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NNE Winter Thread

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Event totals: 3.3” Snow/0.46” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.9 inches

New Liquid: 0.19 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.0

Snow Density: 10.0% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky:  Snow (5 to 10 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 14.0 inches

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Looks pretty elevation dependent again(guess not that surprising with this system), doesn't look like a whole lot in the middle of Manchester at 715ft.

current.jpg?1547048853

 

 

Definitely more "sticky" at my place higher around 1100ft.  Had my wife measure and she said 4" new a couple hours ago. 

 

image.thumb.png.76eb745b0a875d59bf3794d4f280831e.png

 

 

 

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With the midmorning update from the BTV NWS, there have been some upgrades to the advisories and snow maps. Additional Winter Storm Warnings have been added as noted in the discussion text below due to accumulations that have already taken place:

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Burlington VT

1041 AM EST Wed Jan 9 2019

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 1027 AM EST Wednesday...Winter Storm Warnings and Winter

Weather Advisories remain in place across the entire area.

 

Several changes to the forecast this morning as snow reports come in. Winter Weather Advisories have been upgraded to Warnings for Northern Franklin in New York, western Chittenden and western Franklin in Vermont, and for Windsor and Orange in Vermont. The reason is that we`ve already got reports of 4 to 6 inches of heavy wet snow and with more snow expected over the next hour of so we`ll push the 6 inches in 12 hours criteria. Power outages are already starting to creep up and with low snow ratios this morning I anticipate some snow loading to continue to become an issue for some locations.

09JAN19C.jpg

The projected accumulations map does have some of that 18-24” shading along the spine now, which would be more consistent with the point forecasts from earlier.  The high end of the mountain point forecasts around here are actually getting close to 30 inches now, on top of what has already fallen, which would actually be getting up to that next tier, but the current map is only through 7:00 P.M. tomorrow.

Today

Snow. Steady temperature around 23. Windy, with a northwest wind 25 to 30 mph increasing to 34 to 39 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow. Low around 13. Wind chill values as low as -6. Windy, with a northwest wind 32 to 37 mph decreasing to 26 to 31 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Thursday

Snow showers. Temperature falling to around 4 by 5pm. Wind chill values as low as -23. Windy, with a northwest wind 36 to 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Thursday Night

Snow showers likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around -4. Wind chill values as low as -27. Blustery, with a northwest wind 22 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of snow showers before 9am. Partly sunny and cold, with a high near 8. Blustery, with a northwest wind 20 to 24 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

09JAN19D.jpg

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Event totals: 6.0” Snow/0.76” L.E.

 

Unlike the larger flakes that came down before dawn today, much of the morning here at the house has seen smaller, more synoptic-like flakes.  Consistent with the flake size and temperatures hovering up and down around the freezing mark, snow density was 11.1% H2O.  Snowfall has been quite consistent throughout the period though, running in the ½”/hr. range.

 

Details from the 12:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.7 inches

New Liquid: 0.30 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 9.0

Snow Density: 11.1% H2O

Temperature: 33.8 F

Sky:  Light Snow (1 to 5 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 16.0 inches

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Looks pretty elevation dependent again(guess not that surprising with this system), doesn't look like a whole lot in the middle of Manchester at 715ft.

current.jpg?1547048853

 

 

Definitely more "sticky" at my place higher around 1100ft.  Had my wife measure and she said 4" new a couple hours ago. 

 

image.thumb.png.76eb745b0a875d59bf3794d4f280831e.png

 

 

 

What an incredibly elevation dependent winter so far. Still sitting on that 6-12” of ice from November at 1400’ on the east side. Meanwhile there has been almost nothing down in the valley. 

Banding so far in this event seems focused just to the south towards the Taconics and Berkshires. I have noticed this occur in the past. Things should fill in later.

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Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

What an incredibly elevation dependent winter so far. Still sitting on that 6-12” of ice from November at 1400’ on the east side. Meanwhile there has been almost nothing down in the valley. 

Banding so far in this event seems focused just to the south towards the Taconics and Berkshires. I have noticed this occur in the past. Things should fill in later.

Yep, flow is definitely blocked hence the radar look of the best returns struggling to make it over the taconics and into the valley here and over to the greens and east slope towns. Yes, been a number of events this year with a pretty blocked flow. That NOV 2016 uplsope event was pretty blocked if I recall.

Flow becomes less blocked moving forward, but not sure how much moisture will be left down here, NVT is a different story.

 

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8" new with moderate snow. It was very wet, but it's now drying out. 

Trees are bending a bit, but not at all like the post Thanksgiving storm. Roads are treacherous around here, especially route 8 through Searsburg Pass. 

Chains are required for truckers and route 9 in Woodford is currently closed due to the conditions. Just wet roads in the Deerfield Valley, however. 

 

49370391_1840901252687889_5541014364577857536_o.jpg

49739260_1840901426021205_1763068308183056384_o.jpg

49896807_1840900576021290_5871211587733291008_o.jpg

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58 minutes ago, alex said:

11" total here from the synoptic part of the storm. Tough skiing - this snow is HEAVY!!! 75.8 for the season. Snow stake is plastered so I can't tell what it's up to

Damn, ding ding ding winner.  The EURO was pretty darn good in putting your area in the firehose of heavy snow when the NAM yesterday wanted it south of the Whites with the synoptic portion of the event.

