WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 30 minutes ago, frd said: I have not seen this brought up yet, but I have noticed it in the previous releases from October all the way to now with the seasonal models. When you look at the Euro seasonal and some other models the main above average precip anamolies are all to the South of us. I am NOT saying the look is dry but the main +1 and + 2 deviatons are over the TN Valley, extending onto NC, and SC. etc. New England itself looked very dry. May not mean a thing once we get further into the season. But, when I read your post CAPE it reminded me. That’s nino climo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: That’s nino climo. Thanks. The models last night reinforced your call on post Christmas looking better and better for tracking. Looking forward to weeklies tonight for that time period. Eh, have to pass the time over the next 10 or so days. Still impressed by this cold every day I step outside in the morning. At least the bugs are gone, well except for the two stink bugs that hitched a ride inside our home on our Christmas tree we cut down. ( Did not notice notice them until I heard my daughter's scream ) Other than that pretty much a deep winter look and feel the last couple mornings, minus the snow cover :-( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 We just need to keep getting opportunities in the long range and one will break our way. This last one hurt but we will score of threats keep popping up after this moderate period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: We just need to keep getting opportunities in the long range and one will break our way. This last one hurt but we will score of threats keep popping up after this moderate period Way too rational for this forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 hours ago, Wonderdog said: That time period is our next threat. We can will it north up the coast. There will be something before that. Just gut feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 hours ago, frd said: Thanks. The models last night reinforced your call on post Christmas looking better and better for tracking. Looking forward to weeklies tonight for that time period. Eh, have to pass the time over the next 10 or so days. Still impressed by this cold every day I step outside in the morning. At least the bugs are gone, well except for the two stink bugs that hitched a ride inside our home on our Christmas tree we cut down. ( Did not notice notice them until I heard my daughter's scream ) Other than that pretty much a deep winter look and feel the last couple mornings, minus the snow cover :-( Weeklies tonight might take longer to evolve. Last nights EPS backed off getting the trough east quickly. Interesting to see if that holds today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Weeklies tonight might take longer to evolve. Last nights EPS backed off getting the trough east quickly. Interesting to see if that holds today. Yeah, will be interesting, I do like seeing the EPO trending back down in a few days, and then near the 23 rd goes negative. Have to see how long to get cold back in here after that. Might be a few days, could be a week. No clear answer yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, frd said: Yeah, will be interesting, I do like seeing the EPO trending back down in a few days, and then near the 23 rd goes negative. Have to see how long to get cold back in here after that. Might be a few days, could be a week. No clear answer yet. If it's like the majority of epo flips, the cold will come in pieces before the motherlode. Sometimes a strong front can just blast through (like Feb 2015) but most of the time the cold highs run the east spine of the rockies then moderate as they get here before a strong front starts putting the east in the direct crosshairs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If it's like the majority of epo flips, the cold will come in pieces before the motherlode. Sometimes a strong front can just blast through (like Feb 2015) but most of the time the cold highs run the east spine of the rockies then moderate as they get here before a strong front starts putting the east in the direct crosshairs. And that phased cold entry can provide storm chances as by late December, we don’t need too much temp help for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And that phased cold entry can provide storm chances as by late December, we don’t need too much temp help for snow. Truth. The really short story is the faster we can push pac maritime air out of the way and get back to cold continental in Canada the better off we'll be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If it's like the majority of epo flips, the cold will come in pieces before the motherlode. Sometimes a strong front can just blast through (like Feb 2015) but most of the time the cold highs run the east spine of the rockies then moderate as they get here before a strong front starts putting the east in the direct crosshairs. 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: And that phased cold entry can provide storm chances as by late December, we don’t need too much temp help for snow. The look on the end of the EPS isnt bad per say. Yea there are marginally high heights over the east but its still not a warm look, given that EPO cold would be pressing further into the higher heights then during other patterns. We could get a wave type system in that pattern. Long term keep that look up in western Canada and the CONUS would become a cold air factory and get colder and colder with a sustained NW flow...add in some nino stj action and as long as the NAO/AO dont decide to go to complete crap were probably looking at a pretty good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 GFS doesn’t like the euros Thursday or Sunday snow showers, but gives us an awesome rain clipper/Miller B next Monday. