psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: 2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?) It's closer to 3 feet near me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: 2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?) As is 0 feet, yes. They are both within the envelope, and both show up on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: As is 0 feet, yes. They are both within the envelope, and both show up on the ensembles. I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: 2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?) Yea, it's possible. But it's an odds thing. If you look at all of them a southern storm is favored but half get at least 2" into DC. It's fair to say DC has a 50/50 shot at some snow looking at all guidance today. For now, sw va is in the best spot. Many different solutions give them snow. But all of this can and likely will change over the coming days. We're decades from this ever being an exact science 5 days out. Especially with synoptic events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?) From what I surmise, they take the operational model and run it at a lower resolution and call it the control. Then they tweak the inputs to account for sampling bias/error, and then run the model in many iterations. Some give us mega snow. Some are southern sliders. Am I missing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?) This storm is loaded with precip and won't be moving fast. 2"+ qpf has been showing up every run. The big hit is nothing more than a solution that includes the precip max over our area with all snow ptype. Someone south of us may get several feet of snow unless it shifts north. Then my yard does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I guess I don't get the science behind it...(or how that could even be a possibility in a setup that ain't exactly classic...but I assume these are computerized algorithms or something?) Ok so the gefs Fv3 and EPS are all targeting about 100 miles southwest of D.C. With a major snowfall. The major factor suppressing it south is the northern stream flow over New England. In this case a vort diving down in front. Like a clipper. So if that's 100 miles north of where they project it...and how often is a clipper off 100 miles from day 5? I'm simplifying this but I think you think the error it would take to get the difference we need is greater than it is. ETA: of course the error could be the other way and this gets squashed more but we won't talk about such trivialities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Through 120 I like the look of the stj system better but the pesky NS vort the gfs has is showing up too. If that can just get out of the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Low over LA and a high over MI hr 120...interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Ehh starting to look slightly more suppressed at 132. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Closed upper low over KY on approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yea even more evident by 138. It's shifting the main show into NC. Dives that NS in like the gfs and squashed. Not a disaster but worse. Disappointing way to end the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I won't be dreaming about snow drifts tonight. Bunnies maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Roanoke went from 15" to fringed. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Yea even more evident by 138. It's shifting the main show into NC. Dives that NS in like the gfs and squashed. Not a disaster but worse. Disappointing way to end the night. We have 24 to 36 hours to fix this. 18z gave us life but as usual when we need a north trend...it goes south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: It's the worst run I've seen from any model Gfs had a run that didn't get anything into nc even. Lol. It's a bad run though. I agree that if we don't start to see any improvement in 36 hours it starts to become unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At least CHO doesn't get any snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Basically it's the Souths version of Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro does a little fujiwara and tries for a late save but too little too late. I don't think this is a done deal yet but tonight wasn't a good move. On to day 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Euro does a little fujiwara and tries for a late save but too little too late. I don't think this is a done deal yet but tonight wasn't a good move. On to day 4. Eps hopefully will say the op is an outlier like the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs had a run that didn't get anything into nc even. Lol. It's a bad run though. I agree that if we don't start to see any improvement in 36 hours it starts to become unlikely. Mannnn this thing ain't comin' north...lol I'd bet money on it if I were a gambler (but it would be an unwise bet because it's one drive by cynicism, lol) (I think I'll be less cynical when we actually get good model trends that eventually result in a hit...but the past two years...multiple failures, and trying to will a ns feature out of the way. Gotta think the nino will make things easier though...just gotta be patient. But again, the last two years is making that difficult. Can barely remember what a good tracking week felt like!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Meteorology is a quantum science. Possibilities are infinite in time, but as time becomes short, so do the possibilities. We still have time.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Look at this thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 14 minutes ago, Scud said: Meteorology is a quantum science. Possibilities are infinite in time, but as time becomes short, so do the possibilities. We still have time.... Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now. By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 5 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Some believe that time is not linear. If so then you have just as many possibilities one second from now that you would have a million years from now. By the way, in your linear approach, possibilities would be infinite only if you have infinite amounts of time. Only if possibilites take time. In physics, they do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Overnight EPS took a step back as well. Nothing earth shattering as the changes seen were small which reflects the fact that the outcome can flip on a dime. So this storm is still very much in play for those to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 One thing I will note is that there is a strong majority of members that track from the south up the coast that are a good deal inside the mean track that is being shown as well as favor a more northerly solution before the stall and/or move out to sea. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Overnight EPS took a step back as well. Nothing earth shattering as the changes seen were small which reflects the fact that the outcome can flip on a dime. So this storm is still very much in play for those to the north. 2 to 4 max for north of jeb landSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, luckyamaha said: 2 to 4 max for north of jeb land Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Maybe. I am still sticking with my thoughts of a more northerly solution with this storm then currently shown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 6z GFS improves vs 0z Might try to come almost NNE. H5 presentation is MUCH better. Let's all get back on this rollercoaster again. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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