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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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10 minutes ago, cae said:

We do have sccores (purple, below).  More here:  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/.  It has been consistently doing better than the GFS, but that's no reason to ignore the GFS; I'd just give it less weight.

Thanks for posting those.  There are also "PNA" (North America) scores, which might be better for our area than the NHX (Northern hemisphere) scores.  Unfortunately the GGEM has been lagging in those scores as well (at least at H5), but not by as much. 

welcome!

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That's an interesting graph.  Note that the lowest scores in the past month for all of them came from our last winter storm.

Yup -- Euro won that one, with CMC doing the worst. 

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It does seem logical to ask the question as to whether the Canadian could possibly be correct when you frame it with the "this is a northern stream issue, northern stream vorts originate in the main domain of the canadian model, so shouldn't it be able to resolve those better" thinking.

Is there any evidence to suggest that that model handles the northern stream better?

And how are 500 verification scores created for global models?  Can a model handle certain regions better, some worse and that affect its scores?  Or no?

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5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

GEFS ticked north. Honestly, the southern slider solution doesn't bother me as long as it slowly ticks towards a MA jackpot. So far so good. 

This...  I don't mind it looking like a southern slider as long as the system looks healthy and its not being squashed into a weak wave off Jacksonville.  We have seen that happen in the day 5-7 range the last few years and it doesn't recover.  It has recovered from that look to be a tease "close but no cigar" in the end.  We just need a little bit of relaxation of the 50/50 and associated vorts diving into new England.  That isnt a big ask and its a typical error at this range more often then being too weak with those features.  Having the consensus focused just to our south with a healthy storm isn't as problematic as when we were trying to will some squashed 1015 wave off Georgia at day 6 into a storm here.  

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

It's right where we want it at 6 day leads. Come on man... you know this

The timing is complicated to say the least, GFS shows more than one vortex at 500 mb sliding from Arklatex and off the Carolina coast.  It seems that the southern stream is slowing with multiple votices, none of which want to stack and turn left up the coast.   Too soon to know if the timing is figured out yet.

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4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

How is it encouraging?  Last night it was a solid hit, and now it has trended into suppression and better agreement with every other piece of relevant guidance.

If you look at the FV3 over the last 48 hours its pretty much locked in with each run only jumping around a little bit well within a normal error at this range.  If you take the average of all those runs its obviously focusing its attention on southern into central VA.  A few runs get DC into the mix and a few miss south... but the bottom line is the FV3 is "right there" with a close miss to the south.  Its not suppressing the thing to oblivion.  The kind of adjustments it would take from day 6 to turn a southern VA hit into a DC hit are a fairly minor synoptically for that range.  

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