nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Precip to the M/D line at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Phantom low in SE Canada creating weakness. Look at mslp anom panels. High retreats faster too. Lol. Another NS feature to watch. This one we want tho 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 not particularly heavy, but definitely more norther with the northern extent of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 GFS looking more amped, further north. Plenty of time before this whole thing shakes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Not the dream, but closer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I was about to be pessimistic as hell if this didn't happen. But I'm about even now. We get to carry on until tomorrow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 If you add the weenie rule of the GFS underdoing the NW extent of the precip shield then that run is solid. I knew we’d get teased again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Good enough for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: not particularly heavy, but definitely more norther with the northern extent of precip The fabled northern edge of snow shield at d5. It can only get better from here until the euro comes out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: The fabled northern edge of snow shield at d5. It can only get better from here until the euro comes out. Well, Euro will always be the heartbreaker, so not staying up for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 big improvement over previous GFS runs, but only one run. Let's see if this holds and if FV3 can stay the course as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 For the experts in here and I know it’s weenie rule #105 but, is there any truth to the NW précis shield being underdone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Much better than previous runs obviously but the NS sw that drops in has a sloppy phase, I wouldn't be surprised if the timing continues to improve showing a more clean phase given the trends over the last few runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2-4 inches for DC if TT were to be believed lol... nice run. GEFS should be fun to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Phantom low in SE Canada creating weakness. Look at mslp anom panels. High retreats faster too. Lol. Another NS feature to watch. This one we want tho Looks like a colder trend to come.. it may even be dry snow by the time all is done. <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 00z CMC is a fringe job for the area. Heavy snows stay in the AKQ cwa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Now just a 3 hour wait for fv3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I’d take this and run. 2-3” in Arlington. 6” just west of EZF. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, Euro will always be the heartbreaker, so not staying up for that This panel makes you wonder what else is possible with all these pieces as they shift around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Pretty good jump south on Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I was about to be pessimistic as hell if this didn't happen. But I'm about even now. We get to carry on until tomorrow. 117 hours to shift 75 miles north---it seems easy on paper:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 The 00z FV3 is running to 36... hope that it reaches 144 or something by morning 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: The 00z FV3 is running to 36... hope that it reaches 144 or something by morning it will go to 96 and stall till the next La Nina 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 CWG snow potential index went up to 3 lol And Kammerer is liking it - the 00z GFS - in his tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Just now, yoda said: CWG snow potential index went up to 3 lol And Kammerer is liking it - the 00z GFS - in his tweet i mean sure. its the first time its given us snow since Saturdays runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 the FV3 despite its implosion at 18z has been consistently north of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This panel makes you wonder what else is possible with all these pieces as they shift around. Ya gotta wonder if...as you said, these pieces keep shifting around...what the model runs are gonna look like--and if we'll be seeing stuff go from north to south, back north...Or is some ns vort gonna appear and then disappear again... Or...if this is to go positively for us...do we see things shift away from a miss south to something else altogether? (Just the ramblings of my mind, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, yoda said: CWG snow potential index went up to 3 lol And Kammerer is liking it - the 00z GFS - in his tweet Watch Kammerers FB live where he is like "NOPE, not gonna happen, but maybe". The "Crapital W. Gang" it just went back to 1/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 FV3 is out on the NOAA website: http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-area.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=area 0.25” QPF to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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