1981.  Looks like December 5th was the end of the record breaking streak for snow depth.  Very solid base with a deep layer of settled powder on top.  There seemed like at least 3" of fluffy snowfall last night in the Notch area and off the Gondola, too.  It all helps out.

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11 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Nice Eyewall!  Missed your snow pics.

Thank you! Just northwest of me saw 14" and plenty of areas of a foot or more in the Triad which is very rare in these parts. The unfortunate thing is the rain after that. The high terrain got a couple of feet.

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