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wxmanmitch

NNE Winter Thread

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's funny because there isn't a single person I know disappointed right now...dust on crust or whatever.  Just experienced the best November you'll ever see for cold/snow combo...most of my friends are like "now I can get all the things done that I didn't in November" ha.  The pow will be back.  The snowpack is here for the winter now.

Hmm..never said I was disappointed, just a statement that dust on crust s*cks in December...because it does to me...just an opinion.  Uber happy for you and your friends...or whatever.

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9 hours ago, tamarack said:

Most anomalous thing 

Snowpack reached 14", topping the 11" recorded in Nov. 2014.  The month had 174 SDDs.  The total for all 20 previous years was 194.

This is perhaps the most notable stat from Nov

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It's funny because there isn't a single person I know disappointed right now...dust on crust or whatever.  Just experienced the best November you'll ever see for cold/snow combo...most of my friends are like "now I can get all the things done that I didn't in November" ha.  The pow will be back.  The snowpack is here for the winter now.

Winter came in here on November 13th with a vengeance.  People had not finished raking the oak leaves.  4" of snow that day and that was the last I saw of bare ground.  Then it was just like midwinter, frequent snows and cold.  A lot of rain yesterday soaked through the heavy snow from last week and now with the freeze the snow becomes glaciated and very hard to melt.  It would take quite a cutter and warm wave to melt this.  

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Event totals: 2.7” Snow/1.12” L.E.

Since there was no obvious break in the precipitation or new system, and the BTV NWS indicates that we’re dealing with leftover moisture, I’ve put all the backside snow from yesterday and today as part of Winter Storm Carter.

We’d picked up a tenth of an inch of snow when I cleared the boards at 6:00 PM yesterday evening, and then light snow brought an inch overnight.  The more dramatic snowfall has been taking place this morning however, with large flakes and visibilities in the 400-500’ range.  Snowfall rates were well over an inch an hour at times because after I cleared the boards, there was another 0.8” of snow on them within about 30 minutes.  I grabbed a recent radar shot, which shows some of those strong echoes embedded in the northwest flow:

04DEC18A.gif

 

Some comments from the BTV NWS in their AFD:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...As of 602 AM EST Tuesday...Quick update to expand areal coverage of snow showers this morning especially northern/central VT mountains and northern Dacks. Radar shows light returns over western/northern dacks and portions of the Green Mountains in Vermont which should prevail for another couple of hours. The combination of weak channeled 5h vort, favorable upslope flow, and low level cold air advection helping to squeeze out moisture is producing this snow shower activity. Additional snowfall accumulations will be light and generally under an inch. Given good rh in favorable snow growth, expect big fluff factor with some localized higher amounts possible in the most persistent snow shower activity. Still the combination of new snowfall and falling temps could produce some localized areas of slippery travel during the morning commute.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 1.0 inches

New Liquid: 0.06 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 16.7

Snow Density: 6.0% H2O

Temperature: 25.3 F

Sky: Light/Moderate Snow (2-15 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 8.0 inches

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14 hours ago, Albert A Clipper said:

Hmm..never said I was disappointed, just a statement that dust on crust s*cks in December...because it does to me...just an opinion.  Uber happy for you and your friends...or whatever.

lol dripping with sarcasm there.  Ha it's true, it does suck.  

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14 hours ago, wxeyeNH said:

Winter came in here on November 13th with a vengeance.  People had not finished raking the oak leaves.  4" of snow that day and that was the last I saw of bare ground.  Then it was just like midwinter, frequent snows and cold.  A lot of rain yesterday soaked through the heavy snow from last week and now with the freeze the snow becomes glaciated and very hard to melt.  It would take quite a cutter and warm wave to melt this.  

Yeah the snowpack is frozen solid now but we have been lucky as even this morning there's an inch of snow with flakes in the air.  Freshens up the snowpack and gets a wintry vibe back after the rain event.  Even an inch on the trees, roads and cars makes the old snowpack look new again.  

 

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12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah the snowpack is frozen solid now but we have been lucky as even this morning there's an inch of snow with flakes in the air.  Freshens up the snowpack and gets a wintry vibe back after the rain event.  Even an inch on the trees, roads and cars makes the old snowpack look new again.  

 

Some pretty good snow showers have made it over the greens into my area. 2-mile vis stuff.  Starting to refresh the pack.  If I could score a 1/2" I would be happy although it will sublimate away. 

