nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The upper Midwest shortwave is already sucked into the bowling ball. But now there's another (fantasy) ns shortwave kicking things along. This could end up running the coast... It’s certainly becoming more and more believable. If we can’t get the confluence to relax, this scenario seems to be our next best shot. Ensembles have been slowly catching on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Relax the NE confluence a little quicker with the setup we just saw and we probably see that low stall around the mouth of the bay as the 500s catch up. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Almost....again Dosent Boston go through this everytime before they get in on the 2 -3 feet? I'm starting to get sold on the idea now too... It's not often when a fairly strong southern shortwave phases with the ns and closes off but goes quietly out to sea south of the mason dixon. It happens but usually when there's a nasty neg nao in the mix. This storm is getting kicked by a wobbling 50/50 spinning off vorts. Change some timing around and nyc and bos are getting snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Almost....again Dosent Boston go through this everytime before they get in on the 2 -3 feet? I was thinking the same thing lol. The bowling bowl phased up the coast idea is showing up as at least a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 For those of you who don't know, the 12 Fv3 GFS is out to 276 hours on weathernerds.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: OMG. Are you trying to get BobChill in a bunny killing rage!? Ha, ha! No way! I think we have to ignore the GFS until it starts showing what we want. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 We are usually begging for a high 1030's HP over the top of our storms. We need that HP over Northern Ohio not Southern PA. Still time for shifts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Quasievil said: Ha, ha! No way! I think we have to ignore the GFS until it starts showing what we want. I won't start playing softball with small animals until we have to write this one off. Imho I believe the odds of an ok event are easily 50/50 even with the euro and gfs consistently showing a miss south. It's really easy to envision how this event can change into something more classic for the MA and NE. They never come easy so the current roller coaster is completely normal too. Pretty much every storm is like this. This particular one is higher stakes because it's very high odds of a prolific event for somebody. Hopefully everybody as long as my yard gets the most. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. Where are you seeing it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: Where are you seeing it? Yeah, it hasn't even started running on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. I'm actually expecting just that, because now its probably playing catch up with the new scenario in the mix wrt the trailing shortwave out of Canada. It's caught in the middle right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. I don't see that?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Where are you seeing it? I don’t see it on TT or weathernerds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. Dude, what/whete are looking at it? (And that would be called more than a wobble if it happened, btw...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 In other long range news... 12z EPS now looks exactly like a textbook nino Dec hemispheric pattern at the end of the run. This isn't a cold pattern but its surely a precursor of good times ahead if this is where we're going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. maybe looking at yesterdays?? pics or it didn't happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. It's ok. Sometimes we accidentally look at the previous day's 18z run and not the latest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: In other long range news... 12z EPS now looks exactly like a textbook nino Dec hemispheric pattern at the end of the run. This isn't a cold pattern but its surely a precursor of good times ahead if this is where we're going. Tony Pann storm?...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 My above post remains true, if the FV3 comes south, it wouldn't shock me, as we could be seeing a transition in evolution of the storm from option 1 with the confluence to the latest GFS/Euro looks at h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 It's ok. Sometimes we accidentally look at the previous day's 18z run and not the latest.18z yesterday gave us good snow. He must have other access 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jewell2188 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: My above post remains true, if the FV3 comes south, it wouldn't shock me, as we could be seeing a transition in evolution of the storm from option 1 with the confluence to the latest GFS/Euro looks at h5. Dude, get out of your feelings. It’s not true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 13 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FV3 wobbled south. Basically nothing north of DC on 18z run. Lol it's not out yet... nice try 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I'm sort of at a loss. I have seen quite a few runs now that I have felt there has been some room for the low to gain more latitude as it has crossed the south. And yet we have seen very little if any response. Maybe the low is just too weak to take advantage? If we see this general setup at game time that little extra latitude gain as it exits the coast could mean the difference between a possible stall off of OBX vs. around the mouth of the bay as the low waits for the 500's to catch up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: I'm sort of at a loss. I have seen quite a few runs now that I have felt there has been some room for the low to gain more latitude as it has crossed the south. And yet we have seen very little if any response. Maybe the low is just too weak to take advantage? If we see this general setup at game time that little extra latitude gain as it exits the coast could mean the difference between a possible stall off of OBX vs. around the mouth of the bay as the low waits for the 500's to catch up. Right where we want it @d6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Lol it's not out yet... nice tryTT isn't only site that has it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol it's not out yet... nice try TT isn't only site that has it lol 13 minutes ago, nj2va said: I don’t see it on TT or weathernerds 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol it's not out yet... nice try TT isn't only site that has it lol It didn't look like it was out on weathernerds either...(unless I'm just not using the site right, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just enjoy the 12z till 0z....its not even stuck at 96 on tt yet with 84 missing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 No need to run the Fully Vexed 3; we already know it's out to lunch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now