North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The lack of generally favorable digital snow in the runs is the most disheartening thing to me. Generally around here we see an uptick in that run over run which indicates a favorable period and some ops are coming up. Not seeing that remains a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: Just know that I am sticking with the 15th. Not necessarily for any snow though. Just the beginning of the sweeet h5 look! (it will surely produce, by Feb) Again I'm glad YOU get it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: The lack of generally favorable digital snow in the runs is the most disheartening thing to me. Generally around here we see an uptick in that run over run which indicates a favorable period and some ops are coming up. Not seeing that remains a red flag. My take is that the operational runs will continue to look bleak until around the first and then suddenly start looking better. And it won't be just the elusive 15 day that looks better, but closer in like the 7 - 10 day. Of course that still doesn't mean it will snow, but at least that would give something for the frustrated to do. As a side note, that January 7 storm might be something worth watching. Even a 1-3" event would be nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 The panic room 'bout to be FULL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 so how's next winter looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 i actually don't really care all that much as long as we get 2-3 decent events. i tell everyone who doesn't know much about this area to expect that every year. 2-3 minor to moderate events is typically on average (in my mind at least) what the dc metro area is good for in every single winter, so yes, things could still change because it doesn't take longer than a 2-3 week window to get our 2-3 events. we're a fringe snowtown. that's how we roll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 11 hours ago, frd said: this is us in 45 days Yep, just as our avg temps hit the 50F mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Epic January or February or not, not seeing a flake in December is pretty rare and sh-tty 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: The lack of generally favorable digital snow in the runs is the most disheartening thing to me. Generally around here we see an uptick in that run over run which indicates a favorable period and some ops are coming up. Not seeing that remains a red flag. Yes indeed. We can capitalize on about 10% of digital threats ... in a good year. When the models cant even produce fantasy snow? Well..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Things are getting a little heated in the disco thread. Not good for snow, when it gets that hot. LolOLOlll! #snowserioussh*t 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 hard to do when every storm is a giant inch plus rainstorm remember last year when getting rain seemed hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Awful. Just awful. I was never on board for an epic December, but I thought that we'd at least check in at normal for the month with snowfall. Yup. Not being able to fall into some front end slush or a random dusting is very unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 all we need is a 400 mile shift and we could see a whole inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 If next Fridays GFS doesn't show snow at end of the run I'm yelling fire 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: If next Fridays GFS doesn't show snow at end of the run I'm yelling fire We're good today. All bets are off tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If next Fridays GFS doesn't show snow at end of the run I'm yelling fire Thanks for the warning, I'll try to not be in the theater! LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're good today. All bets are off tomorrow As usual a nice solid snow shield with plenty of wiggle room 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We're good today. All bets are off tomorrow Anafront snows rock! And that strong hp behind wont rush things thru either. Soil temps look to drop tho so that's a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 17 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: As usual a nice solid snow shield with plenty of wiggle room It's all we got so may as well bet the house on it. I'm think 10-15 easy. By 10-15 I mean 10-15 minutes of mangled dendrites. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 6 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Epic January or February or not, not seeing a flake in December is pretty rare and sh-tty Interesting. Though I'd almost argue he's being a bit disingenuous or unfair or even overly strict, as there have been a few to several years with a mere trace of snow if not exactly "0.0" at all of the 3 local area airport locations in December (and a trace is really officially "nothing measured"). I can see his point though, that it's truly hard to get absolute zero in December...perhaps harder at BWI or IAD than at DCA. Consider it the difference between a no-hitter and a perfect game, I suppose! December 2015 is surely the standard for ultimate suckiness for any winter month...taking both lack of snow and torch-like temperatures into account. DCA, in fact, recorded none (not even a trace!) of snow that December from what I saw. BWI somehow mustered a trace. IAD also managed a trace that year. But nothing actually measurable. Recall that's the December that had a +11 to +12 temperature departure for the month, and I'd argue that was *far* worse than how this December panned out. At the least this year, we had some honest chill in the air at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing? It'll ensure we have a kick-"ash" Jan-Feb-Mar!! (Just couldn't resist that, I'm sorry...sort of!) