tplbge Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, jewell2188 said: Am I the only one who thinks this is a southern MA storm I think it's a southern slider, but I mainly lurk here and listen to the experts. I'm surprised that nobody has mentioned that the ridge out west perhaps might be a bit too far east. And I don't link precip crashing into the pacific northwest as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12z EPS Snowfall mean is lower, FWIW. 0z DCA: 4" 12z DCA: 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS leaves the door open for continued hopium smoking but a strong consensus shift towards a southern solution compared to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, paulythegun said: With the purple moving ene and over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 We will not have temperature problems with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS leaves the door open for continued hopium smoking but a strong consensus shift towards a southern solution compared to 0z. which will change at 00z again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 EPS Probabilities for >1, 3, 6, and 12" of snow/sleet for Baltimore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, BristowWx said: there is an evil face in Ohio...must be the NS throwing some sort of evil hex our way It's probably the ghost of nina past (2017/18 to be exact...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: EPS leaves the door open for continued hopium smoking but a strong consensus shift towards a southern solution compared to 0z. Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA. Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time... Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Our mid December 'relaxation' period is looking less and less relaxed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Comparing from the previous run we are seeing a much stronger signal for the storm off the coast though it is a touch slower. Also of note we have a fairly significant camp of lows to the west of the mean low (roughly 20) most of which are typically in a good spot for the DC/Balt region. We are also seeing a better press of high pressures from the north and west at this time. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Comparing from the previous run we are seeing a much stronger signal for the storm off the coast though it is a touch slower. Also of note we have a fairly significant camp of lows to the west of the mean low (roughly 20) most of which are typically in a good spot for the DC/Balt region. We are also seeing a better press of high pressures from the north and west at this time. That looks really promising. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 25 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: We will not have temperature problems with this one Disagree. If the storm is delayed until Monday night we are toast. We are balancing a fine line between cold push and suppression and not enough cold bringing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA. Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time... Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo. Also if timing of storm keeps getting pushed back then we haven't been getting much closer in time yet to the event in terms of model accuracy and verification. So still lot of room for adjustments in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA. Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time... Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo. I thought 12z looked very similar to 0z at h5 and at the surface with the main features. Nothing really stood out to me. Essentially it was the same other than run to run noise at this range. Just my general take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: That looks really promising. We were seeing the same thing with the 00Z but they were more strung out up and down the coast because of timing differences. Seeing better timing thus a stronger signal at this point. Like seeing a better press of high pressures from the north and west which could hopefully help with any temp issues. Kind of surprised we didn't see better results with the snowfall mean. Now whether that was because of temperature issues or the alignment and evolution of the 500s or even something else I have no idea. And at 6 days it isn't not worth the effort as we are more then likely to see more changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: I thought 12z looked very similar to 0z at h5 and at the surface with the main features. Nothing really stood out to me. Essentially it was the same other than run to run noise. Just my general take. Agreed. A stronger signal and a little different look of the trough but all in all it was a close match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Disagree. If the storm is delayed until Monday night we are toast. We are balancing a fine line between cold push and suppression and not enough cold bringing rain. All depends on where higher heights set up shop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol And this was what it ended up as Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Before it’s over I honestly believe we may end up worrying with the too far north/west situation. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: This is what the gfs was forecasting 144 hours before the Dec 2009 storm. Lol And this was what it ended up as Not comparing the two storms just pointing out what kinds of errors can happen from 144 hours. Now go look at the h5 difference between the runs with a hit for our area and the one with a close miss. We're not talking earth shattering adjustments for this lead. But now we have the new and improved GFS. And the newer and more improved GFS in the wings as well. They both can't be wrong. Can they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 29 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Comparing from the previous run we are seeing a much stronger signal for the storm off the coast though it is a touch slower. Also of note we have a fairly significant camp of lows to the west of the mean low (roughly 20) most of which are typically in a good spot for the DC/Balt region. We are also seeing a better press of high pressures from the north and west at this time. Both 0z and 12z op had a low within that western envelope and failed to get preip to our lat. Im sure the precip shield is lacking a bit with that setup but probably not much imo. The slp gets to a position that is typically good for us but only because it has already cutoff, stalled and crept NNE... I wonder if the real issue is the southern starting point of the souther s/w and the only way for that to work is to relax the confluence overall...not just the NS vort we have been focusing on? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: But now we have the new and improved GFS. And the newer and more improved GFS in the wings as well. They both can't be wrong. Can they? Hmm this was the ggem from 144 in December 2009. Neither was all that close but the ggem was way better. At least it sees the stj system and is keying on the right vort. Gfs was off on a tangent and had a PV lobe right on top of us suppressing what would be a HECS. Again im not saying this is similar it's just funny to see such faith in narrow margins at 144 hours given typical error at that range. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Its a step down from 0z EPS but I thought that was a GREAT run. I was surprised it wasn't getting more play. I wouldn't have wanted the EPS any north of where it was last night. It's slightly south of perfect now but I don't mind it targeting VA. Lets see how this works. We have had a few of these the last couple years. In a Nina. In mid winter. With a weaker stj. And at day 5/6 they were targeting NC/SC if my memory serves. And they all trended north. Not enough to save us but if this corrects the same as those did...and it's targeting just to our south this time... Gun to my head this looks like a southern mid Atlantic storm. But if i had to put odds now it's only 60/40 miss south imo. Hard not to think SW VA is the bullseye right now. Just still unsure whether we get into the action at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 A lot of good hits in the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 3, 2018 Author Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Both 0z and 12z op had a low within that western envelope and failed to get preip to our lat. Im sure the precip shield is lacking a bit with that setup but probably not much imo. The slp gets to a position that is typically good for us but only because it has already cutoff, stalled and crept NNE... I wonder if the real issue is the southern starting point of the souther s/w and the only way for that to work is to relax the confluence overall...not just the NS vort we have been focusing on? Yes, I think this is a good point. 12z wasn't better for us because it got to Hatteras and then stacked and filled. Keep it moving/developing *just* a bit more and it's more classic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Last one. This was the gefs 144 hours before. Euro wasn't any better. Again my only point is that I have way less faith in NWP to nail the exact location of features at 144 hours then some on here do it seems. Yea I would lean miss south right now but barely. We're not in as bad shape as some think though imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hard not to think SW VA is the bullseye right now. Just still unsure whether we get into the action at all. There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: There are two camps within the EPS. One brings it up (some even become rain and snow into central PA) and a camp that suppressed. SW va is good on both so yea the mean looks great there. Thank you for saying this. The mean washes out the decent sized camp that gives us a much more classic storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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