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NNE Winter Thread


wxmanmitch
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1 hour ago, alex said:

It’s a great gig (and by the way, we are always looking for good people to help). Keep in mind, I only own a few properties, the others we just manage for other owners and take a cut (you need to be a licensed real estate agent to do that). The work is 24-7 and stressful at times but you also have great flexibility- is, can ski a few hours every day in the middle of the week. 

Well, im about to be debt free and im (k)not tied down by marriage or kids, I do have two guinea pigs but they are 2lbs each...but that idea sounds intriguing

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It is about as extreme a gradient as you'll see, it seems.  It's not just the mountains, it's even the low lands of NNE when BTV and CAR are both nearing their annual averages at the end of January.  CAR is a bit more above normal than BTV, but even the Banana Valley of Vermont has seen 70" so far.  It won't take much for BTV to put up another 100"+ season which seem to happen more frequently since 2000.

I always think back to what Will/ORH says, when SNE has a big winter it's usually still normal or above normal in NNE....and same when NNE has a huge winter, it's usually above normal in SNE too, just not to that extent.  It's much more rare for one area of New England to just be that far separated from the rest of the region.

The opposite type winter would be one where Cape Cod just rakes deform bands and mid-level magic all winter while it's like pulling teeth to get snow anywhere else.  Like an entire winter of severe suppression depression.

2005

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Calling it official

01/01 42.0  23.1 0.47   33    T  2
01/02 27.4  16.2 0.00   13  0.0  1
01/03 34.0  21.6 0.10   14  1.8  3
01/04 40.4  27.9 0.00   13  0.0  2
01/05 35.9  25.9 0.04   17    T  2
01/06 39.2  16.8    T   32    T  2
01/07 20.5   9.7 0.00   28  0.0  2
01/08 30.7  18.0 0.31    9  1.0  3
01/09 33.4  29.0 0.52   21  3.3  6
01/10 29.8  15.9    T   27    T  6
01/11 17.2   4.2 0.00   25  0.0  5
01/12 15.8   2.8 0.00   19  0.0  5
01/13 20.5   1.3 0.00    8  0.0  5
01/14 26.6   1.1 0.00    7  0.0  5
01/15 28.8  13.2 0.00   18  0.0  5
01/16 35.0  14.8    T   23    T  5
01/17 18.2   2.0 0.00   13  0.0  5
01/18 27.7  13.3    T   10  0.2  5
01/19 25.5  13.1 0.18   14  3.3  8
01/20 19.4  -1.7 0.93   29  5.7 13
01/21  1.4  -4.8 0.01   27  0.1 13
01/22 17.9  -4.7 0.00   28  0.0 12
01/23 33.5  10.5 0.05    7  0.0 12
01/24 52.0  32.1 1.58   20  0.0 11
01/25 33.7  17.9    T   19    T  7
01/26 24.7  12.2 0.00   10  0.0  7
01/27 36.3   5.6    T   15    T  7
01/28 28.6   5.7 0.00   17  0.0  7
01/29 15.8   4.4 0.31   11  4.0 11
01/30 24.7   0.3 0.17   27  1.9 13
01/31 11.7  -8.9 0.00   17  0.0 12
                 4.67      21.3

 

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Today's 98" Mansfield Stake depth is the highest ever recorded at the end of January.  

The old record for Jan 31st was 90" in 1969.  

Forgive us for being excited about breaking 65 year snow records ;)


Daily Hydrometeorological Data
National Weather Service Burlington VT
514 PM EST Thu Jan 31 2019

Station            Precip   Temperature   Present         Snow
                   24 Hrs   Max Min Cur   Weather     New Total SWE
...Vermont...
Mount Mansfield              7 -16  -4                     98

You know it’s interesting, I wonder if the mountains are doing better than the mountain valleys this season, relatively speaking?  We’re well ahead of average on snowfall here at our site, but it’s certainly not unprecedented – we’ve generally been running right along with good snowfall seasons such as 2007-2008 and 2008-2009.  Here’s how snowfall through January 31st (conveniently, right around the midpoint of the season) stacks up for the three seasons:

2007-2008:  113.6”

2008-2009:  129.0”

2018-2019:  128.6”

I know it looks like 2007-2008 might be lagging at this point, but in a few days it’s going to jump right up to 140”, and it’s going to keep its foot on the gas right past 200”, so it’s definitely a top contender in snowfall seasons.