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 27, 2018 Share Posted December 27, 2018 7 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Epic January or February or not, not seeing a flake in December is pretty rare and sh-tty Not to mention 2 of the 3 winters ended up pretty paltry! (And yet...the winters that happened the year AFTER all three of those winters were epic!) So...if we get denied this year...perhaps next year comes back with a vengeance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 Excited that hockey is back after a few day break for Christmas. Hockey > all other pro sports. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 9 minutes ago, nj2va said: Excited that hockey is back after a few day break for Christmas. Hockey > all other pro sports. Same here. Go Penguins! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 18z gefs just showed a progression that is basically identical to week 3 on the weeklies. Lol. Look at all that red my man. Sure looks like Hadley Cell expansion... for those less versed in this subject please have a read. The major driving force of atmospheric circulation is the uneven distribution of solar heating across the Earth, which is greatest near the equator and lesser at the poles. The atmospheric circulation transports energy polewards, thus reducing the resulting equator-to-pole temperature gradient. The mechanisms by which this is accomplished differ in tropical and extratropical latitudes. Hadley cells exist on either side of the equator. Each cell encircles the globe latitudinally and acts to transport energy from the equator to about the 30th latitude. The circulation exhibits the following phenomena:[1] Warm, moist air converging near the equator causes heavy precipitation. This releases latent heat, driving strong rising motions. This air rises to the tropopause, about 10–15 kilometers above sea level, where the air is no longer buoyant. Unable to continue rising, this sub-stratospheric air is instead forced poleward by the continual rise of air below. As air moves poleward, it both cools and gains a strong eastward component due to the Coriolis effect and the conservation of angular momentum. The resulting winds form the subtropical jet streams. At about 30° latitude on either side of the equator, the jet streams become so much faster than the surface wind speed that baroclinic instability prevents the Hadley circulation from extending further poleward. This coincides with the beginning of the Ferrel cells. At this latitude, the now cool, dry, high altitude air begins to sink. As it sinks, it warms adiabatically, decreasing its relative humidity. Near the surface, a frictional return flow completes the loop, absorbing moisture along the way. The Coriolis effect gives this flow a westward component, creating the trade winds. The Hadley circulation exhibits seasonal variation. During the solstitial seasons (DJF and JJA), the upward branch of the Hadley cell occurs not directly over the equator but rather in the summer hemisphere. In the annual mean, the upward branch is slightly offset into the northern hemisphere, making way for a stronger Hadley cell in the southern hemisphere. This evidences a small net energy transport from the northern to the southern hemisphere.[1] The Hadley system provides an example of a thermally direct circulation. The thermodynamic efficiency of the Hadley system, considered as a heat engine, has been relatively constant over the 1979–2010 period, averaging 2.6%. Over the same interval, the power generated by the Hadley regime has risen at an average rate of about 0.54 TW per year; this reflects an increase in energy input to the system consistent with the observed increasing of tropical sea surface temperatures.[2] Overall, mean meridional circulation cells such as the Hadley circulation are not particularly efficient at reducing the equator-to-pole temperature gradient due to cancellation between transports of different types of energy. In the Hadley cell, both sensible and latent heat are transported equatorward near the surface, while potential energy is transported above in the opposite direction, poleward. The resulting net poleward transport is only about 10% of this potential energy transport. This is partly a result of the strong constraints imposed on atmospheric motions by the conservation of angular momentum.[1] 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 8 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Massive volcanic eruption occurring again over in Indonesia. What effect does this have on the atmosphere irt weather? Or is it a tbd sort of thing? It means we have a better chance at getting hit by a tsunami than a snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Excited that hockey is back after a few day break for Christmas. Hockey > all other pro sports. The Capitals remind me of my single days, scoring at every opportunity possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: The Capitals remind me of my single days, scoring at every opportunity possible. Try the veal... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2018 Share Posted December 28, 2018 2 hours ago, yoda said: Same here. Go Flyers! Fyp yw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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