Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 12 minutes ago, Scud said: Now that’s better than my first cup of coffee! Love waking up to that. Now where’s that coffee... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Finally the morning crew delivers the good news while the night crew went to bed sucking their thumb curled up in the fetal position 5 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Biggest takeaway from the 06Z GEFS is we are seeing better heights in front of the low. Which is a good thing for those who are unsure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Did I miss a summary of the EPS? Oh wait - just looked.. now I know why! FV3! WOW! I was ready to get a fork out! I still have the utensil drawer open! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I’m all about our new FV3 love. How soon until Boston gets pummeled though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yeah, just saw the FV3...damn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Have to admit. There are some fun solutions starting to pop up on the individual ensemble members of the GEFS. I would take e-4 in a heartbeat. 2 to 3+ feet just to the north and west of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 28 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Also seeing a much quicker relaxation of the confluence to the NE. Yep...not sure what happened to my fv3 post when it was out to only 96 hrs I must have accidentally deleted it, but by that hour you could already see the lead NS vort with confluence moving out of the way and heights building. Good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 18 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said: These modelsBut I’ll take increasingly heavy snow while watching the Ravens-Chiefs game Not models....merely guidance. They were never created or programmed with the sole idea of providing a solidly "modeled" forecast. They were designed to help forecasters see the atmosphere with more detail to aid in creating a forecast. But that's another topic for another day. Like they say, live by the models die by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, Scraff said: Now that’s better than my first cup of coffee! Love waking up to that. Now where’s that coffee... So the best part of waking up really isn't Folgers in your cup? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: 6z GFS improves vs 0z Might try to come almost NNE. H5 presentation is MUCH better. Let's all get back on this rollercoaster again. I never got off...but I'm getting dizzy and the guy keeps yelling at me that I've been out of tickets for hours and he's calling the police. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I think by 18z today every model needs to show precip into DC at least for this to be the corner. One off model run here or there isn't cutting it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I think by 18z today every model needs to show precip into DC at least for this to be the corner. One off model run here or there isn't cutting it Off model run? Off model run!? Me to wife: Hold my coffee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current. A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Off model run? Off model run!? Me to wife: Hold my coffee Ha...maybe not 18z but we do need some consistency on a move soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N. But the 500mb mean looks much improved. Cant make this stuff up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GEFS mean qpf went South after 4 consecutive runs bringing it farther N. That may be so but if you notice to the south it is juicing up over previous runs. So when this whole thing shifts north we will be talking 2+ feet of snow vs. 1+ feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 20 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Have to admit. There are some fun solutions starting to pop up on the individual ensemble members of the GEFS. I would take e-4 in a heartbeat. 2 to 3+ feet just to the north and west of the cities. You missed e16 last night. 3-4 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Are the GEFS ran off of the GFS or are they completely independent? I'm wondering if when the FV3 becomes implemented if the GEFS will be ran off of a different progam/algorithm than current. The gefs switch won't be for another year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: A met posted that the GEFS will be converted over to FV# sometime next year. Until then it is being run off the current programming. actually check that. Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3. I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing. I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it. Need more coffee/dramamine first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You missed e16 last night. 3-4 feet. Think you are reading it wrong. Looks as if it is just a little over 3 feet at best. Mines better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: actually check that. Hi risk and i were discussing the other day and he said that it is too big an undertaking and they dont have the resources to convert the GEFS to Fv3. I think you'll have a new Op to stare at w/ same old GEFS for longer range viewing. I'll dig back through my posts and see if i can find it. Need more coffee/dramamine first. I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Think you are reading it wrong. Looks as if it is just a little over 3 feet at best. Mines better. Split the difference. Bipartisanship 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 G-MORNING, Trying to catch up with the smarties here. Is this tool useful? :: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gmanikin/fv3gfs/fv3images.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 26 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: That may be so but if you notice to the south it is juicing up over previous runs. So when this whole thing shifts north we will be talking 2+ feet of snow vs. 1+ feet. Looking forward to a good NAMing at some point. Seriously, how different is this from any of these types of storms we’ve had over the last 6 months? So many of them were almost monsoonal at times in our warmer days. Now we finally have the cold to work with. There’s a reason we have broken yearly QPF records in 2018. Now we hopefully just continue that trend...but with pure white gold for the foreseeable future (from my lips to the snow gods ears). Eta: Says Captain Obvious. I’ll show my way out now and head over to the beginner WX boards now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I think he meant they can't do it now while also working on the Fv3 rollout. They will shift to that once the Fv3 goes live. That was my take. Yes, time and manpower are what is limiting the transition until later next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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