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December Banter 2018


George BM
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Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 


I’m counting on you to bring this one home. You not fretting this given your location is refreshing.
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5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


I’m counting on you to bring this one home. You not fretting this given your location is refreshing.

 

I just don't get the weird over confidence in day 5+ guidance being dead on perfect. No one trusts them when they show a hit at day 5/6 but when it's a close miss they have to be right?  Makes no sense. 

It's not even that I think it's going to happen. It's like 40/60 against to me.  But having a 40% chance of a big snow 5 days out are better odds then we usually have. Give us that situation several times this winter...with luck we hit on 2/3. Add in a few smaller events and we all beat climo and are happy.  

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50 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Wright Weather BB. I was on eastern. I never knew AccuWeather had one until it was mentioned a few times during the Eastern days.

Was on WWBB and then Eastern too.  Well...  was on Eastern until....  things...  happened...  Was sad.   More focused back then with lots of good discussions w/o so much other "stuff".  Was only WWBB for a while in the late 90's using dial up until we moved overseas...

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Everybody moved from WWBB to Eastern after WWBB went down a few times during big storms and Mike Dross (owner of WWBB) said he wasn't going to spend the time and money to continue to run a message board he never intended to get as large as it did.

Sent from my SM-G892A using Tapatalk

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3 hours ago, RDM said:

Was on WWBB and then Eastern too.  Well...  was on Eastern until....  things...  happened...  Was sad.   More focused back then with lots of good discussions w/o so much other "stuff".  Was only WWBB for a while in the late 90's using dial up until we moved overseas...

Didn't realize you were an old timer as well. Started following this board through all its changes back in 96 about 2 weeks before the big one. Fun times. I miss Dr Grey and his breakdown of coming storms. His long range pattern recognition was off the charts. And this was back when the models couldn't even sniff the accuracy of today's models..

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2 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now.

By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. 

 

He is running short of something 

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4 hours ago, showmethesnow said:

Didn't realize you were an old timer as well. Started following this board through all its changes back in 96 about 2 weeks before the big one. Fun times. I miss Dr Grey and his breakdown of coming storms. His long range pattern recognition was off the charts. And this was back when the models couldn't even sniff the accuracy of today's models..

Yea, I'm old - feeling older all the time.  haha.     Followed the previous forums mainly while living overseas.  With dial-up in the late 90's, it was slow at best.  Didn't have DSL until I lived in Germany 02-05 (second stint there).  That said, because if was so slow, posters were more reserved with comments.  I still don't write much as I find it hard to contribute anything on par with those far more knowledgeable about the art, hobby, profession and curse that we all share.  Read about everything that most everyone posts, other than a few that are not worth the oxygen, effort nor wasted grey matter.  Really appreciate all the analysis you put into many of your posts, and the plain ole English in which you describe what's going on.  Easy for this mere mortal engineer to follow...

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@BTRWx's Thanks Giving 

sorry this took so long but I've been busy.  During happy hour yesterday there was talk about "what we were looking at" to see the fv3 was likely coming north early on in the run.  This is definitely a simplified version but I highlighted on the runs below for the same time from 12z and 18z how it was evident that it was likely a better run.  

Look at the red and purple lines.  The red line is somewhat indicative of the depth of the stj wave and the ridging it is pumping in front of it into the mississippi valley.  The purple line is a rough estimate of where the northern stream is diving down and will act like a wall to block the northward progress of the ridging and the storm.  If you pull up both maps and toggle them back and forth you can see how there is more ridging ahead of the stj system in the miss valley AND that the northern stream is more relaxed to its north...look near Michigan.  It's nothing major but those are the kinds of minimal changes run to run that are making the difference here.  

FV31.thumb.png.2d3b70243d2eb05ed4a3e928d079c450.pngfv32.thumb.png.b462c52b245d575a721f94709d04786c.png

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3 minutes ago, dtk said:

I'm gone from the threads for a really long time....only to come back and see references to "sampling" and "suffering from convective feedback".  The more things change, the more they stay the same...

In a general defense, that, I think, was the first “convective feedback” nonsense, so maybe unlucky timing for your checkin .

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