BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The same can almost be said for ~120 http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml gefs mean is close https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens&region=namer&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018120412&fh=132 eta: time of our storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12z GEFS mean gets 6" line back into DCA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At least looking at the snowfall maps, GEFS mean improved in DC. 6" now into DC. 2" line up into Central NJ again. ETA: Mean QPF at 0.8" for DC...hard to tell with having to zoom in on the Weathermodel maps. 0.5" line at the M/D border heading NE from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Never heard of him 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ian Livingston is the Capital Weather Gang guru. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GEFS opens the door fairly noticeably for a northward shift. By 120 it's very obvious but it starts earlier. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 is beautiful again. Huge hit 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Destruction 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 seems acceptable. Now just need queen euro to lift her skirt and follow. 2 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Clown map of FV3 has 16-20” in Balt-Dc corridor 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeesh, almost 2" of QPF in DC all snow on the 12z FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Quick paint grab of 12z GEFS mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV better stand for f-cking verify 6 2 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I am basing my entire future opinion of the FV3 off of this storm. It’s a completely rational action. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Seems like GEFS mean disagrees with the parent model a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I am basing my entire future opinion of the FV3 off of this storm. It’s a completely rational action.Was about to post this. This storm is going to decide how it’s viewed this whole winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The FV3 is basically a carbon copy of it's 6z self and only slightly different that the 2-3 runs before that. If nothing else, the new gfs is showing consistency. Something the old gfs was never good at. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Ian Livingston is the Capital Weather Gang guru. He developed these forums fyi. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At the office, and don't have much time. Anyone care to throw a quick clown up of the FV3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GEFS adding to the number of solutions where the trailing energy phases and brings a low up the coast a day or 2 later. Another hint that the large scale synoptics are far from nailed down with the overall evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Seems like GEFS mean disagrees with the parent model a bit. I think GEFS disagrees with itself. Mean 500 and surface evolution look like a small step back to my eye compared to 6z, but precip bumped north noticeabley. I’m guessing there are some outliers or two camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: He developed these forums fyi. He did? Damn Ian, I'm impressed! 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Was about to post this. This storm is going to decide how it’s viewed this whole winter. It’s either gonna be better than the Euro or worse than the NAM at 84. No middle ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 @Bob Chill digging into the GEFS and seems like a few mix/rain in DC. Is this more of a resolution issue or do these actually support some mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He did? Damn Ian, I'm impressed! I knew it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: He did? Damn Ian, I'm impressed! I can't remember if it was amwx or Eastern to his credit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Last 6 runs of the new king. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Last 6 runs of the new king. Halt the green blob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 4, 2018 Author Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The FV3 is basically a carbon copy of it's 6z self and only slightly different that the 2-3 runs before that. If nothing else, the new gfs is showing consistency. Something the old gfs was never good at. Been scary consistent for over 2 days. Going on like 10 runs now. Not sure what to say about it except I really pray it’s right. Grandpa GFS has been lurching around like a drunk uncle on thanksgiving. At some point, one of the two of them will cave to the final outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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