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5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Some pretty good snow showers have made it over the greens into my area. 2-mile vis stuff.  Starting to refresh the pack.  If I could score a 1/2" I would be happy although it will sublimate away. 

Getting my tires put on in Morrisville and it's just dumping out.  Fat fluffy dendrites.

IMG_1467.thumb.JPG.f7045f6d000415ee26a0c07d1cc5f8e5.JPG

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22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Getting my tires put on in Morrisville and it's just dumping out.  Fat fluffy dendrites.

Yeah, I’ve been watching on my web cam and it looks like we’ve picked up 3 inches or so since I cleared the boards this morning.  You can really see that moisture pouring into the Winooski Valley/Bolton Valley areas.  I’m surprised it’s not pounding down on the Bolton Valley Live Web Cam, but I guess it might be hitting a bit downstream.  They did pick up 2-3” overnight though.

04DEC18B.gif

04DEC18A.jpg

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Nice JSpin!

Damn, 3" fresh since this morning is a great little event.  

Crazy variable...we were just at Paines Tree Farm grabbing an Xmas tree on the Stowe/Morrisville line and they had 2-3" of fluff there.  Then here at home it's back to about 1-1.5".  

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All of these pics have me chomping at the bit down here. As it stands I am on the bubble for late this weekend in NC but it is all too easy to go against you out here.

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21 hours ago, Albert A Clipper said:

couple of shortwaves rotating through Thurs nite and again sat nite should soften things up a bit...

Yeah, I’m sure PF would agree that shortwaves are a bread and butter part of our enhanced snowfall here that really help to bring things to that next level in terms of snow quality and powder skiing.  I’d argue that today was a great example as noted in the BTV NWS forecast discussion:

As of 943 AM EST Tuesday...Water vapor shows developing mid/upper level trof across the NE Conus with embedded short wave energy approaching the SLV. This enhanced lift combined with leftover low level moisture on northwest upslope flow continues to produce scattered flurries and snow showers thru 15z this morning.

Shortwaves certainly improve the ski conditions, but they’re also an important part of creating that wintry, snow globe ambiance in the mountain towns and resort areas along the spine.  It's the reason the local convenience marts and country stores throughout the Northern Greens have trinkets like these:

ILoveShortwaves.jpg

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Event totals: 5.8” Snow/1.24” L.E.

 

With today’s activity as the back end of Winter Storm Carter, it goes down as 1.6” of snow on the front end, and 4.2” of snow on the back end for the storm cycle.  So, the 2-3” of back end snow that was in the local forecast was certainly met.  It’s classic back end snow, upslope snow, coming in at a density of roughly 4% H2O.

 

Details from the 5:00 P.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 3.1 inches

New Liquid: 0.12 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 25.8

Snow Density: 3.9% H2O

Temperature: 18.3 F

Sky: Partly Cloudy

Snow at the stake: 10.0 inches

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0.7" last night here, so a nice little pack refresher. 

It looks like those streamers up north were definitely Lake Champlain enhanced. Once the surface wind goes N of NW, it's pretty much game over here for upslope.

Thursday night, Friday morning could produce as a decent little northern stream wave comes through. 12k NAM putting out a couple of inches here. 

At least there's something to track as the late weekend, early next week storm looks like a classic El Nino low rider that stays to our south. 

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Skiing today was much better than expected.

I found about 3-5" of powder on top of the new crust (which is unbreakable) and it actually led to some really good turns in the glades.  The glades were sheltered from the high winds that caused the trails to be more variable (you had to figure out where the new snow had drifted to and plan your turns around that). 

Either way, this was a great little Northern Greens refresh, as without this new snow it would've been terrible...but instead turned into a fun afternoon hunting for stashes in the woods.  Lower angle stuff (like Nosedive Glades pictured here) skied best but even some of the steeper woods had some fun turns.  Glad to have the upslope save the skiing again to some degree.

4VWhsHL.jpg

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Event totals: 0.3” Snow/Trace L.E.

I expected to find clear collection boards this morning with the last vestiges of Winter Storm Carter leaving yesterday, but that wasn’t the case.  There was 0.3” of fluff on the boards and moderately-sized flakes floating gently down among a partly cloudy sky.  I can’t get a clear feature associated with the snowfall because it’s not mentioned in the AFD, so I’m using the terminology that the BTV NWS is using and going with “Light snow for parts of the central VT mountains”.  Related text from the BTV NWS forecast discussion is below:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

626 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...Lots of little features making for a challenging forecast the next 12 to 36 hours. First all models are struggling with current rh profiles and associated cloud cover this morning based on obs/ir satl trends. Web cams have even shown some light snow at times at Waterbury/Westford and Middlesex. Have continued to mention very light snow thru 12z for parts of central VT mountains.

