December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[showmethesnow]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Seeing multiple runs from both global ens showing the -EPO ridge too far west for my/our liking. Not just a little too far either. At least cold air can build in our source region even with the ridge placement so that's good. 

I would much rather see a EPO/PNA ridge myself. But think we can still work with the EPO displaced that far west as long as the NS for the most part bypasses the weakness we see in the southwest. But if too much of the NS dumps down there the pattern quickly goes to hell as some of the runs have already shown. Then we are discussing 2 weeks down the road once again.

[frd]

13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Seeing multiple runs from both global ens showing the -EPO ridge too far west for my/our liking. Not just a little too far either. At least cold air can build in our source region even with the ridge placement so that's good. 

Good point, and looking over the next 7  to 16 days a lot of snow is going to fall across Canada. Source regions should breed cold as we end the month.  There has been some persistence so far this cold season for near record breaking cold, if not here, to many locations in the Midwest and NE. 

Not sure if it will happen, but I think there is a significant cold risk out in time after the reload that we get some really cold air masses coming to visit. This may coincide with the MJO favorable phases.  

[showmethesnow]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At the very tail end of the run the GEFS dumps a system into the southwest but its still not a disaster even then, and looks temporary not a permanent problem.  But is everyone missing some developments before that?  The last 24 hours there has been a move in the right direction in the 8-14 day period.  It's not there yet but its getting close enough that a little more improvement and we could have a legit threat right before or around xmas.  These looks arent bad at all.  As is several systems dive in just to our northeast, and there is no southern stream action but its getting close to a good look for a threat. 

 

Did you also notice that the GEFS was also once again hinting at potential over running at the end of the run? As far as around Christmas. Mentioned this morning that I thought the GFS might be moving more towards a southern low/coastal idea vs. the overrunning it was initially favoring and it looks as if the GEFS has upped the ante.

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Yeah that's a great look at the end on the 12z GEFS. Looks a lot like the EPS!

yeah, look at the GEFS if you need a tug away from the ledge.  Definately not a horrible look.  Split stream overrunning kinda deal.  Just fine by me

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Did you also notice that the GEFS was also once again hinting at potential over running at the end of the run? As far as around Christmas. Mentioned this morning that I thought the GFS might be moving more towards a southern low/coastal idea vs. the overrunning it was initially favoring and it looks as if the GEFS has upped the ante.

This look right here would usually have us interested...but everyone seems to be skipping ahead to day 16 and focusing on a system crashing into the southwest which would temporarily pump a ridge in the east...

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

yeah, look at the GEFS if you need a tug away from the ledge.  Definately not a horrible look.  Split stream overrunning kinda deal.  Just fine by me

Its not the worst look, but not what I am hoping to see 2 weeks down the line.

I mostly was just being sarcastic.

[showmethesnow]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This look right here would usually have us interested...but everyone seems to be skipping ahead to day 16 and focusing on a system crashing into the southwest which would temporarily pump a ridge in the east...

I have been somewhat hyping the Christmas period for 3-4 days now so believe me, I have been taking notice and liking what we are seeing.

[Scraff]

53 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think you could show a much worse look then what the GFS has at the end of its run. Strengthening +AO with the pv planted on the pole. Strong + NAO. Strong +EPO and -PNA. Strong ridging through the Aleutians. Ridging in the central US moving eastward. Blah... In the trash heap that run goes.

Can I do call ahead seating for the panic room? 

[Bob Chill]

Just need the FV3 to hold this look for the next 58 runs and we'll score a nice overrunning event. 

[showmethesnow]

After looking over the latest GEFS run I am fine with what I see. Really no big red flags anywhere. GEFS did make a small move towards the Euro with dumping more energy in the SW post Christmas but quickly disengages and progresses eastward. Which is fine. The Christmas period is getting more interesting as we have now seen the GEFS move away from the over running idea and move towards a southern low/coastal idea. The EPO is holding strong with occasional episodes of EPO/PNA ridging. At the end of the run we are now seeing indications of an over running event. Though not an ideal pattern it is still a very workable pattern where we will probably get our chances as long as the temps cooperate.

[showmethesnow]

Not even mid December yet and we already have 99 pages in this thread? We must have had a great December so far. 

....Cue @Ji for the rebuttal....

 

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Not even mid December yet and we already have 99 pages in this thread? We must have had a great December so far. 

....Cue @Ji for the rebuttal....

 

So far...we got 99 pages but a *storm* ain't one!

(Let's hope that'll change before the 120th page...lol)

[psuhoffman]

Euro about to drop the cold hammer day 10

[pasnownut]

58 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Its not the worst look, but not what I am hoping to see 2 weeks down the line.

