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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

With the exception of warmer and rainier, it can only get better from here. 

we just went through our driest stretch in forever. No measureble precip at Dulles in 10 days. While we are -4 below normal to start off Dec. One of the most dissapointing starts to winter ive ever witnessed

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's not a disaster because it's December, but it IS disappointing to have temps so much colder than average in the wettest year ever and have nothing to show for it, especially when there was a lot of hype in November about the early December pattern. 

What a difference 100 miles would have made. 

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3 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Not pretty...but maybe some positives can be taken regarding the christmas-ish storm?  Better ridge axis this run...50/50 in better position.  A few adjustment and it would be a whole dif outcome....

FgAzNie.png

The run was fine for being 11+ days out and in fact not far from a hit for our region. Showing the NS diving down in the midwest and going negative tilt as it is hitting the east coast. Little deeper dig and we are in the money as it would bring significant cold with it.

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15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Just 1 run but the 12z gefs looks a lot like what the EPS was showing with trough west/AN heights in the east. Not a pretty look but could easily roll forward into something nice. Building -AO through the end of the run

lhyH2Ms.jpg

After a cold period around xmas I expect the trough to retrograde into the west for a little bit.  The key to progressing that look into what we want heading into January is to either get the Aleutian trough to develop to press the EPO ridge east and/or the AO/NAO to tank which would suppress the entire flow and create a broader trough over the whole CONUS.   Get one or the other and its pretty good.   Get both (like the seasonal/weekly euro shows) and its epic.  The timing of such a pattern developing is probably into January.  But before that if the EPO ridge goes up there would be transient periods where cold presses enough to give us chances.   But we need one of those two developments to get a sustained favorable snow pattern.  

ETA:  even that look right there isnt actually warm if you look at the temperature anomalies...we are right around normal, slightly above 850, slightly below surface.  With that kind of look over the top cold would be pressing south and we would have a colder reality then the heights might suggest.  

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Just 1 run but the 12z gefs looks a lot like what the EPS was showing with trough west/AN heights in the east. Not a pretty look but could easily roll forward into something nice. Building -AO through the end of the run

lhyH2Ms.jpg

The SPV will get beaten into submission and the ensembles will respond. Gotta like the look up top on this panel. We could be back to a favorable pattern sooner than we think.

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Damn, eps looks ugly. Aleutian ridge/goa trough/se ridge setting up. WTH? Is this a nina?

LOL I am looking at it now. Not a Nino look for sure. I thought it might manage to take 2 baby steps forward after some improvement last night. I am just hoping the SSW stuff is real and the models will catch on in another week to 10 days. This ain't looking real pretty for now.

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This was a pretty big shift so I'm not jumping to any conclusions. The GOA trough is a bit of a dagger for our area. That better be a totally wrong or transient. 

Chuck is right with the 180 comment lol. Even though the EPS has overall been unsteady run-to-run lately, it has been incrementally moving in this direction. Not sure what to think about it.

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well, we've already had one nina-like suppression, so...lol (but I hope not...to have a nina look in a nino would just be torture! C'mon!)

That wasn't a nina like suppression at all. It was classic nino miller A that couldn't push through the confluence. Think about the 09-10 storms. We got SNE'd last week. 

There are zero worries about suppression with what the EPS just showed. Storm track will be somewhere between Chicago and Cleveland.  

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That wasn't a nina like suppression at all. It was classic nino miller A that couldn't push through the confluence. Think about the 09-10 storms. We got SNE'd last week. 

There are zero worries about suppression with what the EPS just showed. Storm track will be somewhere between Chicago and Cleveland.  

True...even so...I mean, have there been ninos that ended up behaving like ninas?

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