Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 So now we all love granddaddy GFS? 6 hours ago JI shoved his body into a dumpster. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: I definitely didn't see it as early as others and still don't know what signaled it early. It really shows up here...look at the heights. Note how much more amped the stj system is AND how the northern stream on top is relaxed and not as suppressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 I just know from experience with +EPO's, they usually move in faster and bust warm a few days before the event. Maybe the Pacific will change on models because the whole pattern we move into around this time is non-El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Real nice hit for Central and SW VA. Amazing differences at H5. It'll be interesting to see the FV3 which will probably go south to really give us some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 That precip shield is suspect in that set-up... I guess it is possible. Quite honestly, now I am worried about this being too far north! LOL! Ya! I have to be skeptic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Real nice hit for Central and SW VA. Amazing differences at H5. It'll be interesting to see the FV3 which will probably go south to really give us some clarity. 18z GEFS should be fun to see shortly 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs verified verbatim it would be the most depressing storm of my life and would knock boxing day and march 2013 out of the top 2 spots. I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others. that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 850s look good, but surface is toasty for a bit. Who cares. Nice evolution and low track. Still 5 days out and work to be done. As is it snows some in my yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 LOL, 12z vs 18z, 0z it will jackpot Philly. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Looking over the progression of the low through the south and the 500s I think there was actually some room for more latitude gain by the surface low. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Most of the time when we see weird solutions 6 days out...it ends up being more of typical type storm...where NYC Boston gets some action etc 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, GATECH said: LOL, 12z vs 18z Wait, so central GA shouldn't plan on 6-8" of snow 150 hours out? So you're telling me the models can't make shifts this far out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We don't want it any further north then that right now. Trust me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Everyone is being so vague. Eeyore. Is that really you?!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others. that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out. Tomorrow will be the bullseye by Thursday it will be Albany lol 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others. that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, GATECH said: LOL, 12z vs 18z So I get about 6 inches on that and 25 miles to my southwest gets about 20. Ok well I am sure I richly deserve this outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, stormtracker said: Eeyore. Is that really you?!! Those who tried to give me an answer. I'm still seeking an explanation please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I am more worried about rain now and too far NW as are some others. that was a huge jump in 6 hours 6 days out. Given the marginal airmass in place, this is a valid concern. But the reality is this is a concern in most set ups for I-95 and east. And we talkin early Dec here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, C.A.P.E. said: Given the marginal airmass in place, this is a valid concern. But the reality is this is a concern in most set ups for I-95 and east. And we talkin early Dec here. True but lets get a storm first and then we can iron out the specifics on temps, RA/SN line, etc. I'm not sure I'm immediately jumping to worrying about rain given the suppressed signal on the last few runs/EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: Given the marginal airmass in place, this is a valid concern. But the reality is this is a concern in most set ups for I-95 and east. And we talkin early Dec here. Still I like our chances with this. All day long I will take that set up. Even If I don’t jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: If the gfs verified verbatim it would be the most depressing storm of my life and would knock boxing day and march 2013 out of the top 2 spots. But according to the gfs your house is in whiteout conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Here comes chuck with a random post about the EPO in 4 3 2.... 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 By 6z Tuesday, we’ll all be screaming for the southern trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We don't want it any further north then that right now. Trust me. Agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: If by whiteout conditions you mean 1/8 mile visibility due to salt and brine being kicked up by wind you would be correct. Montgomery county is totally white on that map...I'm jelly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So I get about 6 inches on that and 25 miles to my southwest gets about 20. Ok well I am sure I richly deserve this outcome Going to be a long week ahead. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Here comes chuck with a random post about the EPO in 4 3 2.... Nah PNA dude How can it be negative! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Might be a *tad* early, but the 18z FV3 seems a little less suppressive @ 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 When people say it looks less suppressive, are you looking at trends or the previous run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 20 minutes ago, BristowWx said: So I get about 6 inches on that and 25 miles to my southwest gets about 20. Ok well I am sure I richly deserve this outcome Bristow, your one model run away from double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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