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Baroclinic Zone

2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE

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The old stoves are nice but the new stuff destroys the older stuff on efficiency and emissions. If your stove doesn't have air tubes or a catalytic converter your using way more wood and sending 5-6 times the amount of smoke/particulate into the airm 

My newer insert literally has zero smoke coming out of it once its up to temp. The tubes on top inject air and burns up the smoke like a blowtorch extracting even heat from the smoke.

Some studies have shown a reduction almost 50% in wood consumption as well.

Today’s wood stove models feature improved safety and efficiency--they produce almost no smoke, minimal ash, and require less firewood. While older uncertified stoves release 15 to 30 grams of smoke per hour, new EPA-certified stoves produce no more than 4.5 grams per hour. 

https://www.epa.gov/burnwise/choosing-right-wood-burning-stove

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Drove up 84 yesterday, and I was shocked how the temp dropped like 10 degrees as the highway rose up towards Tolland. Truly a magical place.

But I did get to pit stop at Tree House. Got my hands on Very Green for the first time, so I'm excited about that. Also grabbed at least a can of everything else they had on offer. Quite a few I haven't had before (SSSappp, Super Typhoon, In Perpetuity, Curiosity 61). 

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15 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Heh' yeah, orange pipe in a pitch black room is scary.  Luckily have not done that here but have certainly seen it.  I had stainless liners put in the chimney years ago, the expense was worth the piece of mind.  We have a Jotul 602 in the basement in case of power out or if I'm working down there for extended periods.  The old Vermont Castings are indestructible, made from melted down Volvo engine blocks is the rumor.  Many people are intimidated running stoves hot but depending on the make it's worse to run them too cool.  The only issue with wood heat is being cold when you go to people's houses who don't burn.  ;)

I recall a brief note in a newspaper, shortly after our 1973 move from NNJ to BGR, that stated how a significant (as in billions) part of the world's people used wood as a major resource for heat and cooking, and I thought, "How quaint."  Four years later our thinking had changed, as we bought the Jotul 602 and installed it in our first house the day before moving in.

After minima of zero and 1 the past two days, we were a degree or three below this morning, almost certainly the last subzero morning until Nov/Dec.

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58 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Drove up 84 yesterday, and I was shocked how the temp dropped like 10 degrees as the highway rose up towards Tolland. Truly a magical place.

But I did get to pit stop at Tree House. Got my hands on Very Green for the first time, so I'm excited about that. Also grabbed at least a can of everything else they had on offer. Quite a few I haven't had before (SSSappp, Super Typhoon, In Perpetuity, Curiosity 61). 

Yeah they’ve had a sick offering the last few weeks. VG is out of this world. Super Typhoon is great. C61 is part of the Curiosity series. They only do those batches one time. 

I know the phenomenon you mean on the hill coming into TOL on 84. I’m sure you’re joking about the 10 degrees, but it generally drops at least 6-8 degrees from Vernon and when I pull into TOL

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah they’ve had a sick offering the last few weeks. VG is out of this world. Super Typhoon is great. C61 is part of the Curiosity series. They only do those batches one time. 

I know the phenomenon you mean on the hill coming into TOL on 84. I’m sure you’re joking about the 10 degrees, but it generally drops at least 6-8 degrees from Vernon and when I pull into TOL

Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there.

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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there.

That area by the Electric Blue on 84 is ~600 feet. Head up another 400 feet and it’s another couple degrees cooler. Further up in Union on 84, you’re at or around 1000 feet much of the way there 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That area by the Electric Blue on 84 is ~600 feet. Head up another 400 feet and it’s another couple degrees cooler. Further up in Union on 84, you’re at or around 1000 feet much of the way there 

I can certainly see why there's a jackknifed semi every other day there during the winter.

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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1

Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal.

Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN.  Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall.

On a related note:  "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20.  Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more.

Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there.

Not just elevation.  We had an evening meeting at our church in Farmington last month, and as we left the parking lot at 515' elev, the car thermometer read 27.  As we turned on to Rt 2 at 375', temp was 20.  3.5 miles SE it was back up to 28 at 345' in Farmington Falls.  Elevation remained 345-370 from there to the blinker light at the bridge in New Sharon while temp dropped to 22 then back to 24 in town.  2 miles north at our place (395') it was 20 - we always seem to lose 1-3° as we drive the 2,000 feet from the tar road to our driveway.  It was a fairly still night after a breezy cold day, but the ups and downs were odd.

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16 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I can certainly see why there's a jackknifed semi every other day there during the winter.

Has Ekster said anything about what he thinks for severe wx season this year? 

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN.  Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall.

On a related note:  "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20.  Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more.

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1

Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal.

It all has to do with perception.  The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal.  I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days.  I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that.  They forget the breaks in between.

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals.  Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021.  In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991.  My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031.  However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before.

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13 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. 

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals.  Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021.  In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991.  My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031.  However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before.

I just decided to keep going.  I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me.  I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was.  I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years.  :o

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5 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It all has to do with perception.  The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal.  I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days.  I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that.  They forget the breaks in between.

Perception has a lot to do with it, and some studies have shown that humans ability to remember past year's conditions may only be on the order of 2-5 years on average. Meaning that just about every winter will be perceived as colder than normal.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

I just decided to keep going.  I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me.  I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was.  I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years.  :o

There's value in continuous and consistent record keeping.  That's why, when I joined cocorahs in 2009 and began 7 AM obs, I continued my 9 PM obs time used since moving to Fort Kent on New Year's Day in 1976. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. 

That's true.   What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)?  Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site?  Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out?  I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? 

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10 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

That's true.   What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)?  Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site?  Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out?  I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? 

But, as I said above, our perception of what normal actually is a relatively short period. It probably is more relevant to explain normals in a smaller chunk of time than the whole period of record.

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