psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Just now, Ji said: what happens to the FV3 at 96...does...someone power it off and then it takes 30 minutes to reset for the rest of the run like a cable box? No someone is just sitting at the computer wondering how much you can take before they hit enter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not at this range. We have had a few examples of big storms that locked in day 7 but that's rare. Think of the 2 storms that teased us the last two January's. Both were way south at day 6. Both trended north enough to hit the coast and NYC. They were on the outside looking in like we are now at day 5-6. Last 2 march storms trended north. 2017 turned from a snow to a sleet storm. Last winter almost screwed us with the final north trend. The heaviest area of snow ended up in central PA and to NYC and they were mostly out of the game 72 hours out. 2016 I was hanging out on the northern fringe all week leading up. The heaviest actually ended up northwest of me! 20" got up into central PA. NYC was outside looking in then set their all time record. Feb 2014 I was up in central PA and outside looking in all week and ended up with 13". Do they always trend north? No...and like I said earlier if I had to bet this likely stays south. But it's close. 60/40 close Imo. I think because we haven't had a late save from the south lately people are thinking that just doesn't happen. But it can. We have been screwed by the north trend several times recently and places like Salisbury and ocean city and Richmond have been saved by it. Maybe it's our turn. Maybe not. But people are making way too many declarative statements based on fairly close misses at 120 hours. I wish guidance was that good but it's not! I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Honestly toggling between the Fv3 gfs and ggem at 96 hours they have very minor differences. The ggem and gfs diverge after that with the ggem digging the northern stream vort in behind and phasing and the gfs crashing it down in front and squashing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm sure it can, but...yeah, kinda hard to believe given all the resistance it seems to be getting from that pesky ns vort...(unless the models are gonna be wrong about that...) It's a fairly minor error that is creating the difference between suppressed and a hit. Ok put it this way...if a clipper was modeled to hit us at 120 hours how confident would you be that guidance was going to nail that? That's what we're talking about. If they are wrong about 12 hours or 150 miles with a northern stream vort we're talking about a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA. You’d be right. DCA went down an inch and SW Virginia jacking with over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA. Big improvement for central/southern VA, somewhat so for western VA. Pulled back ever so slightly towards DC and MD. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's a fairly minor error that is creating the difference between suppressed and a hit. Ok put it this way...if a clipper was modeled to hit us at 120 hours how confident would you be that guidance was going to nail that? That's what we're talking about. If they are wrong about 12 hours or 150 miles with a northern stream vort we're talking about a big hit. GEFS looks pretty wet for our area though. edit: looks similar to 18z. We area in the blue qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 0z gefs spread is not bad at all. Southern slider is not a lock. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luckyamaha Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 59 minutes ago, Ji said: very dissapointing GFS run....its like we lost all that we made up at 18z Why again care about the GFS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, GEOS5ftw said: While we wait for Fv3 the GEFS looks to hold with a bit of tightening of the gradient in total precip...this is looking at total precip on TT not snowmaps but I would expect the means to looks the same as 18Z...maybe a bit less towards PA and a bit more in central VA. The .5 qpf straddles the mason dixon line exactly same as 18z. Lol. rare to see two identical runs at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs spread is not bad at all. Southern slider is not a lock. i really like e7 and e17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 At this point I’d happily gamble with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 This is not a realistic panel on the cmc. A 994 at the mouth of the Potomac is not snowing near the cities like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: 0z gefs spread is not bad at all. Southern slider is not a lock. Ahh heck just let them freak out about the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: This is not a realistic panel on the cmc. A 994 at the mouth of the Potomac is not snowing near the cities like that It is phasing with the NS and the temps crash and tighten right as it passes. It's unlikely. But it's the ggem so I'm not wasting much time on meso analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i really like e7 and e17 You're a sick puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 FV3 remarkably consistent, but less amped. Knocks down totals for everyone by a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 as i said FV3 will be better than GFS but not as good as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 00z has been a disaster. We took a slight step back instead of making a step forward. Oh well....time to look at week 4 of the weeklies 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: as i said FV3 will be better than GFS but not as good as 18z For d5-6 on an op it was basically identical. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z has been a disaster. We took a slight step back instead of making a step forward. Oh well....time to look at week 4 of the weeklies Yea right. The only thing you'll be looking at is the euro then eps then 6z suite and by 12z it's close enough to start extrapolating the nam 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 29 minutes ago, Ji said: i miss the runs a few days ago where the primary tracked to Tn:( Wait for the ones in a couple days that go into Ohio!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: At this point I’d happily gamble with this. It's gonna be e16!!! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: FV3 remarkably consistent, but less amped. Knocks down totals for everyone by a little. Noise. Almost identical run for that range. Consensus still looks just south of us. And that's fine with me. I want to see a move once we get inside 100 hours. Until then just hold ground. No further south but where it's at is fine. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's gonna be e16!!! Now see I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: See I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol One? There's a bunch like that just shifted around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now see I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol Because it's still within the envelope of possibilities. All of them are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: See I don't get that...why do these ensemble runs of close storms always have that one funkdy-drunk member that does that? Lol Like I said a fairly small difference in how guidance is handling discreet northern stream vorts is leading to these differences. And the difference between a southern VA hit and a DC hit in the longwave pattern is a fairly minor error from this range. When the guidance shows us in the jackpot at 120+ hours no one trusts them. We know better. But when they show us getting fringed suddenly they are deadly accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Because it's still within the envelope of possibilities. All of them are. 2 feet is still in the envelope? Lol (that is what that color means, right? Is that measuring liquid precipitation?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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