wdrag Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Welcome to December: NJ focused post. The following can be merged elsewhere with a tread that I might have missed. The reason for this post is the excessive yearly rainfall (especially summer-fall), that had been a hydro concern from the Carolinas to the mid Atlantic states. The focus is here in NJ, where small stream and basement sump pump activations have been noticeable, even here in rocky far nw NJ (Sussex County). I won't be following this message closely- it is just information. Recovery is welcome from the wettest fall ever in NJ (source NJ State Climatologist). We're already the 4th wettest year (2018) in generally over 100 years of recorded history. An additional inch in December will make it the 2nd wettest year and a portion of that will occur tonight. It would take nearly 6 more inches to be the wettest year and that's unlikely. Still, if you didn't flood this summer/fall, then you're probably in a pretty good location with respect to runoff/drainage. Ditto if your septic systems survived the excesses of the summer-fall 2018. The good news...we have had water replenishment for wells and recreational river/stream related activity. 644AM EST 12/1/18 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 Probably averaged statewide .4 to .5 so far Dec 1-2 (through 12z/2)... on our way to #2 wettest year (NJ Statewide average). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 Updating the 2018 season through Dec 3, 2018, as per the NJ State Climatologists office: NJ statewide average for Nov 8.77", second wettest behind the 9.01 in 1972. Fall 2018 is the wettest ever in official NJ recorded history. The NJ statewide annual total through November is 58.94", 3rd wettest and we needed only .25" to jump to #2, which it surely did Dec 1-2. We still need nearly 5" of liquid equivalent precipitation in December to make this the wettest year in recorded history for NJ. This may be my last post on this information, barring a significant run to 5" total w.e. pcpn this month. Thanks for the views. 717A 12/4 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 Will look at this again around midday the 16th and midday the 21st subsequent to possible events, and time permitting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, wdrag said: Will look at this again around midday the 16th and midday the 21st subsequent to possible events, and time permitting. Glad to hear that 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 21 hours ago, wdrag said: Will look at this again around midday the 16th and midday the 21st subsequent to possible events, and time permitting. Two big rainstorms predicted on those days Walt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 8, 2018 Author Share Posted December 8, 2018 My read of the GFS/GGEM for nw NJ/ne PA is significant events for Dec 14-15, Dec 19-21. Much of it in 8 hours ea event. Looks like strong inside runners (to me). Just need to wait it out and see if there are weaker, further east trends. I dont commit to amounts here, because I dont want to get into model debates. Just my view on what I look for from model cues. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 This upcoming weekend might add 2-3" more if the GFS has a clue today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 12, 2018 Share Posted December 12, 2018 1 hour ago, frankdp23 said: This upcoming weekend might add 2-3" more if the GFS has a clue today Meanwhile the fv3-gfs has .5-1" like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 16, 2018 Author Share Posted December 16, 2018 I will try to update late 17th, what we will probably need to be the wettest year on record across the entire state of NJ. Attached is a multi sensor processed and estimated rainfall for the past 48 hrs. My estimate through Noon today, is that we've had about 1.5" this month (could end up ~2" by time this storm is over), which would leave us ~3" short to be #1... still unlikely, but possibly within 1/2 inch. Will need more than the event of the 20th-21st. Will try and post late Monday regarding our best estimate of the actual status through the 16th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 17, 2018 Author Share Posted December 17, 2018 Good Monday evening, December 17... Per consult with the NJ State Climatologists office... It appears the statewide NJ December average precipitation through the 16th, has been about 2.49". All we need is NJ statewide average of an additional 2.50" for the remainder of the month to reach 2011's total, equaling the yearly record of 63.95" This against the background info that already a number of cities in the east have set new annual records. My next update on this for NJ should be around the 23rd. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 On 12/12/2018 at 12:24 PM, Stormlover74 said: Meanwhile the fv3-gfs has .5-1" like the Euro I got 1.36" this weekend total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 On 12/17/2018 at 5:54 PM, wdrag said: Good Monday evening, December 17... Per consult with the NJ State Climatologists office... It appears the statewide NJ December average precipitation through the 16th, has been about 2.49". All we need is NJ statewide average of an additional 2.50" for the remainder of the month to reach 2011's total, equaling the yearly record of 63.95" This against the background info that already a number of cities in the east have set new annual records. My next update on this for NJ should be around the 23rd. Walt - great thread, thanks. We might just get that much in the coming storm... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 22, 2018 Author Share Posted December 22, 2018 This info will update no later than the 29th, wrapping up the necessary next two events (early 24th minor), 28th significant, needed to equal or exceed the record annual average for the entire state of NJ. From the attached image, I estimate NJ state average for the event of the 20th-22nd to be about about 1.65", though that might be a little low. I think a conservative estimate is best for starters, until the NJ state climatologists office evaluation. Therefore, for the remainder of December, we probably need to average another 0.85 or more to reach the state record (63.95")---which probably wont be "preliminarily" declared by our state climatologist office, til the first week of January. