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2018/19 Winter Banter and General Discussion - We winter of YORE


Baroclinic Zone
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18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

31.9F  Light snow.  Snow this morning became moderate snow grains with blowing snow most of the day. Only 2" of very dense snow. Temp finally made it to 32.4F at 4pm before falling back.  Snow grains went to freezing rain by mid afternoon and briefly plain rain.  Sleet showers by early this evening now over to very light snow.  Icy, snowy mess.  Snow banks along the roads are really high.

Bring on the wind...

I'm excited I'll be up there for 3 days this weekend....hopefully the mid week and weekend deals work out 

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Nice wet 33-34F paste going on out there... sticking to every little twig.  Only a few tenths so far of slush but it's stacking on the elevated objects.

Went to pick out dinner with huge aggregates coming down and man, this winter has been something else.  The snowbanks have been huge for what seems like months, with the need to pull out slowly and try to look around the snowbanks for traffic... walkways are like waist to shoulder high banks lining them and roads are snow covered with slush and the morning sleet/snow. 

Sloppy storm and despite a bunch of these events with no real snowpack change in depth, it just adds even more substance to the snow and the snowbanks.  Like a mini-Tahoe style pack that's just moisture logged and deep.  The only problem is spring will be real sloppy with this much SWE locked up as pure ice and then dense snow on top.

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Nice wet 33-34F paste going on out there... sticking to every little twig.  Only a few tenths so far of slush but it's stacking on the elevated objects.

Went to pick out dinner with huge aggregates coming down and man, this winter has been something else.  The snowbanks have been huge for what seems like months, with the need to pull out slowly and try to look around the snowbanks for traffic... walkways are like waist to shoulder high banks lining them and roads are snow covered with slush and the morning sleet/snow. 

Sloppy storm and despite a bunch of these events with no real snowpack change in depth, it just adds even more substance to the snow and the snowbanks.  Like a mini-Tahoe style pack that's just moisture logged and deep.  The only problem is spring will be real sloppy with this much SWE locked up as pure ice and then dense snow on top.

Haha just posted the same thing to the NNE thread. Beautiful snow tonight, it's like spray paint 

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30 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Wow

Marquette has seen close to 100 inches of snow this month.

I wish I lived in a snowy climate

I mean snow is great.... But it gets annoying after awhile having to deal with a huge pack and constant accumulation.... I'm glad we have summer too... In fact I wish we had 5 months of a 2' pack and cold and then 7 months of 85 degrees with TSTMs daily

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

AWT... not quite ready for prime time.

Do they still continue to update/improve/tinker with the legacy GFS in the meantime?

They will not. The GFS and GEFS are frozen on development.

If something were to actually break down in either they would fix it to keep operational, but no improvements are being done.

It's a bit ironic that a problem with the clown maps is one of the reasons why it is being delayed. But after that and the low level cold bias are fixed, it will take another 30 day stability test until it's operational. So we're basically April at the earliest.

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1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

lol...many improved parameters and then they nonchalantly slide this nugget in...

"-The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere
that became more prominent after late September 2018."

 

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol...many improved parameters and then they nonchalantly slide this nugget in...

"-The model forecasts exhibit a cold bias in the lower atmosphere
that became more prominent after late September 2018."

 

It may be good news that it appears as we near the cool season, because that's when they typically turn some of those parameterizations on. That could mean an easy fix.

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5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

They will not. The GFS and GEFS are frozen on development.

If something were to actually break down in either they would fix it to keep operational, but no improvements are being done.

It's a bit ironic that a problem with the clown maps is one of the reasons why it is being delayed. But after that and the low level cold bias are fixed, it will take another 30 day stability test until it's operational. So we're basically April at the earliest.

Hopefully it improves... it has been horrendous this winter.  Maybe it will Engage in Sping

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Just wanted to drop by to say, “hello”, to all my NE friends and tell you I’m really rooting for all of you to get a KU before the season concludes.  Will be surprised if the period of 3/3/19 to 3/15/19 doesn’t produce at least a warning event for SNE...and a possible blizzard.  Been waiting all season in hopes of chasing the big dog/KU and/or blizzard in SNE.  Been pretty discouraging as I intentionally passed on a couple significant events closer to home in expectation of a much bigger event up here.  Ironically, the timing of a prospective big event may very well occur when I’m unable to chase.  Specifically, I’ve already booked a trip from March 4 to the 14th back to the Florida Panhandle for a last family vacation prior to the birth of our baby, and to document the progress of Mexico Beach 5 months after Michael.  

Regardless of how things develop synoptically during the upcoming period, I’ll still be following the progression and hoping it manifests into a huge event for this sub forum! :)

Tony

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