We got 4-5" in town from what I can see eyeballing it, just got home though.  Mountain seemed more like 6-8" but it was pounding high winds.

The one thing that has surprised me is how dense the snow is and still dense snow is falling.  When I left the mountain it was pouring snow but a lot of it was graupel and heavily rimed flakes.  Pretty much like 6-7" of sand in the parking lot and still piling up.  No fake fluff so far...just dense storm snow.

Looks like temps should start crashing tonight so maybe we can up the ratios a bit. 

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51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Damn, ding ding ding winner.  The EURO was pretty darn good in putting your area in the firehose of heavy snow when the NAM yesterday wanted it south of the Whites with the synoptic portion of the event.

We got 4-5" in town from what I can see eyeballing it, just got home though.  Mountain seemed more like 6-8" but it was pounding high winds.

The one thing that has surprised me is how dense the snow is and still dense snow is falling.  When I left the mountain it was pouring snow but a lot of it was graupel and heavily rimed flakes.  Pretty much like 6-7" of sand in the parking lot and still piling up.  No fake fluff so far...just dense storm snow.

Looks like temps should start crashing tonight so maybe we can up the ratios a bit. 

It’s weird. I love 8”’of dense snow, but 2’ of it looses allure lol. If that makes sense. Good base builder there. Happy Birthday man.

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Event totals: 7.6” Snow/0.97” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.21 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.6

Snow Density: 13.1% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

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2 hours ago, J.Spin said:

Event totals: 7.6” Snow/0.97” L.E.

 

Details from the 6:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.21 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 7.6

Snow Density: 13.1% H2O

Temperature: 33.6 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 8 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 16.5 inches

Your obs show the dense snow... the ratios so far have been on the low side.  Just a base-building 1" of QPF for the spine based on your observations, maybe more for higher elevations. 

Now I feel like something has changed.  The flakes are huge and fluffy.  And falling pretty furiously.

Jan_9_930pm.gif.2376cb45dc14a1052240efd14f97f6c8.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Your obs show the dense snow... the ratios so far have been on the low side.  Just a base-building 1" of QPF for the spine based on your observations, maybe more for higher elevations. 

Now I feel like something has changed.  The flakes are huge and fluffy.  And falling pretty furiously.

Jan_9_930pm.gif.2376cb45dc14a1052240efd14f97f6c8.gif

 

Hot damn, that is beautiful

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3" here in South PWM between the past 2 days, split evenly at 1.5" each day.

28.4" YTD.  Pretty respectable given the lousy pattern, and only one event > 6" (11/20 which was 7")

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Your obs show the dense snow... the ratios so far have been on the low side.  Just a base-building 1" of QPF for the spine based on your observations, maybe more for higher elevations. 

Now I feel like something has changed.  The flakes are huge and fluffy.  And falling pretty furiously.

Jan_9_930pm.gif.2376cb45dc14a1052240efd14f97f6c8.gif

 

You are absolutely right about the change.  It’s been small rimed flakes and graupel most of the day, and the density of my past three sets of observations with snow in the 10-13% H2O range definitely attests to that.  It was right around 9:30 P.M. when the structure of the flakes changed here.  I can’t recall the last time I had to run the snow blower, since we’ve simply been driving and packing down all these storms for probably about a month, but this storm has been large enough (passing 1” L.E. now) that it was finally time.  I was out there clearing the driveway when the change happened, and it was very obvious.  I’ll be taking my next set of observations at midnight, and the density should definitely be coming down.  Unfortunately this next core will be a mix of the dense snow and this potentially lighter snow, but we’ll see what it says.

Anyway, this is just what we like – perfect right-side-up deposition for those powder turns.  Ty and I popped up to Bolton for a few runs this afternoon and indeed the snow was dense, but boy was it a resurfacing.  We were only on the lower mountain because Vista was on wind hold, but if you were on the new snow there was no touching the subsurface.  You typically sunk into the powder just a few inches anyway because of the density.  I’ll post a report and a few pictures when I get a chance.

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3.5” this morning here. Had a bout freezing rain before the NW winds started blowing. 

If it can snow like it was on Sheffield heights   an hour ago, things should be deep tomorrow :)

 

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Event totals: 9.9” Snow/1.19” L.E.

 

Details from the 12:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 2.3 inches

New Liquid: 0.22 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 10.5

Snow Density: 9.6% H2O

Temperature: 30.4 F

Sky:  Light Snow (2 to 6 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 18.5 inches

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Just now, powderfreak said:

Mountains got crushed last night.  Still crushing.  Another 7-12" overnight at the ski resorts it seems.

Eyeballing 3-4" at home since 11pm or so.

Your avatar looks like Austria now. :lol: 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Your avatar looks like Austria now. :lol: 

Yes!  Some of those photos from that region are insane.  I saw one of a chairlift completely hurried up over the chairs and everything.

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