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 25, 2018 Author Share Posted December 25, 2018 Guestimate .05 fell yesterday. NJ statewide for the record (topping 2011) probably needs .80, which should occur either the 28th, or 28th-31st with the two or 3 events combined. Will update late the 28th or the 29th, tho probably nothing from NJ State Climatologists office til NY eve. Thanks for your patience and hope you're having a good holiday! Walt 211PM 12/25/18 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 28, 2018 Author Share Posted December 28, 2018 Updated from the state climatologists office on 12/27: we need about about .66" averaged for the entire state of NJ on Friday the 28th, to exceed the 2011 annual record for NJ. We may not know officially until all the data is corroborated early next week, though it looks like we can make it to the record by 7 PM Friday. Will try to update this later Friday or sometime this weekend. wd 816PM 12/27. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 Good Friday evening: It appears that NJ averaged about 1-1.25" of rain today. That amount together with the previous 63.3" would put us well over 64" for the year, and a record annual amount. This is not yet confirmed by the NJ climatologists office, and it may be a few days til we know for sure via all the incoming ground truth data. Attached is the MARFC gage/radar assessment - 24 hr amount through 7PM this Friday evening, Dec 28. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2018 Share Posted December 29, 2018 35 minutes ago, wdrag said: Good Friday evening: It appears that NJ averaged about 1-1.25" of rain today. That amount together with the previous 63.3" would put us well over 64" for the year, and a record annual amount. This is not yet confirmed by the NJ climatologists office, and it may be a few days til we know for sure via all the incoming ground truth data. Attached is the MARFC gage/radar assessment - 24 hr amount through 7PM this Friday evening, Dec 28. Great job with this Walt. Funny that you mentioned 64” as my gauge eclipsed that amount today adding 1.45” total 64.21” YTD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted December 29, 2018 Author Share Posted December 29, 2018 Good Saturday (Dec 29) morning all: This is not an official release for media but from the NJ State climatologists office: No doubt we broke the record today. My guess is we’ll be at about 64.50”. Every one of our WxNet stations exceeded the 0.65” needed. That outlier being High Point Monument. All but a handful were 0.99” or higher. Upper Deerfield was near 3”. Will take to at least Tuesday morning to see the final number, perhaps Wednesday. And of course if the rain arrives before midnight on Monday at least the midnight observing stations will result in some added 2018 pcp. --- In our part of the large township of Wantage NJ (8mi south of High Point), 0.89 yesterday... and the year to date...65.93" (Dec just under 5"). --- As fwiw...on the January thread--- am self replying to our January thread originator, to keep my thoughts in one location. --- I may close this NJ ANNUAL precip thread with the official report from NJ on January 2... otherwise my own contributions are pretty much done. If we didn't flood this year in nw NJ/ne PA (basement or otherwise), that is a good sign for your location. Walt 723AM EST 12/29 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 It was an annual record (past the previous 2011 -63.95") for the state of NJ, on average. Official release I've not yet seen on the Rutgers web site. Records date back to 1895. https://www.njweather.org/news NWS 2018 precip (rain and melted snow) total for Sussex County of far nw NJ is 69.70. - 22.0" above normal. No ranking available. NWS Sussex Cooperative Observing Station had 62.84" for the year, while the variability across the county was highlighted by CoCoRaHS stations with complete annual records (no normals are available) including Hardyston with 77.77" and Andover with 75.16²" Posted Saturday 1/5/18 838 AM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 5, 2019 Share Posted January 5, 2019 28 minutes ago, wdrag said: It was an annual record (past the previous 2011 -63.95") for the state of NJ, on average. Official release I've not yet seen on the Rutgers web site. Records date back to 1895. https://www.njweather.org/news NWS 2018 precip (rain and melted snow) total for Sussex County of far nw NJ is 69.70. - 22.0" above normal. No ranking available. NWS Sussex Cooperative Observing Station had 62.84" for the year, while the variability across the county was highlighted by CoCoRaHS stations with complete annual records (no normals are available) including Hardyston with 77.77" and Andover with 75.16²" Posted Saturday 1/5/18 838 AM. Thanks, Walt! I wonder if Eastern PA also got a record- looking specifically for data from the area between Mt Pocono and Allentown (Carbon County specifically). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 5, 2019 Author Share Posted January 5, 2019 I am hoping the PA state climatologist can comment. I am referencing the following link that illustrates the wide ranging annual records by climate city. Full attribution of the story to Weather Underground, and for the data collecting-processing and authenticating to NOAA-NWS-NCEI/RCC's. https://www.wunderground.com/news/news/news/2018-12-15-record-wet-year-2018-washington-dc-baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 From the NJ State Climatologists office (Rutgers web site) regarding NJ annual record for 2018: It is appropriate that the weather of last month of 2018 was rather similar to many earlier months in the year. Statewide, precipitation was above average for the 10th month of 2018 and the temperature was above average for the 8th month. This resulted in the year being the wettest on record and the 11th warmest since statewide observations began being calculated in 1895. https://www.njweather.org/news My probable last post on this. Walt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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