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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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I have never seen a basement in coastal Carolina and from what I’ve heard they are not commen in the south, a mobile home doesn’t stand a chance of a tornado, maybe a bathtub or closet would give you some protection but I doubt it in anything over an EF-1, a strong thunderstorm did considerable damage do mobile homes with hail and straight-line winds here last summer, very sad what happened in Alabama 

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45 minutes ago, FlashFreeze said:

I have never seen a basement in coastal Carolina and from what I’ve heard they are not commen in the south, a mobile home doesn’t stand a chance of a tornado, maybe a bathtub or closet would give you some protection but I doubt it in anything over an EF-1, a strong thunderstorm did considerable damage do mobile homes with hail and straight-line winds here last summer, very sad what happened in Alabama 

Very true.  I lived in coastal NC for a long time and there were no basements.  No elevation and close to water table.  I would imagine the same holds true for the deeper south.

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I remember reading once that 90 percent of homes south of the Mason Dixon line have no basements. Its really a New England thing. 

My wife has a bunch of family in Missouri people dont even know what a basement is there. I try and explain it to them and they seem confused. Homes there are built flat on the ground on concrete slabs. Nowhere really to go except a closet.

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3 minutes ago, BrianW said:

I remember reading once that 90 percent of homes south of the Mason Dixon line have no basements. Its really a New England thing. 

My wife has a bunch of family in Missouri people dont even know what a basement is there. I try and explain it to them and they seem confused. Homes there are built flat on the ground on concrete slabs. Nowhere really to go except a closet.

https://www.theday.com/article/20150925/biz04/150929626

"Basements were least common in the West South Central region, consisting of four states between Texas and Arkansas, where less than 1 percent of new homes had the feature. Three percent of new homes in the Western region, 13 percent in the South Atlantic region, and 20 percent in the East South Central region featured a basement.

Slab foundations were nearly ubiquitous in the West South Central states, with 96 percent of new single-family homes being built on one. The share was 67 percent in the South Atlantic states.

Zhao says slab foundations are cheaper and easier to build, and better suited for warm climates and clay soils. Despite these qualities, crawlspaces became the more popular option in the East South Central region in 2014."

 

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8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I will say it's like a switch gets flipped on March 1st solar wise. 23F here at 1230p and plenty of melting wherever snow or ice is adjacent to a dark surface. Hopefully we can clear the roof before the next big rain.

Even with ~25" on the ground on the level here, I noticed yesterday for the first time that there's actually grass showing in some steep south facing banks along the road.  That sun just annihilates the south facing aspects, especially with road salt and sand in it.  

I have a feeling given the density of the snowpack here that later in the month there will be a massive difference in snowpack depending on aspect and sun.  

Like the south facing sunny spots will torch in a week or two while on the level the snowpack will still be only 3-6" below the top of the picnic tables along the Rec Path in town. 

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2 hours ago, BrianW said:

I remember reading once that 90 percent of homes south of the Mason Dixon line have no basements. Its really a New England thing. 

My wife has a bunch of family in Missouri people dont even know what a basement is there. I try and explain it to them and they seem confused. Homes there are built flat on the ground on concrete slabs. Nowhere really to go except a closet.

When our daughter/SIL and grandkids were looking to move from rental to ownership in Decatur, IL, they didn't consider anything that lacked a full basement.  They are relatively common there.

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48 minutes ago, tamarack said:

When our daughter/SIL and grandkids were looking to move from rental to ownership in Decatur, IL, they didn't consider anything that lacked a full basement.  They are relatively common there.

That's interesting.  My wife is from Peoria and it's not uncommon to find a home on a slab there.  I also have a brother that lived in Idaho and Oregon and both his homes were on slabs.  

I about that when we were looking at options for building and they could do it, but I was told that the cost savings was only about $5-15,000 because they still had to dig down for the footings.  

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1 hour ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Off topic, but kind of on topic: Some towns offer subsidies to install below/above ground shelters. 