Maybe we’ve just done better at building and retaining the snowpack this season relative to those seasons?  It’s not as if we haven’t had any mixed/warm systems this season, but clearly something is helping the snowpack build faster.  The snowpack here is currently higher than it was at this point in either of those seasons.

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11 minutes ago, J.Spin said:

You know it’s interesting, I wonder if the mountains are doing better than the mountain valleys this season, relatively speaking?  We’re well ahead of average on snowfall here at our site, but it’s certainly not unprecedented – we’ve generally been running right along with good snowfall seasons such as 2007-2008 and 2008-2009.  Here’s how snowfall through January 31st (conveniently, right around the midpoint of the season) stacks up for the three seasons:

2007-2008:  113.6”

2008-2009:  129.0”

2018-2019:  128.6”

I know it looks like 2007-2008 might be lagging at this point, but in a few days it’s going to jump right up to 140”, and it’s going to keep its foot on the gas right past 200”, so it’s definitely a top contender in snowfall seasons.

Maybe we’ve just done better at building and retaining the snowpack this season relative to those seasons?  It’s not as if we haven’t had any mixed/warm systems this season, but clearly something is helping the snowpack build faster.  The snowpack here is currently higher than it was at this point in either of those seasons.

I have thought this season's snowpack has been on the higher end even in the valleys since November.  Maybe the snows have had more QPF in them?  Even the upslope events this season (the 12+ events) for the mountains have come with considerable QPF.  

The snowpack to me though has been almost more impressive than the actual snowfall compared to our normal climate.  It's been consistently deep winter.  

How are your snow Depth days comparing to those other winters?

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3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Jay Peak 263"

Smuggs 270"

Stowe 208"

Bolton 200"

Mad River Glen 161"

Sugarbush 149"

Honestly the Stowe total is likely a little under reported due to early season snow reporting difficulties...it could be as much as 230-240" IMO.  

The Smuggs number really stands out to me.  I've never seen them beat Jay Peak and they are literally 1-2 miles from Stowe.   

With that said, the Stowe number is low and the Mansfield Stake being 98" would support more than 208".  Often getting the Stake to 100" in my experience is closer to 250" snowfall than 200".  Some years it takes 300"+ to get to 100" depth.  The ratio of depth to snowfall seems off.  Vail Resorts tried to go with a different snow reporting method but has since gone back to the old way, with sheltered High Road measurements.  The early season snow was on the low side.

Either way, it's a lot of snow.

Wasn’t there at least one storm that dumped significantly more snow on the west slopes because of blocked flow?  I seem to remember something to that effect.  

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30 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Wasn’t there at least one storm that dumped significantly more snow on the west slopes because of blocked flow?  I seem to remember something to that effect.  

Yeah there have been a few, on the other side there have been a decent amount of blocked SE flow events that have done much better on the east side.  In the past it usually all evens out.  And honestly, it's more for the towns on either side.  The upper elevations of the Spine do about the same in both wind directions because there isn't enough time for any downsloping to take hold.  Sort of like how JSpin does great in both wind directions, but move 3-5 miles east/west of him that wind direction can matter.

Even the event the other day was an example of blocked SE flow... 3-5" west slopes and 6-10 east of the crest from Stowe/Waterbury/Waitsfield zone.

51158863_2462933530445200_74875200344833

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

I have thought this season's snowpack has been on the higher end even in the valleys since November.  Maybe the snows have had more QPF in them?  Even the upslope events this season (the 12+ events) for the mountains have come with considerable QPF.  

The snowpack to me though has been almost more impressive than the actual snowfall compared to our normal climate.  It's been consistently deep winter.  

How are your snow depth days comparing to those other winters?

SDD Through January 31st by season:

2007-2008:  863.0

2008-2009:  814.0

2018-2019:  1035.0

 

This season is ahead of those in terms of SDD, so certainly on the high end.

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January totals: 66.5” Snow/6.22” L.E.

