Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Winter 2018-19 Banter Thread


Ralph Wiggum
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Why is Doctor No (ECMWF) such a Debbie Downer? Seriously....how can almost every model show a SECS/MECS then the second Dr No barges in the room and says 'not so fast' all other guidance stops in their tracks and start to backpedal towards the Euro?

Dr. No is a buzz kill.  Hasn't it been pretty off lately in the medium/long range for our area as of late?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest Wxsim with 6z data shows 0.81" of rain later today and tonight and then a couple of potential winter events early next week. Current WXSIM shows up to 2" snow on Sun Night into Mon Am and then a bigger storm with a combo of Snow and Sleet for Tuesday night into Wed AM with between 4" to 6" of accumulation here in Chester County PA

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

symptom of zero blocking. hard to score in a +nao/+ao/-pna. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not a huge fan of seeing wxsim signaling mixing even well n and w with elevation. Expectations tempered severely for now. Yeah models look ok....just ok honestly. It's a fine line. And being 6 days out still there is ALOT that can go wrong to muck up the fragile setup we r seeing.

Agreed 100%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z ;)

Nah hang in there, speaking for myself I enjoy reading your analysis and thoughts true the season has been 10 days away all season but it happens that way sometimes. Just as everyone gives up something will pop up and well all be amped up again. Hang in there 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm out. Barring a miracle I will save you guys any negativity and grief. Maybe I will post a wrap up next month not sure. In any event it's been a fun season (minus the snow) and I will see you all next fall/winter......or at 12z ;)

I'm right behind ya, I dig severe season even though we rarely get anything noteworthy. If the pattern holds though into spring, things could get real interesting with lows cutting up the OV. As far as winter, now that we look 0 for 3 in this window followed by a torch, I'm about to throw in the towel as well. Just isn't our year. Biggest event of 4.5" came in November. Lots of pro's forecasts busted hard this winter. Even you and I that didn't call for winter of yore didn't believe it would be this bad.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The older I get the more I find tracking storms far out a complete waste of time unless it's your career. This year really proves it. Yeah, it's a hobby and may stimulate the brain or not (stress) but can't be good for the eyes (starring at the screen) gut or sleep pattern. Maybe I'm just in a rut...or Mother Nature/models are just F'en with us.

I'm getting old. There was a time I'd roll out of bed in the middle of the night to watch the 0Z Euro roll in. Of course, this was back in the day when the Euro was a lot more stable than it seems today.

I guess after years of tracking, my heart just isn't in it like it once was. Not saying I don't track, but I'm not as invested as I was 10-15 years ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

I'm getting old. There was a time I'd roll out of bed in the middle of the night to watch the 0Z Euro roll in. Of course, this was back in the day when the Euro was a lot more stable than it seems today.

I guess after years of tracking, my heart just isn't in it like it once was. Not saying I don't track, but I'm not as invested as I was 10-15 years ago.

I turn the big 50 this coming Fall (Oct)...seen you did this several years ago.

I have/had tons of shiet going on so that's probably part of the reason I'm not as much involved as normal. Maybe enter weenie mode at some point again (not this year).

Snow storms used to be on top of my list by far and still are to an extent but severe weather/t-storms are catching up. I would quit winter right now in exchange for a below normal temp summer w/above average t-storms. (Not a likely combination)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I turn the big 50 this coming Fall (Oct)...seen you did this several years ago.

I have/had tons of shiet going on so that's probably part of the reason I'm not as much involved as normal. Maybe enter weenie mode at some point again (not this year).

Snow storms used to be on top of my list by far and still are to an extent but severe weather/t-storms are catching up. I would quit winter right now in exchange for a below normal temp summer w/above average t-storms. (Not a likely combination)

If this pattern continues into Spring, we could have quite the active severe season. These lows cutting to our west would be a good setup for some severe threats. Already bracing for the -NAO pattern change hitting on MArch 15th though..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

If this pattern continues into Spring, we could have quite the active severe season. These lows cutting to our west would be a good setup for some severe threats. Already bracing for the -NAO pattern change hitting on MArch 15th though..

This would be good.

Not that means all that much but any summer outlooks yet?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...