CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I bet the 12z GFS comes in with an inland track/coastal jumper with snow/slop/rain. Too many moving parts with this set up and we are still a week out. Still a lot of uncertainty, and that will be reflected in the op runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Too bad we can’t get it to cut and we get severe like Illinois did. Some sweet TORs yesterday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 We are one day away from the runs settling on a scenario where it snows through the Carolinas and then has a late swing up the coast to snow on ocean city and eventually nails Boston. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 psu is worried about suppression. we’re good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 I’m having a Christmas party next Saturday night. Good thing I can tell people it’ll be mostly clear while a snowstorm hits Columbia, SC. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 12z runs goin' be yuge. Might be hard to find space in the Panic Room if they crap the bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: 12z runs goin' be yuge. Might be hard to find space in the Panic Room if they crap the bed. Lol I'd say this though based on history and not anything technical I think 12z runs will be quite suppressed. We all act like we haven't seen this movie before but it has been on loop for years. My hope is that once it does show that it doesn't get over analyzed...once its apparent and said no need to keep saying it and trying to validate that they called it...but that's dreaming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Is BTR still worried about a departing High? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol I'd say this though based on history and not anything technical I think 12z runs will be quite suppressed. We all act like we haven't seen this movie before but it has been on loop for years. My hope is that once it does show that it doesn't get over analyzed...once its apparent and said no need to keep saying it and trying to validate that they called it...but that's dreaming Agreed, here is the coming pbp: Yoda: shortwave entering CA Yoda: looks ok at 120 PSU: northern stream looks strong yoda: way south at 144 general comments: congrats South Carolina tracker: wait, let it run , late capture? yoda: it’s coming up the coast, big hit Norfolk general comments: Boston gets smoked 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 19 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol I'd say this though based on history and not anything technical I think 12z runs will be quite suppressed. We all act like we haven't seen this movie before but it has been on loop for years. My hope is that once it does show that it doesn't get over analyzed...once its apparent and said no need to keep saying it and trying to validate that they called it...but that's dreaming We all love snow and tracking and want these threats to deliver, but I mean you gotta just roll with it. I wont engage in hand wringing over every model cycle 7 days out lol. My yard fails more than many here, but I still enjoy the tracking and in the end it is what it is, and I go chase if I have to. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 10 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Agreed, here is the coming pbp: Yoda: shortwave entering CA Yoda: looks ok at 120 PSU: northern stream looks strong yoda: way south at 144 general comments: congrats South Carolina tracker: wait, let it run , late capture? yoda: it’s coming up the coast, big hit Norfolk general comments: Boston gets smoked Another general comment: We suck but at least Boston gets screwed this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 It’s gonna be a long week of following models when so many people are living and dying by every model run, for a system 6-7 days away 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 20 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Lol I'd say this though based on history and not anything technical I think 12z runs will be quite suppressed. We all act like we haven't seen this movie before but it has been on loop for years. My hope is that once it does show that it doesn't get over analyzed...once its apparent and said no need to keep saying it and trying to validate that they called it...but that's dreaming I'll go a small step further. If you're right about the 12z runs and you very well may be, I think this storm is toast. Seems to me we need the 12z runs to correct the 6z runs right away which would relegate the 6z runs to a "blip". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: I'll go a small step further. If you're right about the 12z runs and you very well may be, I think this storm is toast. Seems to me we need the 12z runs to correct the 6z runs right away which would relegate the 6z runs to a "blip". It would be nice to get a few inches. Doesn’t have to be a monster HECS for me. FV3 looked ok for that. But I agree that once it goes south it might just keep going until it’s just crushed. Tough to recover from that as the models get a better handle on things. The most important runs on the season coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, mappy said: It’s gonna be a long week of following models when so many people are living and dying by every model run, for a system 6-7 days away Over/Under: 47 Ji overreactions 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 This all happened because Ji lied in that one post where he said he would be happy with a 6-8 inch snowfall. