December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Here's the EPS 5day H5 mean in the LR. Looks like a northern stream dominated pattern in general but even if there is a southern wave, the most probable track is too far west or north to work here. The h5 pattern doesn't show much chance at a northern stream system tracking underneath us. Pretty common this early in the year though. Northern stream storms generally happen in JFM when the jet is displaced south more easily. 

If a southern wave tracks towards us the pattern favors a west track of anything organized. There is no sign of the stable features that can suppress a storm. Not saying it can't happen because any well timed departing low can force a trailing one underneath us but this panel doesn't show a -NAO, 50/50, or displaced PV. Without one of those 3 features we're going to struggle here. 

 

 

GEFS looks a little better than the EPS but not by much. 

Eps has sucked and has been trending towards the gefs in regards to the pattern change by the 20th.

I don't see how you think the pattern looks bad by xmas. That's a better pattern that we are in right now.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has sucked and has been trending towards the gefs in regards to the pattern change by the 20th.

I don't see how you think the pattern looks bad by xmas. That's a better pattern that we are in right now.

It looks bad for our area so it's perspective.  If I lived in NY or SNE I would think different. It's hard as hell to get a northern stream shortwave to track south of DC in December. 

ETA: the gefs doesn't look that great either for the MA but def better than the eps. Somewhere in between is the most common outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Eps has sucked and has been trending towards the gefs in regards to the pattern change by the 20th.

I don't see how you think the pattern looks bad by xmas. That's a better pattern that we are in right now.

Anything is better then now lol. Bob has good points.  If your big storm hunting it's a bad look. And if the trough axis ends up too west we likely are cold dry warm wet. We do that well. But I'm more optimistic because I think it's just a step in a progression towards an even better look in January. If that was "all it is" then I would be disappointed too. So this is a matter of perspective kinda. 

[Bob Chill]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Anything is better then now lol. Bob has good points.  If your big storm hunting it's a bad look. And if the trough axis ends up too west we likely are cold dry warm wet. We do that well. But I'm more optimistic because I think it's just a step in a progression towards an even better look in January. If that was "all it is" then I would be disappointed too. So this is a matter of perspective kinda. 

Yea, I'm 100% talking about snow chances through the end of Dec. I'm not down on winter at all. I'm just not feeling the next 2-3 weeks. 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It looks bad for our area so it's perspective.  If I lived in NY or SNE I would think different. It's hard as hell to get a northern stream shortwave to track south of DC in December. 

ETA: the gefs doesn't look that great either for the MA but def better than the eps. Somewhere in between is the most common outcome. 

I agree

Seeing the south getting snow and all of us getting nothing is heartbreaking

[psuhoffman]

One thing that sucks...we missed our chance as an early hit. We had it. Some of the nino years had one early hit. 1957, 2002, 2009...we could have this year. We had a window. Just missed. Bad luck. But now we have to wait for a reload. That's often the case. Many of our big events happen as a good pattern breaks down. One thing that places the ridge trough axis right is when we get a trough just off the west coast when cold is already in place. Problem is that configuration also spells doom to the pattern as it will flood the Conus with PAC air a week later. So we get a hecs window but we're on borrowed time. Later in winter we can also survive that more but this early we need a pattern rebuild. When it became apparent this last  storm was destined to be a close miss the thing that annoyed me most was knowing that it meant the doom and gloom brigade would come out in full force during the coming pattern reload. 

[SnowGoose69]

42 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Depends what you think is more right...the GEFS/GEPS both advertise a very workable pattern.  Not a big ticket item pattern but a cold active look with multiple waves.  The EPS, if it were to verify, is a shutout bar the doors for a while look.  I am skeptical of the EPS look, it tried to dump the pre xmas trough into the west a few days ago...then backed off and now has that initial cold shot coming into the Midwest and east.  Now it is dumping the next shot down into the southwest.  It does this again and again.  Usually it's overdone.  Perhaps a compromise here is best, as showmethesnow suggests.

What such a pattern would look like...probably not some snowfest HECS looking thing that some are itching for.  Clippers and progressive waves would be favored.  Anything that amps up too much or phases would likely cut.  But if such a pattern had legs we would likely luck our way into a snow event.  A 1-3" type thing is more likely then a warning event.  I guess expectations here matter a lot.  One is whether one is buying the euro...if you are then yea it looks awful.  I am not.  The other is if your bar is a big ticket item.  I am very hopeful we get more than one warning event this winter...but I have said I think that comes post January 15th.  All the analogs suggest that is when to look for it.  Before that I just want to see some snow.  One of the things that separated some of the truly epic years from the just ok to good ones was that we managed to get some snow and build numbers even during the less than ideal periods.  If we can luck our way into a couple clippers and overrunning events and we are all sitting around 6-10" going into mid January that is a great sign that this winter could end up in the epic category imo.  

I’m afraid these days of ever saying a big event is impossible or even highly unlikely in an unfavorable pattern.  It seems the last decade that monster snow events have occurred often in miserable patterns very often 

[WxUSAF]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m afraid these days of ever saying a big event is impossible or even highly unlikely in an unfavorable pattern.  It seems the last decade that monster snow events have occurred often in miserable patterns very often 

A lot of that comes down to how shortwaves shake out in a dominant long wave pattern. As @psuhoffman hinted, if you look at the H5 pattern over North America as big EC storms are occurring, it doesn't look that good because you have a big trough on the west coast usually.  Not to mention you're sometimes flipping the NAO as well.  

