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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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4 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Funny thing about this storm too....its still 144 hours out lol. Eventually it has to lock in and time start moving forward.

Most of the delay is due to guidance picking up on the northern stream energy phasing which slows down the progression but is a good thing. Without it I doubt we have much chance. That wall of confluence is well south of ideal initially. A phase with a closed low west of us could pump heights in front enough to tilt the axis to what we need. 

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Solid improvement 2 runs of the EPS in a row? 3 if you count the 18z run? That sounds pretty good to me. 

I haven’t looked in detail, but looks like many of those EPS members pick up on the northern energy that phases in and pulls the low up the coast Monday? Only fly in that ointment is it probable leads to temp issues. I think you can see that reflected in the snow maps.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Ji said:
2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us

Well except boxing day but that's #10

And parts of the area did decent in the boxing day storm. Parts of Southern Maryland on the western shore had 4-7"

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Simon Lee puts out some good stuff too,  here is a view of deceleration of the polar night jet . And, its not about a SSW it is really just continued assualt to the SPV. 

All signs point to the end of the month when we start to feel some of the sensible impacts. Or, at the very least changing drivers of the pattern, which I hope fit the seasonal models . 

 

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11 minutes ago, frd said:

Seems some changes out West were in part the cause for the clusters moving a bit more North it seems.  

 

 

If you look at the EPS members that give accumulating snow up to Mason-Dixon/LNS, they all have the west coast ridge axis sharper and drift over the ID/WY border while the low crosses into western KY.  That's a classic signal in the KU books for DC and Baltimore.

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39 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us

Can you post the list of analog storms? Forgive me if you’ve already done so. 

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3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

f you look at the EPS members that give accumulating snow up to Mason-Dixon/LNS, they all have the west coast ridge axis sharper and drift over the ID/WY border while the low crosses into western KY.  That's a classic signal in the KU books for DC and Baltimore.

Good observation I hope the positive trends continue.

And, in this  area you have to weight the Euro better when it comes to forecasting the future position and extent of the West Coast ridge. 

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LWX disco was excellent this morning especially when they acknowledge the uncertainty. 

"Keep in mind, this potential winter storm is still a few
hundred miles offshore of the central California Coast and has to
travel over 1500 miles to the Texas Coast from Wednesday night
through Friday in order to feed off of additional moisture, and then
travel to the east or northeast thereafter. A lot can change in
wintry precipitation coverage and amounts."
 

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6 hours ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I remember you posting those last year. Was super cool and informative. Thanks for relaying the GEPS. 

No problem.  I don't know how much time I'll have this season, but I'll try to post them when I take a look at them.

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Maybe someone with WxBell Access can post but, it appears from JB's release just now that for the 4 th month in a row the updated  Euro seasonal  looks very, very good. 

I guess Joe is saying below the new Euro seasonal looks like the Pioneer model.  

 

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57 minutes ago, Ji said:

2 of top 6 analogs from storm are dec 2009 and Jan 96. Dec 2009 is #1. March 1980 is 2. None of analogs had major snow in Carolinas that missed us

That's funny because the other day I was posting some of the h5 maps from that Dec 2009 storm because I saw some similarities in how the models seemed to be evolving and how that storm looked from 5 days out.  Obviously the time of year and nino are also similar.  The blocking situation is not although I would argue that the way that little bootleg ridge over greenland and the displaced PV lobe are interacting is acting as a defacto block similar to the way the 2009 west based nao would impact the weather in a sensible way.  Different roads to the same place in a way.  

 

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@Ji I know the two steps up one step back thing is annoying but we are not at the range yet where steady linear progress run to run should be expected.  That kind of thing typically happens inside 72 hours when last minute changes can become clear and smack the guidance in the face so to speak...and at that point when we start to see trends they often continue run after run in a continuous way.  But at 100 plus hours still that is less common.  You have to look at things from a distance and take in a whole cycle or day of runs and see how the overall look is going.  Obviously we are trending towards more NS interaction and possibly phasing and that could be good.  Overall if we average the 24 hours of runs we have seen a slight northward adjustment in the guidance overall.  But most importantly, we are about to enter the 100 hour threshold and we are sitting there right on the edge, which is exactly where I said I wanted to be right now.  Keep us close.  Keep it right there where we can smell it...and then let it play out.

There is a bad taste in our mouths because of the last 2 years close calls on similar situations....however think of where they were 100 hours out.  This is way closer right now then both of them were.  If you actually apply the same northward adjustment to this storm as they both had in the final 100 hours we would be ok...actually it might end up a little too north for the southern half of this forum!  

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6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Maybe someone with WxBell Access can post but, it appears from JB's release just now that for the 4 th month in a row the updated  Euro seasonal  looks very, very good. 

I guess Joe is saying below the new Euro seasonal looks like the Pioneer model.  

 

The euro seasonal decided to follow my lead from the other day and jump all in for winter!!!  

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