It should almost be a requirement in the South and Plains where possible. If you're in a trailer home though, you have no chance in a tornado

Didn't realize that so many new homes in such a prone area don't have some sort of basement/storm shelter. I understand that a lot of places have a high water table, therefore basements aren't feasible but that will somehow change in the future.  Only going to be more severe weather and more tornadoes as time goes on imo

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2 hours ago, MetHerb said:

That's interesting.  My wife is from Peoria and it's not uncommon to find a home on a slab there.  I also have a brother that lived in Idaho and Oregon and both his homes were on slabs.  

I about that when we were looking at options for building and they could do it, but I was told that the cost savings was only about $5-15,000 because they still had to dig down for the footings.  

The Decatur (2009-15) branch of the family also had a sump pump that got a fair amount of use.  Their current place in SNJ farm country has the full basement but no pump and (so far) no problems.

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This is a picture of my dog I took this morning in my driveway. She's 48 lbs. She looks like she's 3 months old lol because of how tall the snowbank is. It's so freaking deep. Obviously part of it is snow bank but the woods behind it are not a hill - That's actually about the same level as the driveway in the summer! The "valley" in the middle is actually a seasonal stream which goes under my driveway. 

E08E679E-EC75-4310-96B7-80A7739E1336.jpeg

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7 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

oof...12z GFS looks nasty for svr down that way Saturday. If sufficient instability can materialize (large-scale ascent may even compensate) for updrafts to not be negatively impacted by the intense LLJ there are going to be some nasty, nasty storms. 

I was just going to say Diane looks to be moving down there just in time for severe season. That's a nasty look.  

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6 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

:weenie:  :weenie: 

If it's anything like last year we're only like 8 weeks away from some major action. 

Severe will never ever be like it was last year along 84 in wct. A once in a lifetime EF1 over the property, I will never experience that again unless I move to the midwest....which I would never do.

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1 hour ago, alex said:

This is a picture of my dog I took this morning in my driveway. She's 48 lbs. She looks like she's 3 months old lol because of how tall the snowbank is. It's so freaking deep. Obviously part of it is snow bank but the woods behind it are not a hill - That's actually about the same level as the driveway in the summer! The "valley" in the middle is actually a seasonal stream which goes under my driveway. 

E08E679E-EC75-4310-96B7-80A7739E1336.jpeg

Wow, looks great, nice pup

72E42CD5-3A63-4B9B-822A-2E1F72D15F51.png

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12 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

Watching on TV, did not look like any basements at all, and reporter made the comment that the area into AL and GA had a high Concentration of mobile homes...what a horrible combination 

I've actually seen some GIS mapping of areas designated mobile homes and the MRMS low level rotation track (proxy for tornado path). It went through a particularly bad area of the country for mobile home concentration. 

Kind of a worst case scenario honestly. Not only was it a violent tornado (more likely to be fatal), but it was in the Southeast (also more likely to be fatal), through a high density of mobile homes (also more likely to be fatal, and finally happened on a weekend (also more likely to be fatal). The last part is interesting because people are at home which is actually more deadly, because municipal structures are often better equipped to handle those types of winds. This weekend thing goes for constructed homes as well as mobile homes.

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10 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

oof...12z GFS looks nasty for svr down that way Saturday. If sufficient instability can materialize (large-scale ascent may even compensate) for updrafts to not be negatively impacted by the intense LLJ there are going to be some nasty, nasty storms. 

SPC SREF already honking about it a bit. The set up has looked pretty good for a couple days actually, it's only just now reaching the tail ranges of some of the mesoscale guidance.

Looks to be focused a little farther west this time (like Lower Mississippi Valley) vs. Sunday's stuff.

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9 hours ago, ChasingFlakes said:

Off topic, but kind of on topic: Some towns offer subsidies to install below/above ground shelters. 

That came up after the Joplin EF5, more specifically whether there should be a mandate for new construction to require a shelter. But people don't like governments (state or otherwise) telling them what to do, even if that is for their own safety.

Regardless, we're advancing tornado science quite a bit, but I don't think we're advancing the messaging/preparedness quite as fast.

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