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Ralph Wiggum

Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread

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5 hours ago, RedSky said:

12z GFS is fooking priceless post torch as a wagon train of impulses hit to the north and south, the one in the middle changes to rain lol

 

18z GFS has a total of 7 snowflakes for the region thru the entire run. Nothing even close tbh on that run. 

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Saw a report this morning: since Dec 1, DC has had more snow than Philly, NYC and Boston combined.

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Why is Doctor No (ECMWF) such a Debbie Downer? Seriously....how can almost every model show a SECS/MECS then the second Dr No barges in the room and says 'not so fast' all other guidance stops in their tracks and start to backpedal towards the Euro?

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why is Doctor No (ECMWF) such a Debbie Downer? Seriously....how can almost every model show a SECS/MECS then the second Dr No barges in the room and says 'not so fast' all other guidance stops in their tracks and start to backpedal towards the Euro?

Dr. No is a buzz kill.  Hasn't it been pretty off lately in the medium/long range for our area as of late?

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Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA

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42 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

symptom of zero blocking. hard to score in a +nao/+ao/-pna. 

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

Agreed 100%

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12 minutes ago, RedSky said:

It's go time for the winter of azz next week, here comes the sleet

 

NAM is a redux of the famous VD sleet storm. Like 5" sleet wth

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On ‎2‎/‎10‎/‎2019 at 9:50 PM, RedSky said:

I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me!

 

 

Move down to the Mid Atlantic next Jinx them, :frostymelt: Lol

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I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z ;)

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z ;)

Nah hang in there, speaking for myself I enjoy reading your analysis and thoughts true the season has been 10 days away all season but it happens that way sometimes. Just as everyone gives up something will pop up and well all be amped up again. Hang in there 

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The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us.

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I got to experience Monmouth's least wintry winter in a hundred years lucky me!
 
 



Yeah......we (30 year+ residents) had a meeting last night after the models updated. How long are you staying?


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z ;)

I'm right behind ya, I dig severe season even though we rarely get anything noteworthy. If the pattern holds though into spring, things could get real interesting with lows cutting up the OV. As far as winter, now that we look 0 for 3 in this window followed by a torch, I'm about to throw in the towel as well. Just isn't our year. Biggest event of 4.5" came in November. Lots of pro's forecasts busted hard this winter. Even you and I that didn't call for winter of yore didn't believe it would be this bad.

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53 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us.

I'm getting old. There was a time I'd roll out of bed in the middle of the night to watch the 0Z Euro roll in. Of course, this was back in the day when the Euro was a lot more stable than it seems today.

I guess after years of tracking, my heart just isn't in it like it once was. Not saying I don't track, but I'm not as invested as I was 10-15 years ago.

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