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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


WxUSAF
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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

I wasn't trying to be flippant. I agree. I was focusing too much on the negatives. There are some things to work with still there. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases  right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9.

Excellent analysis. Well done and I agree with the supersized confluence happening on December 9. We didn’t have that in 2009–10 like that. Not happening this early, this winter either 

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now why is that southern vort coming in so weak? (And why is the stj looking that weak?) Isn't the southern stream supposed to be stronger in a nino? (or is it not fully established yet?)

Well the SOI is pretty lame right now so perhaps assuming "nino means good stj" isn't a safe bet. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn't trying to be flippant. I agree. I was focusing too much on the negatives. There are some things to work with still there. 

Trend leading into 12z was a weaker southern shortwave. So far , it seems that trend has been reversed. And that was the negative trend I was most concerned about. I’m not much  worried about too much confluence, particularly as the storm has again slowed by 12 hours or so.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well the SOI is pretty lame right now so perhaps assuming "nino means good stj" isn't a safe bet. 

I mean I don't know as much about this stuff as you do...which is why I asked. (and really this is my first year actively tracking a weak/mod nino...so I didn't know much about the SOI. (So, overall, we need both the SOI AND the stj to be strong?)

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9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trend leading into 12z was a weaker southern shortwave. So far , it seems that trend has been reversed. And that was the negative trend I was most concerned about. I’m not much  worried about too much confluence, particularly as the storm has again slowed by 12 hours or so.

Agree. This is probably the furthest south run we'll see. Eps will almost certainly be north of the op but will prob favor a NC SVA hit.

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14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I mean I don't know as much about this stuff as you do...which is why I asked. (and really this is my first year actively tracking a weak/mod nino...so I didn't know much about the SOI. (So, overall, we need both the SOI AND the stj to be strong?)

The southern oscillation index (SOI) is just one way to measure the STJ.  The enso is measured by the sea surface temps but the reason nino matters is it usually has an impact on the stj. Right now the SOI isn't really in typical nino territory.  It's not a 1:1 correlation. The stj still goes through fluctuations but in a nino it tends to average negative which means a stronger stj usually. Last I looked it was actually hanging out in slightly positive territory. 

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1 minute ago, Amped said:

The Greenland block isn't really far enough west to keep the cold air locked in. Most DC snowstorms have + height anomalies over Northern Hudson bay and Northern Quebec.

7HqPaei.png

 

 

You ok? Your last couple posts have been awful. I mean, the Euro has it snowing in SC with that look.

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31 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Trend leading into 12z was a weaker southern shortwave. So far , it seems that trend has been reversed. And that was the negative trend I was most concerned about. I’m not much  worried about too much confluence, particularly as the storm has again slowed by 12 hours or so.

I'm concerned that the timeframe keeps getting pushed back.

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Just now, C.A.P.E. said:

You ok? Your last couple posts have been awful. I mean, the Euro has it snowing in SC with that look.

Yeah, from a cutoff pocket of cold air. The pacjet is directed right at us in this run and will not allow for a cutoff. I'm not saying it's right, just pointing out that it's an obstacle.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What kind of small change?

See that little bundle of energy just south of Hudson Bay on the left panel (12z run). That helped to keep the confluence locked in longer over the NE, not allowing the confluence to lift out, hence the storm couldn’t come up the coast. On the right panel, 0z run that energy isn’t there, the confluence lifts our and you get last nights result. 

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4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said:

Trying to put the pieces together on latest run.  GFS, FV3, CMC and Ukie were on track for a nice hit while the Euro and JMA were drunk. Is that about right? 

That’s a good synopsis.  Still 7 days out.  Anything on the table

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In longer range news... Both the geps and eps are shifting towards a +pna and a trough in the east. It's not a cold pattern but its not a shutout. Most importantly, none of the ens guidance are far away from a half decent winter pattern. It's def going to get mild after next weekend but I have a hunch we'll be tracking another d11+ fantasy by this time next week. 

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36 minutes ago, peribonca said:

Can't wait for the 18z cycle of wiper blade models! We shouldn't be surprised this far out and might still get some significant swings through Thursday given all the moving parts.

The longer we wait for this storm to possibly reach the area, the worse odds we have. Hurry Up!!!!

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