BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: fv3 has had more precip than the op for several runs, so hopefully that's a sign. D.C. isn't quite in the good stuff yet. Also similar to the 12z ensemble fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, nw baltimore wx said: We wouldn't need storm mode if people could control themselves and not post every inane thought that goes through their head. I’ve been reading/posting for about 5 years. IMO this thread has stayed pretty on-topic wouldnt day I’ve seen a whole lot of “insane” posts. But to each their own I guess. On topic: the one big feature I’ll be watching (trend wise) next 48-72 hours is the ridge axis out west. It was touched on this morning and I definitely agree that our more successful outcomes tend to happen when the heights are ramped up and the line centers through Idaho. Key feature imo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Look at this, El Nino in +Hadley Cell cycle. The whole RNA wave becomes transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Credit deck pics for the early BUST call. Not yet verified but EURO just threw in the towel even more to the east than FV3. Credit Instant Weather Maps for the image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Euro has nice storm Days 9-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Euro has nice storm Days 9-10 Thank goodness, another weekend rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just don’t know how anyone can assess that “it’s over” based on one 6 hour run that shows Zero when the previous showed 6” and the next Zero, then 6 again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just don’t know how anyone can assess that “it’s over” based on one 6 hour run that shows Zero when the previous showed 6” and the next Zero, then 6 again.Exactly. It's still ways to go until final day. But ch4 Doug Kammerer said it's south and not to expect anything Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: Exactly. It's still ways to go until final day. But ch4 Doug Kammerer said it's south and not to expect anything Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk That’s a bold call on his part 4 days out and considering the size of their viewing area. One tick and EZF gets WWA criteria snow. 2 ticks and close to DC metro gets something. Not usually one for optimism but I don’t think this is dead and buried as far as getting some snow for some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 That’s a bold call on his part 4 days out and considering the size of their viewing area. One tick and EZF gets WWA criteria snow. 2 ticks and close to DC metro gets something. Not usually one for optimism but I don’t think this is dead and buried as far as getting some snow for some. I Agree still plenty of time and tomorrow will tell another story. I'm in NW Stafford so got at least a chance of 15%.Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I'm not buying the -PNA, there is a chance this could trend south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just so i know which thread to follow tonight...so anything storm related from now until the (potential) storm is on the Storm Mode thread just created, and anything on December outlook in general will be on this thread, correct? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2018 Author Share Posted December 5, 2018 ^yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 So... whats the next threat window? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 6 hours ago, caviman2201 said: So... whats the next threat window? lol The whole winter... euro seasonal December january February March winter mean 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Looks like a big rain storm to track in two weekends! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: It is good seeing storm after storm showing up in guidance...sooner or later we'll get ours . Gfs showing a real strong low day day 9 giving Garrett co snow . Glancing over the GFS and that may be worth keeping an eye on. A little work needs to be done though. Something to at least keep us occupied until we get our Christmas Eve snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 We will have to recover from a Pacific airmass due to a piece of the PV setting up near Alaska for a few days. But it's not a shutout no hope pattern. The stj is undercutting and its possible to get a just cold enough storm. Best odds would be a trailing wave type thing. But once towards Xmas if the whole pattern continues to retrograde things will become very favorable again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 By far the two best analogs to the euro seasonal are 2002/3 and 2009/10. Not bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: By far the two best analogs to the euro seasonal are 2002/3 and 2009/10. Not bad. Couldn't be in better company. Wonder if @PrinceFrederickWxwould let me up my snowfall totals in the contest? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I posted last night (in discobs thread, oops) about the 12/21-12/26 period. I see potential for building heights around Greenland and a +pna that albeit isn’t strongly depicted for this window, does show up in positive territory on latest gfs telleconnection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: We will have to recover from a Pacific airmass due to a piece of the PV setting up near Alaska for a few days. But it's not a shutout no hope pattern. The stj is undercutting and its possible to get a just cold enough storm. Best odds would be a trailing wave type thing. But once towards Xmas if the whole pattern continues to retrograde things will become very favorable again soon. JMA weeklies show the potential for busy weather underneath in this set up, which in time I hope improves further to an even colder and snowier pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Look at that massive rainstorm on the GFS at 210. That's a lock. It will happen exactly like that. I'm not even joking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 GFS with the old 1000mi run to run shift in the storm location for our next precip maker around the 15th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: GFS with the old 1000mi run to run shift in the storm location for our next precip maker around the 15th. GFS with a couple of fantasy land "threats" the week before Christmas. It won't be a cold week...probably seasonable to slightly above normal temps...but given the h5 look on the ensembles I could see a way that something undercutting the ridge in Canada could work. Not high probability but a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS with a couple of fantasy land "threats" the week before Christmas. It won't be a cold week...probably seasonable to slightly above normal temps...but given the h5 look on the ensembles I could see a way that something undercutting the ridge in Canada could work. Not high probability but a chance. Yup. I don’t see a big torch anytime. A few days AN with cutters and then seasonable or just BN afterwards. I think there could be a few chances before XMas, but I bet we get busy right around XMas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Author Share Posted December 6, 2018 Today’s GEFS continues the pattern of the last few showing a SE trough near the end of the run. Not much cold air around, but looks like storm chances. Need the Canadian ridging to move west a bit and up over the pole to get some cold air back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Check out the +PNA, this is historiclly our best Pacific for snow. https://imgur.com/a/lx8EmMg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Getting closer... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Getting closer... Hey psu you think near and beyond this time frame we start to see an improved Pacific ? I see we are going to go through MJO 3 to 5 so warmer, ( 50 maybe mid month ) and then hopefully back to colder and stormier later. repeat the progression again. It seems we never really lose the Atlantic side, but it would be better if the Pac improved further. If any indication from previous years like this one, once we lock into a better Pac hopefully that stays for a while. Thinking we are not fully seeing the changes taking place now, and in the next 15 days, at the top from the SPV displacement. blocking might go a bit crazy but my fear is I hope not cold and dry. Seasonals say don't worry about moisture though. And tonight we will see if the weeklies remain robust for cold and precip like they did this past Monday for late month and Jan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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