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Re: @psuhoffman, if we’re going into an EPO dominated pattern, we need some SE ridge and/or WAR or else we’re in cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS doesn’t like the euros Thursday or Sunday snow showers, but gives us an awesome rain clipper/Miller B next Monday. lol That is the storm that will become the Philly north blizzard to create the DC snowhole! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: Re: @psuhoffman, if we’re going into an EPO dominated pattern, we need some SE ridge and/or WAR or else we’re in cold and dry. yea that's why I am not that bothered by the long range look on the EPS... I don't care much about cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Re: @psuhoffman, if we’re going into an EPO dominated pattern, we need some SE ridge and/or WAR or else we’re in cold and dry. Huh...so we need to root against the EPO, then?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS doesn’t like the euros Thursday or Sunday snow showers, but gives us an awesome rain clipper/Miller B next Monday. lol Yes, but it goes out to sea and no snow for SNE... for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS doesn’t like the euros Thursday or Sunday snow showers, but gives us an awesome rain clipper/Miller B next Monday. lol watch the L between 120-136 if ya wanna chuckle. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...so we need to root against the EPO, then?... No. Just not too much. You've seen this long enough to know that there are no absolutes in weather. To give you an analogy that might help, it's like making soup and ingredients used. Somethings missing....no good. Too much of something.....no good. Wrong blend..... capiche? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...so we need to root against the EPO, then?... No. It’s never one index that equals snow for us. EPO and AO are big for us for getting cold air available. But then we need storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Huh...so we need to root against the EPO, then?... Dude it's over...its obviously not going to snow here ever again. Seriously though...if the EPO is going very negative it will cause a NW flow into the CONUS. That will flood our area with cold. That of course is good in that we need cold to snow. But if we have a NW flow across the CONUS and there is no STJ or ridge at all in the southeast....it will just be cold and dry. We might get some clippers but that's about it. We would need some resistance to the cold. What creates big snowstorms, in an overly simplified way without getting into a full meteorology course here, is warm air pressing or resisting the boundary with the cold air. If cold overwhelms the pattern and there is no resistance at all that is no good. So in an EPO driven pattern SOME SE ridge isnt a bad thing. In that type of pattern we would be looking for wave type systems like the January storms in 2014 or the February and March 2015 systems. Later if we build a more favorable -NAO the dynamic could change and what we want would be different. EVERY pattern can have nuances that would effect our snow chances. There is NO pattern where we are guaranteed snow without needing a little luck. Our absolute best pattern for snow involves a -NAO +PNA and an active STJ. That is why a nino is typically a good thing because there is a correlation between a west based nino and all 3 of those, especially the PNA and STJ...then just get a period of favorable NAO and...boom. BUT we have had plenty of such patterns where it just didn't come together. The blocking was centered slightly too far south and the storm got suppressed. The confluence left 12 hours too early and the storm cut. We still need things to break our way even in a good pattern. That's why the median snowfall for this area is only about 15". If it was that easy to get snow here it would be a lot higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes, but it goes out to sea and no snow for SNE... for now lol just wait.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 A little less northern stream and the 22/23rd storm on the GFS might have been good. Still has the idea of a threat right after xmas. Looks like a typical EPO pattern with storms running the boundary west to east. ETA: its dumping everything into the west on this run for the storm after xmas...pumping a monster ridge ahead of it... one possible option, that can happen in an epo pattern with no atlantic blocking if too much energy digs into the west in one piece. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 This is going to be painful with the troll twins B&P in full assault Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 HUGE trough in the west at the end of the 12z GFS with a monster HP moving E through Canada... but thats a ridiculous ridge out east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: HUGE trough in the west at the end of the 12z GFS with a monster HP moving E through Canada... but thats a ridiculous ridge out east less energy dump into the west and that could quickly morph into a good look...way too far out to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 10, 2018 Author Share Posted December 10, 2018 Entertaining gfs run. Stormy throughout and even during our “torch”, there’s some cold nearby. Lots of support for overrunning chances starting around the 23rd. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This is going to be painful with the troll twins B&P in full assault They need to reign it in. No need to punish all of the board trolling maestro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 11 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: This is going to be painful with the troll twins B&P in full assault uh oh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 10, 2018 Share Posted December 10, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: uh oh Yikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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