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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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I found the WB video by JB of interest this AM, I hardly ever mention it but this morning I enjoyed his look at the forecasted convection in the Indian Ocean, or lack there ,of starting in about 15 to 20 days.

Then he did a comparison to previous convection episodes in that same area in the past, and what those patterns/looks gave NA the following Jan, well, you guessed it , a very cold look.  

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14 minutes ago, frd said:

I found the WB video by JB of interest this AM, I hardly ever mention it but this morning I enjoyed his look at the forecasted convection in the Indian Ocean, or lack there ,of starting in about 15 to 20 days.

Then he did a comparison to previous convection episodes in that same area in the past, and what those patterns/looks gave NA the following Jan, well, you guessed it , a very cold look.  

Just cold? Or snowy? Lol

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Quick update on the start , seems the wave 1 did its job, but we need a lot more to get a significant event. However, more activity seems lined up t take place. 

The most important thing is how wave 2 follows up and the nature of it. 

A lot of people on twitter strat watch get a little too gung hoo on things. Most times forecasts have little value out in time so consistency/trends, etc. is so important. 

Also, HM stated things have to come together at the right time to produce certain outcomes, and certain outcomes predicted by the models at a forecast time in the future will change a significantly. 

However the trends so far this season have been for certain events to occur favoring SPV weakening and displacements. 

HM brings another good pooint the tropical forcing is a key  in the strat process. 

I read the final outcome is still in question in regards to what happens after the wave 2. Is there a split, a displacement, etc? 

      

 

 

 

 

interesting to add this as well 

 

 

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This looks like  @showmethesnow  overrunnning Christmas eve event.

 

Ground truth in the ens members is rain unfortunately. GEFS hints towards things improving after Christmas but it's a progressive northern stream pattern in general. We've scored in that setup in 13-15 but it doesn't normally come that easy. A lot of time to pass between now and the holiday so plenty of shifts on tap as we move closer. 

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5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Future pattern screams clippers that bomb away on coast. Hopefully can get them to cut underneath.


.

GEFS screams overrunning threats starting around the 23rd-25th.  We'll see if it looks similar in verification in 2 weeks.  

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35 minutes ago, kurtstack said:

There were some very positive developments in the 12z GFS regarding ridge trough locations overall.  It will be interesting if the ensembles start trending toward the trough in east ridge in the west look.

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

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28 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

Just because you have a trough in the east doesn't mean a low will necessarily run up the coast. A lot of it depends on the trough axis. Now other factors can come into play but generally speaking a trough axis that is positive moving towards a neutral tilt will normally feature a progressive/OTS low as it pushes the low in front of it. While a trough moving from a neutral to a negative tilt will typically grab the low and pull it northward up the coast. 

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30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Another rookie-ish question...now does a tough in the east always mean storms ride up the coast instead of OTS? (of course I would assume that they can still cut in such a setup?)

It depends on the “tilt”, curve or sharpness of the trough.  You want to be above or left of the trough arm as it comes up the coast. Position is critical 

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