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 23 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It would be nice to get a few inches. Doesn’t have to be a monster HECS for me. FV3 looked ok for that. But I agree that once it goes south it might just keep going until it’s just crushed. Tough to recover from that as the models get a better handle on things. The most important runs on the season coming up. Agreed. The FV3 run was good enough for me for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: Agreed. The FV3 run was good enough for me for early December. At least it would be cold enough for the good dendrties. But just like Hurley on Lost I have a bad feeling about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 14 minutes ago, BristowWx said: At least it would be cold enough for the good dendrties. But just like Hurley on Lost I have a bad feeling about this Keep the faith, for at least the next couple of hours. We have to stop the bleeding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 51 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Over/Under: 47 Ji overreactions Over. There will be an additional 29 winter cancels 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 hour ago, mappy said: It’s gonna be a long week of following models when so many people are living and dying by every model run, for a system 6-7 days away I'm worried....I'm concerned....it's not looking good....it's gonna be a miss....oh well .....for a storm 174 hours away. Oh well. Maybe we'll get the next one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Whoever placed the shift key next to the caps lock key deserves some special award Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 So glad next weeks threat is gone. I was really getting worried about the well being of so many people here. Now we can reduce the stress and anxiety before the holidays 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 15 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: How do you see today's game going? Lamar has his first start on the road, against another pretty crappy D. Our D better play well- Atlanta can put up some yards. I got to tell you, I'm a little conflicted on what I think will happen. I'm scared our defense will lay an egg. I do like our offense this game surprisingly, as long as Marty calls a good game. That's probably a huge question mark in itself. We have to make sure we keep them from moving down middle of field. We need to keep their receivers outside the hashes. Julio will do his thing, but you have to contain him for the big play. All their receivers are excellent in space. Pressure Ryan, keep them outside the hashes, and bend, don't break in the RZ when they're there. We need to establish the run early and keep it rolling to control clock. If we can't do that, we are in deep trouble. As bad as their secondary is, we might get a few good plays down field on them, but I still think that's our weak point with Jackson. A lot of promise with his skill set and he can pass, but I think his mechanics need work. I have us losing 27-23, but I could see it flipped. Another tight Ravens football. Wouldn't be a Sunday without some heartburn lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: I got to tell you, I'm a little conflicted on what I think will happen. I'm scared our defense will lay an egg. I do like our offense this game surprisingly, as long as Marty calls a good game. That's probably a huge question mark in itself. We have to make sure we keep them from moving down middle of field. We need to keep their receivers outside the hashes. Julio will do his thing, but you have to contain him for the big play. All their receivers are excellent in space. Pressure Ryan, keep them outside the hashes, and bend, don't break in the RZ when they're there. We need to establish the run early and keep it rolling to control clock. If we can't do that, we are in deep trouble. As bad as their secondary is, we might get a few good plays down field on them, but I still think that's our weak point with Jackson. A lot of promise with his skill set and he can pass, but I think his mechanics need work. I have us losing 27-23, but I could see it flipped. Another tight Ravens football. Wouldn't be a Sunday without some heartburn lol You pretty much covered all the bases. Some consistent inside pressure on Ryan would be great. Get in his face. Need more of what we saw from Judon in the fourth quarter last week. I just saw this morning they put Collins on IR, and activated Dixon. Good move. If Dixon is healthy, he should be fresh and could spell Gus. I like the 4 RBs we have now. Keep that smash mouth thing going. That style fits the OL and also the skill set of Jackson. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: You pretty much covered all the bases. Some consistent inside pressure on Ryan would be great. Get in his face. Need more of what we saw from Judon in the fourth quarter last week. I just saw this morning they put Collins on IR, and activated Dixon. Good move. If Dixon is healthy, he should be fresh and could spell Gus. I like the 4 RBs we have now. Keep that smash mouth thing going. That style fits the OL and also the skill set of Jackson. Dixon is a more dynamic RB too who is very good in space. That's probably a great fit for today's game. Let Jackson use his talent, but keep it more on a possession type offense. Pound rock and mix in PA, screens, and quick out patterns. Take a shot down field every so often to keep them playing up. Moving away from the zone blocking scheme to a power game has been very beneficial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Nam still hinting at no storm....waiting on Chuck to chime in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Based on the GFS so far and extrapolating, it’s over. Oh well. So sick of this hobby!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: Nam still hinting at no storm....waiting on Chuck to chime in He’s on some obscure model site parsing the 48 hour NGM. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Anytime I see BaltimoreWx post in the LR thread, I always assume its gotta be bad news (or wrong news). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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