RDM Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This panel makes you wonder what else is possible with all these pieces as they shift around. Is that a trailing closed low (ULL?) on the heels of the first, a double shot? Recall that was alluded to as a possibility earlier today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: FV3 is out on the NOAA website: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area 0.25” QPF to DC. I don't see the FV3? Am i missing it? I see the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I don't see the FV3? Am i missing it? I see the GFS... Dtk posted a few pages back that the mageval.ncep.noaa site is actually the FV3 when you click GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 we are on a treadmill...every north shift is followed by a south shift so after 2 days we are in the same disastorous place 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 at its usual “take a rest” at 96 but there is more interaction and a quicker dive by the NS SW....similar to the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 16 minutes ago, RDM said: Is that a trailing closed low (ULL?) on the heels of the first, a double shot? Recall that was alluded to as a possibility earlier today... The closed low to our sw is the trailing vort dropping down from the mid west. Euro had it too. Both got close to a phase. A clean phase would make things really interesting. Gefs may have a few big hits coming up. We'll see 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Same graphics as when I brought madden 99 3 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Moving in the right direction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Same graphics as when I brought madden 99 Madden 99 was much better. I think you mean Tecmo Super Bowl. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Madden 99 was much better. I think you mean Tecmo Super Bowl. I was thinking Intellivision Football. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GEFS ensemble snowfall mean 4" at DCA at 132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 guys read DTs update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GEFS ensemble snowfall mean approaching 4" at DCA at 126Down from 6 at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Ji said: Just now, yoda said: GEFS ensemble snowfall mean approaching 4" at DCA at 126 Down from 6 at 12z Still going up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, yoda said: GEFS ensemble snowfall mean 4" at DCA at 132 Increases to about 5.5” by 144. The yo yo continues. ETA: 6” by 150. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still going up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6" line touches DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Precip panels look great. Northern extent better than any gefs run today. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 6" line touches DCADoes no good if it goes back down tomorrow. I guess that's life on the edge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Precip panels look great. Northern extent better than any gefs run today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Trend was our friend tonight. Let’s not obsess over clown maps and QPF outputs. Those will change 5x a day. The upper air pattern is looking much more favorable tonight on the GFS. Modeled Confluence does not match northern extend of the low or precip. The likelihood of southern suppression is low given the PV position and strength. HUGE improvements tonight where it matters. Surface outputs will catch up in the upcoming days. VA still may be the jackpot zone, but do NOT rule out Maryland and Delaware just yet. Significant snow, IMO, is coming for someone within 50 miles of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 is ok now that I can see it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Thanks for posting. That’s a touch higher than 12z. Talk about a see saw. The really heavy stripe moved notably north. 1.5" into SoMD now. Another 75 miles north and well...you know 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: FV3 is ok now that I can see it! Yea TT def displays it a lot better. Does that weird ass loop at the end of the storm where it has it loop back in over the outer banks after initially forming south of Wilmington and east of MYR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 DTs call for cville ! 75% for 6+ 50% for 12+ 25% for 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Pretty big consensus shift here. Not a lot of spread with the orientation. Looks great to me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 00z FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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