I mostly was just being sarcastic.

I get it, but in the upcoming pattern, we dont need a big storm popping up for days and days to back into something.

For referenece....how'd the last storm work out for us.  Footballs were being spiked by some way way out there (i say that tongue n cheek), but in reality we all got sucked in a bit.  Sneaky possible surprise should be the theme for the lead up to Christmas.  Thats all i'm saying.

[Bob Chill]

Just want to clear the air about where I stand with the next few weeks. I don't like what I see in general and it's surely not a hemispheric pattern that gets me excited about our prospects but it's not a shutout pattern once we get close to the holiday and beyond. Many of our smaller events happen in really jacked up/strange/unusual ways. I'm not in any way ruling that out but I'm not going to get excited about anything discrete either unless we're inside of 5-6 days or so. It's going to be over a week before we're in that kind of range. 

The way I'm seeing it is that we only have 1 of the factors (cold air) coming into focus down the road. It looks like the northern stream is going to be active and that can hurt more than it helps this time of year especially without any blocking. Looking through the GEFS members last few days shows a common theme of lows rolling by to our north. If one of them can become a transient 50/50 at the right time it works. No op or ensemble is going to have the northern stream remotely figured out d10+.  

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro about to drop the cold hammer day 10

Indeed... but I don't know if its going to last that long... it looks a bit transient looking up north.  Or am I reading that wrong?

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, yoda said:

Indeed... but I don't know if its going to last that long... it looks a bit transient looking up north.  Or am I reading that wrong?

Hard to tell. Convoluted pattern. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Would be great to score a surprise, advisory level over-running event for Christmas.

[LP08]

EPS looks better for the week of Christmas.  Isn't dumping as much energy in the SW.  Not a bad look overall.

[LP08]

Looks seasonable to slightly below average.  EPO Ridge closer to the west coast allowing for a further east cold dump.  Baby steps!

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would be great to score a surprise, advisory level over-running event for Christmas.

Hey--white is white--advisory or not! It's so rare I would take it any way it comes!

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, showmethesnow said:

Not even mid December yet and we already have 99 pages in this thread? We must have had a great December so far. 

....Cue @Ji for the rebuttal....

 

Epic pattern.  Scored feet of pattern.  And one of the best cirrus storms of all time.

[showmethesnow]

Geez. Quarter of 5 and the EPS is still only out to day 10 on Weatherbell. 

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Geez. Quarter of 5 and the EPS is still only out to day 10 on Weatherbell. 

WB sucks bad lately.

[CAPE]

Christmas! We need a SSW event or something. Chuck?

This panel is not all bad, but you can see whats coming immediately after- trough dumping in the west and more ridging in the east.

[WxUSAF]

^pretty different than GEFS at the same time. USA! USA!

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Christmas! We need a SSW event or something. Chuck?

This panel is not all bad, but you can see whats coming immediately after- trough dumping in the west and more ridging in the east.

Yea, eps is bleeding the wrong way with heights in the east during the holiday week. Warmest run yet in the LR and def not a snow pattern. It's way out there so no sense over thinking it but the eps has been very stubborn with showing slim chances of a decent event anytime soon. 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

^pretty different than GEFS at the same time. USA! USA!

We need to hope the gefs/geps win this model war. I'm assuming the eps is following the mjo and that's not always a 1:1 correlation. If this is where we are heading during the holiday week it will be a bit of a bummer....

[CAPE]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Yea, eps is bleeding the wrong way with heights in the east during the holiday week. Warmest run yet in the LR and def not a snow pattern. It's way out there so no sense over thinking it but the eps has been very stubborn with showing slim chances of a decent event anytime soon. 

It is also difficult to deny that the GEFS has moved towards that general idea the last couple runs. Lots going on, with the strat and stuff. It is conceivable things could look different in a few days.

[Bob Chill]

9 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

It is also difficult to deny that the GEFS has moved towards that general idea the last couple runs. Lots going on, with the strat and stuff. It is conceivable things could look different in a few days.

Not the end of the world. Even if the eps is right it's a far better pattern than the pac onslaught going on over the next 10 days. The only crappy part is it keeps pushing things down the road. Which is pretty much how we roll every Dec. Lol. 

I won't lie, I'm intrigued by the strat stuff. We haven't had a weak PV like this since 2011 unless I'm missing a year? 2011-12 had blocking so it might have been weak that year but nothing could have saved that dumpster fire. Gfs is locked in on a major disruption and to a lesser extent the euro has a similar event unfolding. If the strat gets suplexed into oblivion it could actually be meaningful for the first time in a long time. We always joke about SSW talk being a sure sign that we're in big trouble. Maybe it plays out for once...