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

New Snow: 0.3 inches

New Liquid: Trace

Temperature: 9.3 F

Sky: Flurries/Light Snow (3-12 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 9.0 inches

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On ‎12‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 9:47 AM, J.Spin said:

It looks like the precipitation changed back to snow at around 7:15 A.M. this morning on the Lincoln Peak Snow Cam, and accumulation has already begun there.  Snow levels are supposed to drop all the way to the valleys later this afternoon as the colder air moves in.  Our point forecast in the valley suggests 2-3” of snow through tomorrow, and the Mansfield point forecast has 3-8” during the period.

Taking a look at the various models and the BTV NWS forecast discussion, it looks like there are three potential snow events to consider over the course of the next several days:

1) Monday-Tuesday with the current system

2) Thursday-Friday with a modified arctic boundary and 5h short wave energy

3) Saturday-Monday with what looks like a possible weak northern stream impulse, or a variation of that if other energy gets involved

I guess there’s a potential bonus round of snow tonight that wasn’t on the initial outlook for the week.  It doesn’t really show up on the medium range guidance, but some of the shorter term/mesoscale models show it:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 618 AM EST Wednesday...For tonight, interesting setup with two weak pieces of energy coming together over northern VT, first approaches region from the northwest, while 2nd is rotating around closed 5h circulation to our south. Thinking these short waves will produce just enough lift, with developing moisture in the favorable snow growth area to produce a period of light accumulating snowfall across the mountains of northern/central VT, including the NEK. I have bumped pops into the chc/low likely range for tonight as latest 06z NAM12km has qpf values of 0.04 to 0.08, with highest amounts across the mountains of northern VT near Jay Peak. Thermal profiles and moisture indicate snow ratios should be 20 to 30 to 1, so would not be surprised for by 12z Thursday of a fresh inch or two of snow from Mt Mansfield to Jay Peak and across portions of the NEK. In addition, lake effect snow will become better organized aft 06z and should impact extreme southern St Lawrence County and the western dacks. Expect an inch or two of snow accumulation by morning, with likely pops. Temps hold mainly in the upper teen to mid 20s due to clouds.

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4 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

Radar looks good for even more refreshers. Seems like PF and JSpin are in a snowglobe

December can be a great snow globe time of year, since the Great Lakes are often still relatively warm and we don’t have that cold, dry midwinter air of January potentially leaving too little moisture around.  We’re only just starting the month of course, but I just checked my CoCoRaHS data and so far I see only 1 day without some snow.  We’ve already had some additional snow today subsequent to morning observations, so tomorrow will be ticked off as a day with snow as well.  I’m actually seeing flakes here in Burlington now, and barring a specific Lake Champlain snow band, if we’re getting it here it’s likely that the mountains are getting some flakes as well.

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15 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Skiing today was much better than expected.

I found about 3-5" of powder on top of the new crust (which is unbreakable) and it actually led to some really good turns in the glades.  The glades were sheltered from the high winds that caused the trails to be more variable (you had to figure out where the new snow had drifted to and plan your turns around that). 

Either way, this was a great little Northern Greens refresh, as without this new snow it would've been terrible...but instead turned into a fun afternoon hunting for stashes in the woods.  Lower angle stuff (like Nosedive Glades pictured here) skied best but even some of the steeper woods had some fun turns.  Glad to have the upslope save the skiing again to some degree.

Yeah, this is definitely what we like to freshen things up after a warm system that tightens up the base.  By the time the weekend rolls around again, there can often be some decent accumulations to get things back on track with multiple rounds of the Northern Greens refresh.  The 4 inches we picked up yesterday at the house made a big difference in terms of walking around – you’re actually waling/driving through snow vs. just standing on top of it, and obviously similar accumulations are really going to help the ski surfaces.

