AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 The pattern is not very hopeful for an El NIno, and where I thought we'd be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, Ji said: the only block we get is the block that blocks us from getting snow Correct. That's why that storm will happen as is. It's a lock and there will be no changes. I'm not even joking. Imagine if we loved rain. This hobby would be 90% less stressful. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Correct. That's why that storm will happen as is. It's a lock and there will be no changes. I'm not even joking. Imagine if we loved rain. This hobby would be 90% less stressful. the last time a modeled cutter didnt pan out.....we were eating crabs at Marcus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 God has spoken... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 GFS setting up the Xmas torch nicely at 384 lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: GFS setting up the Xmas torch nicely at 384 lol Well the day 16 on an op aside...I actually like some of what I am seeing the last few runs in the period after the big bomb cutter... plenty of energy diving into that trough with ridging in a good spot up top. Its an "interesting" period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is definitey not an El Nino 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Expect the longer term weekly models to start losing the +PNA configuration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Expect the longer term weekly models to start losing the +PNA configuration I love reading all of the in-depth analysis here on this site. It is so wonderful to have so many posters with such a vast knowledge of the weather!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GEFS and EPS are picking up on a possible decent track between the 19th-22nd. It's an ok long wave pattern for something to track underneath but temps will remain suspect due to pacific airmasses even with a perfect track. 12z gefs actually looks half decent. Active southern stream undercutting the canadian ridge could produce an overrunning event or even a coastal track. It's a longshot and way too far away to have a lick of confidence but it's not a shutout pattern leading into the holiday week at least. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 34 minutes ago, mattie g said: This is definitey not an El Nino The hemispheric energies are low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The hemispheric energies are low Careful, don't be tempted by the dark side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, frd said: Careful, don't be tempted by the dark side. I am Bendu Agree with Bob temps won't come easy but the longwave pattern is decent the week leading up to Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I Like December 21. I think its gonna be cold and snowy. There I said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I hope in Jan 2019, when we are in storm mode awaiting our HECS we get the same kind of consistency , ha :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Hmm, this is without the pending assault pn the SPV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Here comes our Christmas Eve/Christmas Day snowstorm moving thru the Rockies on the 23rd. It's gonna happen: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Why has every model been -NAO for the Winter, it's been 5 straight Winter's of +NAO. They've had a really hard time developing, -NAO waves. It's not going to happen without Stratospheric warming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 This is a big time +NAO signal for the Winter (-minus high ice/snow accretion indicator -NAO, which makes the index only slightly positive) 9-1-3 since I discovered it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: The hemispheric energies are low But the cow flatulence has been high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Same thing, over the Aleutian islands its wave after wave of Lows cutting into the RNA ridge. This is new model development, it will be hard to -PNA this Winter. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Why has every model been -NAO for the Winter, it's been 5 straight Winter's of +NAO. They've had a really hard time developing, -NAO waves. It's not going to happen without Stratospheric warming. Not sure every model is actually advertising that, but there is a pretty strong correlation between a CP/ EP based El Nino, and development of a -NAO, especially during the latter half of winter. I suspect we will see some legit NA blocking periods this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Reminds me of December 2016. Massive breaks in the Hadley with North America flooding with tropical warmth. Get your toaster baths ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Reminds me of December 2016. Massive breaks in the Hadley with North America flooding with tropical warmth. Get your toaster baths ready. We missed you 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We missed you Lol. Some people should be required to get a license before operating a keyboard. In weather news... gefs and eps are agreeing on the -epo and aleutian low setting up before Christmas. Based on the h5 progression, the first legit cold airmass would be centered in the west first and then shift eastward. Seeing close ens agreement and prominent anomaly locations this far out in time is very encouraging. I have a strong hunch we'll be tracking a legit east coast threat during the holiday week. If the weeklies are more right then wrong it would be the beginning of an extended wintry period in the east half of the conus. We can still score before that bit it's a long shot pattern. I'm getting kind of excited. The -epo has shown up a lot since 2013 but not during a nino. Aleutian low, -epo, and split flow could get really interesting... 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Some people should be required to get a license before operating a keyboard. In weather news... gefs and eps are agreeing on the -epo and aleutian low setting up before Christmas. Based on the h5 progression, the first legit cold airmass would be centered in the west first and then shift eastward. Seeing close ens agreement and prominent anomaly locations this far out in time is very encouraging. I have a strong hunch we'll be tracking a legit east coast threat during the holiday week. If the weeklies are more right then wrong it would be the beginning of an extended wintry period in the east half of the conus. We can still score before that bit it's a long shot pattern. I'm getting kind of excited. The -epo has shown up a lot since 2013 but not during a nino. Aleutian low, -epo, and split flow could get really interesting... Feb/Early March 2015 was -epo/+pna driven, wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 28 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Lol. Some people should be required to get a license before operating a keyboard. In weather news... gefs and eps are agreeing on the -epo and aleutian low setting up before Christmas. Based on the h5 progression, the first legit cold airmass would be centered in the west first and then shift eastward. Seeing close ens agreement and prominent anomaly locations this far out in time is very encouraging. I have a strong hunch we'll be tracking a legit east coast threat during the holiday week. If the weeklies are more right then wrong it would be the beginning of an extended wintry period in the east half of the conus. We can still score before that bit it's a long shot pattern. I'm getting kind of excited. The -epo has shown up a lot since 2013 but not during a nino. Aleutian low, -epo, and split flow could get really interesting... It's getting hard to find new ways to say "everything is looking good" in terms of the winter pattern evolving everyday. I'm confident we will have ample legit threats to track and barring epic, Greek mythology worthy, only exists in Ji's nightmares kind of bad luck we should end up happy by spring. Well most of us. Ji will still be fretting about the ones that got away. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Feb/Early March 2015 was -epo/+pna driven, wasn't it? Yea. No help from the Atlantic. Look at the raging positive nao. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's getting hard to find new ways to say "everything is looking good" in terms of the winter pattern evolving everyday. I'm confident we will have ample legit threats to track and barring epic, Greek mythology worthy, only exists in Ji's nightmares kind of bad luck we should end up happy by spring. Well most of us. Ji will still be fretting about the ones that got away. Add my nightmares to that...lol You got me a little freaked out by 1980 now...but yes, if 1980 DOESN'T happen, we oughta be good!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2018 Share Posted December 8, 2018 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Add my nightmares to that...lol You got me a little freaked out by 1980 now...but yes, if 1980 DOESN'T happen, we oughta be good!! Even in 1980 DC ended up above normal snowfall. But some epic bad luck prevented it from being a blockbuster year as several BIG storms got mostly suppressed just south of D.C. It was an epic winter for central VA to NC. But seriously it's not worth worrying about it. Could that happen. Sure...but odds are against it and we can't change it by worrying so why bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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