Chris78 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 I'm waving the white flag for this weekend. Hoping for stronger confluence for next weekend. Next Saturday/Sunday has my interest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 GGEM is an apps runner next weekend...good thing its never right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: So this..."parade of vortices"...what in the atmosphere can stop that? (That is what screwed us over this time, right?) It's how it goes sometimes. The lobe spinning near 50/50 can be a great for our area. It's just 150 miles too far south this time. Sometimes it's too far north and other times its just right. It's a good east coast storm pattern as it is but areas south are getting the goods. This isn't the first time nor will it be the last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 hours ago, Bob Chill said: It's how it goes sometimes. The lobe spinning near 50/50 can be a great for our area. It's just 150 miles too far south this time. Sometimes it's too far north and other times its just right. It's a good east coast storm pattern as it is but areas south are getting the goods. This isn't the first time nor will it be the last. Euro control says we try this again next month. Maybe take 2 will be better... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Well hello there Aleutian low and -AO. Why don't you relax and get comfortable. We can hang until Spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Can really see the pattern coming together nicely at the end of the 0z EPS run. NPAC look is great- finally seeing the big blue ball being replaced by a developing EPO ridge, with the low heights retro'ed back over the Aleutians. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 ^LOL Great minds.. Nice to see the EPS and GEFS moving towards the same general look heading towards the Holidays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 12 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: ^LOL Great minds.. Oh you like how I could sense you were typing up a beautiful pattern dissertation and ninjad ya with a one liner? Lol things do look good. I was thinking how a lot of the good analogs either had no snow before Xmas or one event. And looking at some of the years without an early event there was a window of opportunity. 1977 and 2014 an early storm barely missed. Some years like 2002 and 2009 we had one early hit. This year we had the November event which if it was a couple weeks later might have been big. Almost all those years has a relax period of some length before the reload and the real winter pattern locked in. This pattern had potential but just missed. But we're following the script pretty good imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 We will be tracking something by Christmas 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We will be tracking something by Christmas Wouldn't write off the period just before Christmas. Been liking that period somewhat for the last few days. Get temps to cooperate... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't write off the period just before Christmas. Been liking that period somewhat for the last few days. Get temps to cooperate... HR 348 on the 6z GFS has what we’re looking for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Well hello there Aleutian low and -AO. Why don't you relax and get comfortable. We can hang until Spring. 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Can really see the pattern coming together nicely at the end of the 0z EPS run. NPAC look is great- finally seeing the big blue ball being replaced by a developing EPO ridge, with the low heights retro'ed back over the Aleutians. Best part is that it is showing up on both the EPS and the GEFS as seen by both the maps you posted. Looking at them there is very good agreement for 15+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Best part is that it is showing up on both the EPS and the GEFS as seen by both the maps you posted. Looking at them there is very good agreement for 15+ days out. I suspect we will begin to see some NA blocking episodes as we get into Jan. Wouldn't be surprised to see a legit, prolonged -NAO from around mid Jan lasting well into Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control says we try this again next month. Maybe take 2 will be better... Bad enough we have people throw up maps up for day 15 unicorns but now we have some throwing up day 40 storms. Geez, what has this board become? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 32 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Bad enough we have people throw up maps up for day 15 unicorns but now we have some throwing up day 40 storms. Geez, what has this board become? I know I know but I found it really uncanny how similar the setup is. Only a more consolidated stj system and no killer NS lobe in Quebec. It's like a replay where we fix our mistakes. I took it as a good sign. Give us this same general setup enough and we should win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know I know but I found it really uncanny how similar the setup is. Only a more consolidated stj system and no killer NS lobe in Quebec. It's like a replay where we fix our mistakes. I took it as a good sign. Give us this same general setup enough and we should win. To be fair to you, if I would have seen this I would have probably posted it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 7, 2018 Author Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, showmethesnow said: Wouldn't write off the period just before Christmas. Been liking that period somewhat for the last few days. Get temps to cooperate... Temps will be the issue before Xmas I think. I don’t think storms will be. That said, the current D10+ look is not far from a cold one if the ridging in Canada can shift a bit north and west. Good news is that it’s not a torch pattern, so even seasonable air can snow on us with a nice track. I still stick with my earlier call that it will snow between Xmas and New Years at least once. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Temps will be the issue before Xmas I think. I don’t think storms will be. That said, the current D10+ look is not far from a cold one if the ridging in Canada can shift a bit north and west. Good news is that it’s not a torch pattern, so even seasonable air can snow on us with a nice track. I still stick with my earlier call that it will snow between Xmas and New Years at least once. Good points and even if the immediate coastal areas don't score areas inland might be cold enough. Seems Ventrice ( undercutting risks ) is echoing your thoughts here as well. and HM too ( storms will be talked about next two weeks ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Euro control says we try this again next month. Maybe take 2 will be better... Sorry, but I don't trust anything past hour 500. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Prepare to dive PNA certainly not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Without question the biggest + EPO spike since the late summer I think. With the MJO in phases 3 to 5 , however keep in mind the dive in the AO coming up and the strat warming and PV assaults continuing. In time I expect the EPO to trend downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, jackb979 said: Incredible actually when you think about it, as was posted in this thread the GEFS, EPS, monthly, and now the CFSv2 agreeing at very long leads on a potentail great pattern for East Coast snow lovers. My goodness, look at the North Pole :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I know I know but I found it really uncanny how similar the setup is. Only a more consolidated stj system and no killer NS lobe in Quebec. It's like a replay where we fix our mistakes. I took it as a good sign. Give us this same general setup enough and we should win. Wait, so was THIS the culprit for this weekend's miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Wait, so was THIS the culprit for this weekend's miss? Yes, it's been discussed 1000 times every day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: Yes, it's been discussed 1000 times every day. No need to be flippant...in all the discussion, I didn't see where this was specifically mentioned as the reason WHY we were getting all the NS vorts and such...(I mean I saw the part about the 50/50 being too far south or whatever, but...not this specifically) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: No need to be flippant...in all the discussion, I didn't see where this was specifically mentioned as the reason WHY we were getting all the NS vorts and such...(I mean I saw the part about the 50/50 being too far south or whatever, but...not this specifically) Wasnt trying to be flippant. Sorry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 On 12/5/2018 at 11:09 AM, yoda said: John Michael sang just friends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 Man, GFS at 180 at H5. This is when I wish we had a block. I'd take my chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 7, 2018 Share Posted December 7, 2018 10 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, GFS at 180 at H5. This is when I wish we had a block. I'd take my chances the only block we get is the block that blocks us from getting snow 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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