 

Taking a look at the snow from this past system by using 48-hour totals, you can see in the north to south listing for the Vermont ski areas along the spine how snowfall really tapered off south of Sugarbush:

 

Jay Peak: 9”

Smuggler’s Notch: 9”

Stowe: 8”

Bolton Valley: 7”

Mad River Glen: 4”

Sugarbush: 4”

Pico: 0”

Killington: 0”

Okemo: 0”

Bromley: 1”

Magic Mountain: 0”

Stratton: 1”

Mount Snow: 0”

 

It sounds like we could have a couple of additional rounds before we get to the weekend, with a bit of potential tonight, and then Thursday into Friday:

 

Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Burlington VT

929 AM EST Wed Dec 5 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

A trough of low pressure will prevail across our region through this upcoming weekend. The combination of surface boundaries, upslope flow, and lake moisture will produce occasional snow shower activity through the period. A plowable snowfall is expected in the most persistent lake effect snow band across northern New York into parts central and northern Vermont mountains.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

As of 929 AM EST Wednesday...

Thursday...The focus will turn toward the potential for accumulating lake effect snow showers from northern NY into the mountains of central/northern VT. Well aligned cloud layer winds of 25 to 30 knots will combined with moderate air to lake instability parameters to produce occasional snow showers. The highest pops and associated snowfall will occur from a Star Lake/Tupper Lake to Jay Peak line in northern VT. The combination of embedded short waves and minor wind shifts will keep the lake effect a bit unorganized and moving back and forth across parts of our cwa. In addition, bl temps warm into the upper 20s to mid 30s on Thurs, which will limit snow ratio`s especially in the valleys. Thinking accumulations on Thursday range from 2 to 4 inches in the most persistent bands across southern St Lawrence Valley mainly along route 3 and over northern VT near Jay Peak. Meanwhile, outside of the lake effect accumulations will be a dusting to an inch or two. Areas of slippery travel are possible with rapid changes in vis and road conditions in the heavier lake effect snow shower activity on Thurs aftn/evening.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

As of 228 AM EST Wednesday...A cold front will cross the North Country Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing widespread snow showers to the region overnight. West-southwest flow will turn to the northwest by early Friday behind the frontal passage; hence expect the snow to be steadiest on the upslope sides of the Adirondacks and Greens, with shadowing for portions of the Champlain and Connecticut River Valleys. Drier air will follow in the front`s wake, gradually bringing snow to an end from west to east during the day Friday, lingering longest in the higher terrain. Total snow accumulation for this system will be 3 to 6 inches in the lake effect areas east of Lake Ontario, 1 to 3 inches in the Greens and the far northern Adirondacks, and the rest of the area receiving an inch or less. There will be at least some sunshine across much of the region Friday afternoon, but cold air advection on brisk northwest winds will keep highs only in the teens and 20s.

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Been snowing all day at the ski resort.  Huge fat lazy currier and Ives snow that might add up to 1-2" after 6-8 hours...but very festive.  

Crazy how already on December 5th this just seems normal to have it snow all the time.  Dusting on the car this morning, hard for it to even seem noteworthy after the last month.

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Hey question for you NNE weather peeps. I'm out of town next week (off to Lake Tahoe). The whole December thread is full of "the warmup is coming."Our AFD says "continued well below normal Temps." So... Are we getting a warmup???

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Been snowing all day at the ski resort.  Huge fat lazy currier and Ives snow that might add up to 1-2" after 6-8 hours...but very festive.  

Crazy how already on December 5th this just seems normal to have it snow all the time.  Dusting on the car this morning, hard for it to even seem noteworthy after the last month.

don't jinx us.  While you've been prancing around the picnic tables, I've been slaving away down at the coast.  hope to be up friday.:sled:

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Steve LeBaron of the New Hampshire Department of Transportation’s Highway Design Bureau captured a stunner of a sky atop Cannon Mountain while skiing. @dendrite

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2018/12/05/story-behind-an-incredible-sky-scene-new-hampshire/?fbclid=IwAR2bDUeLv1XqjYFBFTOchtL9WK-OTg0OtZH8syVb1dzSSndLL5oPCEHbNSs&noredirect=on&utm_term=.bf1eb4a54330

KYEMDTEFNNBHLK5KF5T2RTW5YM.jpg

QSK27BQ7OZFM7ASO4FPNRZJDXQ.jpg

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Nice. Too bad the other sundog is blocked by the mountain. Any more zoomed out pics? Was there a 46° halo and circumzenithal arc?

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Snowing steadily but lightly... but this has to be about as perfect a snow growth as you can get.  This is how someone gets like 3" on 0.05" of water.

VTnnPKD.jpg

 

Decent pulse of moisture moving in.

anp4XNW.gif

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