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WxUSAF

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall.  It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This looks like  @showmethesnow  overrunnning Christmas eve event.

 

Ground truth in the ens members is rain unfortunately. GEFS hints towards things improving after Christmas but it's a progressive northern stream pattern in general. We've scored in that setup in 13-15 but it doesn't normally come that easy. A lot of time to pass between now and the holiday so plenty of shifts on tap as we move closer. 

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Future pattern screams clippers that bomb away on coast. Hopefully can get them to cut underneath.


.

GEFS screams overrunning threats starting around the 23rd-25th.  We'll see if it looks similar in verification in 2 weeks.  

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35 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall.  It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

Just because you have a trough in the east doesn't mean a low will necessarily run up the coast. A lot of it depends on the trough axis. Now other factors can come into play but generally speaking a trough axis that is positive moving towards a neutral tilt will normally feature a progressive/OTS low as it pushes the low in front of it. While a trough moving from a neutral to a negative tilt will typically grab the low and pull it northward up the coast. 

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30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

It depends on the “tilt”, curve or sharpness of the trough.  You want to be above or left of the trough arm as it comes up the coast. Position is critical 

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

No posts in hours smh

Outside of trolling, what is there to discuss? We pretty much shut down( like the govt apparently will be soon). See ya in 2 weeks!

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2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Outside of trolling, what is there to discuss? We pretty much shut down( like the govt apparently will be soon). See ya in 2 weeks!

18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.

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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.

Yeah I saw that. Good ol' Happy Hour. The advertised pattern is not a complete shut out, so there will be some op teases from time to time.

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:
5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.

Nice. Except for the fact its precipitationless

Hence the "tease" part

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14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.

BOOM. happy hour white Christmas

 

Suk it h8ers

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

Not bad. I am way into that Norlun at hr 162 that snows on my yard. That will totally verify.

All in?  

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18 minutes ago, Ji said:
20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:
18z GFS has a fluke tease for next Mon/Tues.

Nice. Except for the fact its precipitationless

Here's the leesburg 15 day eps meteogram. Let me know what you want to discuss when you're done. 

SU7IVIP.jpg

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the leesburg 15 day eps meteogram. Let me know what you want to discuss when you're done. 

 

Look at that increase right around Xmas!

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lots of interesting looks around Christmas on the gfs and Fv3 

GEFS continues to advertise a generally cold look for Xmas and beyond, in contrast to the EPS, which is jumpy, but generally wants to dump a trough out west for awhile with weak ridging over the east. GFS/GEFS look would indeed be quite interesting.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

GEFS continues to advertise a generally cold look for Xmas and beyond, in contrast to the EPS, which is jumpy, but generally wants to dump a trough out west for awhile with weak ridging over the east. GFS/GEFS look would indeed be quite interesting.

I'm actually betting on a gefs win here. Seems like typical EPS bias error at play. 

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Lots of interesting looks around Christmas on the gfs and Fv3 

Definitely seems like the weather dice will be rolling...now let's see what we land on (hey, just having a frozen option even ON the dice around that time of year is a bit of a bonus, lol)

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