The upcoming LW pattern doesn't scream big coastal storms by any means, but there should be cold air around and the pattern has been stormy as we've seen.  Give us enough waves with those 2 ingredients in place, and I think we can get the shortwaves to line up for us to get snow.  

[yoda]

12z GFS has a coastal on Christmas Eve... but its a nice rainy one

[showmethesnow]

Good news is Christmas eve shows a coastal with a 997 mb low of the bay's mouth. Bad news is the temps have been wrecked by a low pushing through the lakes where we are waiting for the cold to bleed back in.

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS has a coastal on Christmas Eve... but its a nice rainy one

And the only thing that would be worse than sunny and 60F.  Another Merry Christmas from mother nature.

[Cobalt]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS has a coastal on Christmas Eve... but its a nice rainy one

Congrats interior NE

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Congrats interior NE

High Fives from interior NC.

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z GFS has a coastal on Christmas Eve... but its a nice rainy one

Like an arrow through the heart.  Oy.

[anotherman]

12 days away.  Plenty of time to change.

[showmethesnow]

The end of the GFS run is just plain ugly. Good thing it is only at op run at range.

[frd]

I didn't know Ventrice was a strat Weenie , ha ha ha 

The strat stuff is encouraging, but it still does not make up for the fact the GFS is moving closer to the Euro I think , ugh.  

 

 

 

 

[showmethesnow]

Just now, frd said:

I didn't know Ventrice was a strat Weenie , ha ha ha 

The strat stuff is encouraging, but it still does not make up for the fact the GFS is moving closer to the Euro I think , ugh.  

 

 

 

 

A +EPO that digs all the way down towards Baja? Don't even think the EPS was that bad. That would be a pattern wrecker for sure. Good thing it was only an op run at range. Now if the GEFS starts moving that way...

Wonder if the panic room has any vacancies? Just in case. 

[showmethesnow]

Don't think you could show a much worse look then what the GFS has at the end of its run. Strengthening +AO with the pv planted on the pole. Strong + NAO. Strong +EPO and -PNA. Strong ridging through the Aleutians. Ridging in the central US moving eastward. Blah... In the trash heap that run goes.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think you could show a much worse look then what the GFS has at the end of its run. Strengthening +AO with the pv planted on the pole. Strong + NAO. Strong +EPO and -PNA. Strong ridging through the Aleutians. Ridging in the central US moving eastward. Blah... In the trash heap that run goes.

Check out the gefs

Way different

[CAPE]

6 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think you could show a much worse look then what the GFS has at the end of its run. Strengthening +AO with the pv planted on the pole. Strong + NAO. Strong +EPO and -PNA. Strong ridging through the Aleutians. Ridging in the central US moving eastward. Blah... In the trash heap that run goes.

Not much more to say here. I'll meet you in the Panic Room.

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

Check out the gefs

Way different

Thanks for the tip!

What would we do without you popping in from the NYC sub to set us straight.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks for the tip!

What would we do without you popping in from the NYC sub to set us straight.

A lot of people on here love the eps but it has sucked. Some people never learn.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

Thanks for the tip!

What would we do without you popping in from the NYC sub to set us straight.

You do know people go to other subforums to chat?

[showmethesnow]

The latest GEFS run did move somewhat towards the EPS as far as the second dump of NS energy into the Southwest, post Christmas. 

[CAPE]

16 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

A lot of people on here love the eps but it has sucked. Some people never learn.

Yeah that's a great look at the end on the 12z GEFS. Looks a lot like the EPS!

[frd]

11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

Don't think you could show a much worse look then what the GFS has at the end of its run. Strengthening +AO with the pv planted on the pole. Strong + NAO. Strong +EPO and -PNA. Strong ridging through the Aleutians. Ridging in the central US moving eastward. Blah... In the trash heap that run goes.

I think expect variability with the long range. I have no idea how the GFS has the PV planted on the pole. 

Something has to give. Maybe the GFS kissed the CFS and caught a systems bug .........

Lord knows the climate model has been off in "real" time. 

Hey showme does the Oracle hang out in the Panic room  ?   :0 

  

[Bob Chill]

Just now, showmethesnow said:

The latest GEFS run did move towards the EPS as far as the second dump of NS energy into the Southwest, post Christmas. 

Seeing multiple runs from both global ens showing the -EPO ridge too far west for my/our liking. Not just a little too far either. At least cold air can build in our source region even with the ridge placement so that's good. 

[yoda]

Both 12z GFS and 12z FV3 have juicy coastal for Christmas... but with no cold air around, its a rainy coastal 

[psuhoffman]

At the very tail end of the run the GEFS dumps a system into the southwest but its still not a disaster even then, and looks temporary not a permanent problem.  But is everyone missing some developments before that?  The last 24 hours there has been a move in the right direction in the 8-14 day period.  It's not there yet but its getting close enough that a little more improvement and we could have a legit threat right before or around xmas.  These looks arent bad at all.  As is several systems dive in just to our northeast, and there is no southern stream action but its getting close to a good look for a threat.