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WxUSAF

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Is he ok? Haven’t seen him in like a year.

He is fine. Unfortunately he is no longer posting here. He posts on phillywx now. 

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Sorry folks, my bad. It was the 18z run from yesterday. I see that it's still stuck on 144. Don't know why they can't just get it to run in a timely manner.

Anyway, feel free to beat me with a stick until we get some more positive news on this storm.

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56 minutes ago, yoda said:

Considering its been pretty consistent the past 10 runs or so... we don't know if it's out to lunch yet IMO 

Consistent doesn't mean correct.  It's on it's own.  We know how that turns out.

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6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Consistent doesn't mean correct.  It's on it's own.  We know how that turns out.

It’s either gonna instantly become the go to model or a huge embarrassment... Never good when your “upgrade” underperforms it’s predecessor...

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8 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Old GFS has also been consistent the last couple of days except for yesterday's 18z blip.

Considerably more jumpy than the Fv3. A 10-run trend gif on TT comparing the FV3 vs the GFS's consistency speaks for itself.

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15 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Considerably more jumpy than the Fv3. A 10-run trend gif on TT comparing the FV3 vs the GFS's consistency speaks for itself.

I guess it depends on what we each consider to be jumpy. Plus I could be wrong. I haven't done a check but it just seems that the GFS has been south of us the majority of the time. 

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9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Looks like FV3 is finally finished it's 12z run...lol (maybe we get 18z all at once? :D)

I mean it has so much more time to think than the other models, you would think it’s more accurate 

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It's not a matter of "which model is right". Often at this range they are all wrong. And they could all be wrong in the same way.  Often they are as they are all victim of the same error. The error might not be due to their physics but something unforeseen by all of them. Chaos. Data void. A cow farted in the wrong direction. Who knows. 

  For example  In 2016 from 100 hours out the gfs and ggem were the furthest north with that storm. But it ended up further north then either of them even had it by a bit. The nam actually nailed that one but not until 24 hours out.  It didn't matter to D.C. because that storm had a huge coverage of 1-3' snow so it took D.C. From the northern part to the southern edge of the max band. But ask places in southern VA or NYC if it mattered. 

Dec 2009 and 1996 the euro was furthers north but even it wasn't nearly far enough north from 100 hours. 

Then what if this comes north but because of a phase. Then the Fv3 was right with snowfall distribution but for the wrong reason.  None started showing that as a serious possibility until recently.  

The key isn't as much predicting which model is right. It's predicting in what way they are wrong. 

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35 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

Old GFS has also been consistent the last couple of days except for yesterday's 18z blip.

You haven't been following the 500s then. They have been all over the place and that is where your really need to be looking.

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Why?

 

It’s been said numerous times that Mitch asked for his account to be deleted, Randy said no, so Mitch left.

 

However, he still reads I think as I have been told that he has messaged people here about stuff that’s been posted. I’m sure he appreciates that everyone misses him. But he chose to stop posting.

 

So I think it’s best we just let it go and let him do whatever it is he needs or wants to do.

 

Agree with waterboy that this should be in banter.

 

 

.

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3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

You haven't been following the 500s then. They have been all over the place and that is where your really need to be looking.

That is true. 

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back.   0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge.

That’s more than a bit of a step back. 12z had 12-20” throughout the area.

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back.   0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge.

Glad I can check out now.

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You have to wonder if the other models are leading the way now trying to get to solution number two and the GFS brothers are playing catch-up.

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1 minute ago, jewell2188 said:

Glad I can check out now.

The hits just keep coming tonight.  Bad day but you gotta keep rolling on in this hobby.  

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10 minutes ago, high risk said:

18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back.   0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge.

you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? 

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3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

you sure you're not looking at yesterday's 18z? 

 

    go ahead and check for yourself.     It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4.      It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer.   There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data.

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Just now, high risk said:

 

    go ahead and check for yourself.     It's clearly listed as the 18z run on 12/4.      It clearly ran, and that's the NCEP site which can plot it directly from the files on the supercomputer.   There is clearly some issue with the other sites that have to download the data.

My brain cells must be warped today bc I’ve been on there and I don’t see anything labeled the FV3. Only NAM, GFS, GEFS and the normal models. 

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