Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point. Hey, at least there IS an option 2...can't really say we had that 24 hours ago, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, Newman said: Here were the 18z EPS fwiw: Credit to Tony/Metfan. Didn't know 18z EPS went out that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah if the 0z suite tonight doesn't trend back north with the storm, I'm starting to think it's option 2 or nothing for us. I think option 1 would be pretty hard to come by at that point. Or option 3...not sure what that is but I am ready for anything now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: Didn't know 18z EPS went out that far Here were the 12z for comparison: Definitely a more consolidated lean to the north on the 18z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: It’s hard to believe that is not a perfect setup for a monster storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: There will be some serious namming for some areas once it gets into range....you best believe that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s hard to believe that is not a perfect setup for a monster storm. Right? Looks like the low near Nova Scotia wants to pinch off and form a 50/50 and the energy near the Dakotas ready to dive into the stj energy via the pumping of the +pna out west in response to that monster ull/trof building South of Alaska. Fun to dream anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 I don't see why we can't trend more +PNA in the Pacific, it would be wet snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: It’s hard to believe that is not a perfect setup for a monster storm. We need the northern stream to slow down by 8 to 12 hours. Otherwise, the flow at 500 mb is too progressive. I'd give tonight's NAM a C+/B-...needs more work to keep the LOW close enough to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 1 minute ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I don't see why we can't trend more +PNA in the Pacific, it would be wet snow though. wet snow is better than no snow mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Icon trending towards even lower heights over the northeast. I suppose the idea of a phase could throw a curve but looking at all the guidance the last 48 hours the trend has been more suppressive with the NS not less and it's been offsetting improvements in other areas so that we're still treading water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 We are well within the standard deviation of all the globals right now. Also the models generally dont handle the northern stream very well at range so we are still a day or two away from a good idea of what the northern stream will do. Its a big player in this equation so we are just gonna have to give it some time. its pretty clear the southern stream is gonna have what we need. Overall just gotta wait and see how this evolves over the coming days, but all the players are on the table and whoever gets into snow will likely see heavy snow with this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Icon is south again and in line with the euro and gfs. No run over run improvement at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Bust 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Bust Probably. If the nc/swva area gets hit solid then score one for NWP at long range. It's been the most consistent solution from pretty far out in time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 All the players will be coming onshore/in play by Thursday. Will have a much better look at things then. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toekneeweather Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Hey what do u guys think of the nam 0z run I know it’s far but cmc first signaled January 23 2016 snowstorm and nam had it on radar since 84hrs ... than cmc brought it back dumb late but the point is Nam’s the furthest north and at 84hrs it looks like the cmc few nights ago when it was at 180 away. End result of cmc that run looks horrible for us but remember back in 2016 a few days before January 23 blizzard, the cmc also had a perfect positioned low with a great track but mostly rain But it we all know what happened that week Lets not forget nam nailed January 4th 2018 snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: All the players will be coming onshore/in play by Thursday. Will have a much better look at things then. As much as it's fun to track storms so far out I've never seen models be routinely correct in this time frame. We wait. It will be interesting to see which model had the best forecast at this range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It’s early in the GFS run but confluence pressing down stronger vs 18z. We’ll see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 It's trending colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Heights responding as the NS Vort drops in behind our SS SW....better than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Here she comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 H5 looks better... dare I say a lil better than 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Precip into DC by 114... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Still moving north at 117 off NC coast....mod snow tickling DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 This could be the one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 Yup..better at every level so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 120...stalling it seems...mod snow into MD...850 line north of Fredericksburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 123 998mb just east of HSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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