This January was notable at our site in that the last time we had one with above average snowfall was eight seasons ago (January 2011 with 55.5”).  My data set only covers about a dozen years, but January is still the snowiest month at the climate sites around here.  So, unless the monthly distribution in the mountains here varies dramatically from those sites, that stretch was presumably not the norm.

As a skier, this January was much closer to how you’d write it up though – lots of moisture, plenty of fresh snow, and none of that sitting under dry, frigid arctic air for a week at a time.

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1 hour ago, J.Spin said:

January totals: 66.5” Snow/6.22” L.E.

This January was notable at our site in that the last time we had one with above average snowfall was eight seasons ago (January 2011 with 55.5”).  My data set only covers about a dozen years, but January is still the snowiest month at the climate sites around here.  So, unless the monthly distribution in the mountains here varies dramatically from those sites, that stretch was presumably not the norm.

As a skier, this January was much closer to how you’d write it up though – lots of moisture, plenty of fresh snow, and none of that sitting under dry, frigid arctic air for a week at a time.

the thaws and cutters werent really that damaging to the snowpack.  Obviously unwelcome but there werent any that wiped things out significantly.

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12 hours ago, J.Spin said:

SDD Through January 31st by season:

2007-2008:  863.0

2008-2009:  814.0

2018-2019:  1035.0

 

This season is ahead of those in terms of SDD, so certainly on the high end.

Pack's been good here, too, certainly helped by Novie's record snows.  Top 3:

2007-08:   1,124
2018-19:   1,098    Current 28" is tied with 2009 for highest on 1/31.
2016-17:      820

Average thru 1/31:   545

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20 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Caribou’s snowiest Jan ever. Boston’s 4th lowest, insane gradient 

Their 59.8" missed by 0.1" from tying Dec. 1972 for the most in any month.  Posted in the banter thread how this, in my mind at least, bears resemblance to 2007-08, only with things moved farther north, such that I've had lots of mixed precip events even while getting AN snowfall, while 11 years ago had very few.

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18 hours ago, J.Spin said:

SDD Through January 31st by season:

2007-2008:  863.0

2008-2009:  814.0

2018-2019:  1035.0

 

This season is ahead of those in terms of SDD, so certainly on the high end.

Yeah thanks.  That's about what I thought.

Ancedotally I was thinking best snowpack winter to date (just longevity and decent depth) since moving to Stowe.  Unrelenting since the first decent snow in November and then having 20+ on ground for the second half of January.  

Winter feels like it's been going on forever since it really started at the end of October with ridiculous cold departures.  Can't believe we still have Feb/Mar/Apr left in the snow season.

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Had the same thoughts PF.

Breaking our XC ski trails in yesterday and it felt similar to rifle and muzzy seasons with consistent knee deep and over knee snow conditions.  At least now the snow pack has solidified.  

Pretty heavy winds today at Jay. Never moved over 5F. Kids here grow up skiing with respect for the weather, everyone looking out for exposed skin on each other and understanding how to keep it moving. Deep blue skies and slow snow. Looking forward to touring in the teens and 20's this weekend:)

 

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At 90.3" so far for the season, 40.5" in Novie, 11.3" in December, and 38.5" in January. Seasonal total is probably a bit above average to date, but probably not too much. I have no idea what this location averages, and it'll take time to establish an average. My guess is 120-130", but it could be higher, possibly 150". 

The 38.5" for January is probably about average for the month. January was a meh month here, nothing too exciting, but not terrible by any means either. I could've done without the rainy cutters though.

All that said, I'm likely ahead of where I was at this point last winter and we finished with over 200" thanks to getting 90" in the first two weeks of last March.

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Just now, mreaves said:

This was taken in East Montpelier looking east. Central Vermont is really good for long distance views like this. 

That's one area of VT I haven't spent a lot of time driving around.  East/Central areas.  I love the views from I-89 south of Montpelier looking at the Orange Heights.  But spots like Williamstown up through your area, classic VT mix of open fields and bigger mountains.

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1 hour ago, borderwx said:

Started snowing around 12:30, be curious if it stays 1-3”, we should have 3” in another couple hours at this rate 

32020941337_bef276350c_b.jpg

winds really moved the snow around yesterday, lots of variable snow surfaces out there 

That’s the shed where awful things keep happening to the SNE weenies.

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