NorthArlington101 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: the beta GFS will save us but we lost the Icon GFS is literally on death's door. CMC looks to be a hit again, storm moving N at 138. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: CMC will keep false hope alive so that's good EPS gave us 4 inches.....lol...usually the GFS historically does the worst with east coast storms....Weenie rule 5334` 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I can see how that could evolve, but verbatim, its a southern slider. To your point, yes a few runs from now this correction could give us what we need for it to gain latitude. No, your right it isn't there yet. Southern shortwave is outracing it. 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: There have been some good improvements out west but that wasn't the problem to begin with. That isn't going to matter if what you circled in the northeast is there. Look at that wall!!! That has to relax, speed up, lift...anything or we are toast. That was my point. As/If we see continued improvements with the NW feature it should have upstream implications in the NE flattening the flow and lifting that wall somewhat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 well, the if the GFS biases come into play, it just did a great job of "loosing the storm" for us, and has a lot of "coming back" to do. Good grief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I was looking at the shortwave that ends up over NE at just the wrong time and it was definitely weaker earlier in the run and then strengthened just at the wrong time. Similar issue is that piece of the TPV/50-50 low is closed off and sitting in the Gulf of St. Lawrence. Wasn't that far south before, which increases the confluence/suppression, etc. Combine that with a weaker southern s/w that doesn't phase at all and = poop. Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look. We need that whole situation to relax and back off! But... that isn't out of the question at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: EPS gave us 4 inches.....lol...usually the GFS historically does the worst with east coast storms....Weenie rule 5334` I said last night I'm hugging the snowiest model. CMC is king for now. FV3 and Euro on deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: I said last night I'm hugging the snowiest model. CMC is king for now. FV3 and Euro on deck. CMC looks good at 500.. TT dosent have surface caught up yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ahh I see that...yea I think I was ahead of you already on the panels... plus I was seeing the lower heights over the northeast and that 50/50 and thinking...even if its weaker all those vorts up in canada are going to continue to dig into new england in that look. We need that whole situation to relax and back off! But... that isn't out of the question at this range. well at least warmer solutions are less of a worry. Just trying to stay positive....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 i like the fact that there's at least a southern stream system. i could see where this bumps north again, assuming the northern stream isn't as intense (which is possible in early dec). early enough in the game for a positive trend starting asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: EPS gave us 4 inches.....lol...usually the GFS historically does the worst with east coast storms....Weenie rule 5334` During a La NIna I give preference to the GFS on the handling of the NS over the Euro. With a El Nino that is reversed as the GFS has quite often over played the strength of the NS. So in other words, I am looking more towards the Euro on this upcoming storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC actually a tiny bit more amped than the last run and the odious northern stream jackal leaves space for our main feature to develop nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Ji said: CMC looks good at 500.. TT dosent have surface caught up yet regular mslp/precip are all the way through. Solid hit with some CCB love to finish the job. GFS is dead to me 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The GFS is dead to me! For better or worse, I’ll combo whatever the CMC, FV3, and King Euro show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: During a La NIna I give preference to the GFS on the handling of the NS over the Euro. With a El Nino that is reversed as the GFS has quite often over played the strength of the NS. So in other words, I am looking more towards the Euro on this upcoming storm. #keepingfaithalive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, showmethesnow said: No, your right it isn't there yet. Southern shortwave is outracing it. That was my point. As/If we see continued improvements with the NW feature it should have upstream implications in the NE flattening the flow and lifting that wall somewhat.. maybe but I think the problem is upstream not down. Look at the 50/50. Its way too strong/south and is backing up the flow behind it allowing all the vorts up in canada to pinwheel and dive into new england which suppresses the flow. I am not so sure how much the ridge in the west can help with that. Its almost ideal already and its not getting it done. We probably need that configuration to our northeast to relax some or be north of projections now for it to make a difference. The ridging out west is almost ideal. But all its doing is to compress the flow even more. Maybe that changes and hopefully I am wrong. I don't care how we get the northern stream out of our way I just want it out of our way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: regular mslp/precip are all the way through. Solid hit with some CCB love to finish the job. GFS is dead to me i mean there is a reason they are throwing the current GFS is the trash 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC will keep false hope alive so that's good I'm going strictly with the CMC from here on out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC shows a nice storm for CHO and central VA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 GFS and CMC handle the NS SW significantly differently - at 138 the CMC has it much slower compared to the GFS so that it is above the great lakes, at 138 the GFS has it diving into upstate new york. The CMC allows the heights to amplify ahead of the SW where the GFS is beating them down to oblivion. NS tends to be poorly modeled at this lead so hard to say which will end up being closer to correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Ji said: i mean there is a reason they are throwing the current GFS is the trash But we have no verification scores on the FV3 either... so it is a crap shoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: #keepingfaithalive It's much more fun stringing the weenies along. Makes the inevitable jump that much sweeter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: CMC will keep false hope alive so that's good False or not we take. Looks like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Interstate said: But we have no verification scores on the FV3 either... so it is a crap shoot. it's always a crap chute 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 The difference between the CMC and GFS are the NS system the gfs has rotating through just northeast of Boston at 144 is about 250 miles north of Quebec City on the CMC lol. That allows it to come up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 CMC is a shellacking, we straddle the freezing line but 850s are good to go. I expect to see some gaudy numbers again on the clown map when its out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Scud said: Your fired if we are going to troll people, and be off-topic, at least make sure the English is correct. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Canada should be able to handle northern streams better...it is closer to where they are afterall 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm going strictly with the CMC from here on out Sound logic to me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: it's always a crap chute the FV3 is probably a pig with lipstick on it. The Americans should of bought the old Euro model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: CMC shows a nice storm for CHO and central VA Where do you live again? Just wondering 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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