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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


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47 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1

Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal.

Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN.  Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall.

On a related note:  "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20.  Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more.

Yeah, 10 degrees is insane, but under the right conditions from the far western part of Vernon to the highest point on 84 in Tolland you could see as much as a 4 degree F swing. There's like 600 ft elevation change there.

Not just elevation.  We had an evening meeting at our church in Farmington last month, and as we left the parking lot at 515' elev, the car thermometer read 27.  As we turned on to Rt 2 at 375', temp was 20.  3.5 miles SE it was back up to 28 at 345' in Farmington Falls.  Elevation remained 345-370 from there to the blinker light at the bridge in New Sharon while temp dropped to 22 then back to 24 in town.  2 miles north at our place (395') it was 20 - we always seem to lose 1-3° as we drive the 2,000 feet from the tar road to our driveway.  It was a fairly still night after a breezy cold day, but the ups and downs were odd.

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe cut some slack for Maine folks north of PWM - Farmington co-op was 0.4° BN for met winter compared to 1981-2010, and CAR was 1.1° BN.  Can't offer the same for the many places that were AN with mediocre snowfall.

On a related note:  "Normals" are going to make a significant jump starting in 2021, when the cold 1981-90 period is replaced by the considerably less cold 2011-20.  Possibly a full degree higher in most places, maybe more.

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

https://news.gallup.com/poll/247910/one-third-blame-unusual-winter-temps-climate-change.aspx?wpisrc=nl_energy202&wpmm=1

Some soft respondents in the "east"? 34% saying a colder than normal winter despite the objective fact that it has not been colder than normal.

It all has to do with perception.  The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal.  I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days.  I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that.  They forget the breaks in between.

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4 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals.  Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021.  In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991.  My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031.  However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before.

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13 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

Speaking of normals, do they adjust departures from normal in previous years after they adjust what "normal" is? Or is that only valid for the 10 year period until a new set of normals are released?

I started keeping records in 1985 and when I entered the data into Excel in the early 90s I was able to much more easily calculate what my normals were and after 2015 I had a set of 30 years of data.  Every year I recalculate them and it automatically adjusts the departures based on that but I don't think that's how the NCDC does it.

It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. 

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1 minute ago, tamarack said:

I think the 30-year "normal" period gets updated at 10-year intervals.  Thus the 1981-2010 norms will update to 1991-2020 as we enter 2021.  In your case, if you wanted to parallel the "official" method, you'd need to cease the continuous updating at the end of 2020 while cutting out data prior to 1991.  My data here began in mid-May 1998 with continuous updating, so I won't face that decision until 2031.  However, I think 30 years to be too short a period, and if I'm still recording data then (a couple months shy of turning 85), I'll probably continue doing it the same way as before.

I just decided to keep going.  I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me.  I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was.  I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years.  :o

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5 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

It all has to do with perception.  The cold in the Midwest was all over the news and we did have a couple of 1-2 day cold waves that were colder than normal.  I know there were a ton of record low maxes on a few days.  I think people think of those days and just think the whole winter has been like that.  They forget the breaks in between.

Perception has a lot to do with it, and some studies have shown that humans ability to remember past year's conditions may only be on the order of 2-5 years on average. Meaning that just about every winter will be perceived as colder than normal.

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1 minute ago, MetHerb said:

I just decided to keep going.  I agree that 30 years is too short a period and since it's for my own records, I'll just do it the way that works for me.  I like being able to look a month's worth of data and determine just how far off the long term record it really was.  I'm only 50 so I'll probably get to a point where my departures will stand out because the record by the time I'm 85 will be almost 70 years.  :o

There's value in continuous and consistent record keeping.  That's why, when I joined cocorahs in 2009 and began 7 AM obs, I continued my 9 PM obs time used since moving to Fort Kent on New Year's Day in 1976. 

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

It depends on what exactly is being done with the data, but for NWS purposes the normals continue to change with the base period. That way we're comparing actual departures from normal for that base period, rather than the 1880s departures always getting colder relative to the new published normals. 

That's true.   What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)?  Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site?  Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out?  I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? 

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10 minutes ago, MetHerb said:

That's true.   What if the entire period was used (1880-2019)?  Wouldn't the departure be relative to the overall normal for the site?  Wouldn't that allow for longer term dry/wet or warm/cool periods to be smoothed out?  I'm just thinking if you have a decades long period of anomalous weather, it's a third of your "normal" period and wouldn't it throw off the record when things aren't as anomalous? 

But, as I said above, our perception of what normal actually is a relatively short period. It probably is more relevant to explain normals in a smaller chunk of time than the whole period of record.

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Two more signs of spring:  Kennebec ice is running in Augusta today, though it might take a few more days downriver where the currents are less.  And yesterday there were a dozen Canada geese at the Rt 27 bridge over Belgrade Stream.  As Aldo Leopold noted in "A Sand County Almanac", northbound geese invest hundreds of flying miles on the proposition that their destination will be ready for occupancy, and being wrong can be fatal.

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30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I mean why are you even looking at that site? lol

Seems like pretty typical south coastal Cali climo to me. Days and days of boring.

Nice climate for those with little/no interest in weather.  Dead zone for forecasters - put out the month's forecast on the 1st, then go do something that might make a difference until the 1st of next month.

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Anyone here have recommendations for a well water filter?

The house we are buying is well water and I’ve never lived anywhere with well water in my life. 

Currently no filtration system in the house. Looking for something decently cheap, as I simply don’t have the money to spend on a high end system.

Under 1k?

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15 hours ago, dendrite said:

I mean why are you even looking at that site? lol

Seems like pretty typical south coastal Cali climo to me. Days and days of boring.

ahhh...one of the cities I forecast for. But yeah...pretty much days and days of boring. Only "excitement" is any fog potential lol

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30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

ahhh...one of the cities I forecast for. But yeah...pretty much days and days of boring. Only "excitement" is any fog potential lol

oh cool. I thought you were just looking at random places for no particular reason.

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9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

oh cool. I thought you were just looking at random places for no particular reason.

There is something quite interesting about the location though which I noticed last summer. I wonder if there is a huge temperature gradient (or if one can occur) between the airport and like 5 miles farther inland. They had heat advisories last summer, but the airport was only getting temps in the lower 80's with dews around 60. I wonder if you go like 5-10 miles farther inland the temps can soar into the 90's.

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1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I hate missing snow but getting very little QPF yesterday/overnight and now windy and partly sunny has started drying things out nicely.  Maybe start doing some clean-up on the snowless side of the yard tomorrow. 

I can’t wait for everything to dry out.  The next two weeks are dreadful until it thaws and dries

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