Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 In other long range news... Gefs takes another step towards making any relaxation brief... lol. There's showme's +PNA. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: In other long range news... Gefs takes another step towards making any relaxation brief... lol. There's showme's +PNA. I'm starting to think the bad look was just a brief step as the pattern retrogrades into a typical nino look. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looks like our s/w hitting southern california has a little more spacing with the one out in the Pacific this run at 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Cold dome pressing a lot more at 144, would be really nice to get a phase and a turn to the NE here instead of exiting stage right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Looks like the Euro at 168 is off Jax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro is suppressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro went with my "don't want to see some weak pos wave exiting off Jacksonville" option. It's squash city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Too much of a good thing on the euro. The plot thickens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Exactly what I was worried about. We are gonna need a stronger vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro went with my "don't want to see some weak pos wave exiting off Jacksonville" option. It's squash city. That hp is a brute on the euro. Not just a little suppressed... Congrats SC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Sounds like it will be close enough to chase. Who is with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro went with my "don't want to see some weak pos wave exiting off Jacksonville" option. It's squash city. This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Exactly what I was worried about. We are gonna need a stronger vort. Is that possibility still on the table?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: This feels like that storm last year that the EURO kept on squashing all the way down to Florida, smh I take it a total whiff is still on the table...darn. At least it's just December 2nd and we're in a nino (and not as likely to be starved for snow this winter) Yeah I think I mentioned that possibility yesterday. Definitely a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, H2O said: Sounds like it will be close enough to chase. Who is with me? We need to look on the bright side. It prob can't get any more supressed and we're 6 days out. My money is on a further north solution so we can chase to Raleigh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That hp is a brute on the euro. Not just a little suppressed... Congrats SC. On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 20 hours ago, yoda said: 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: We need to look on the bright side. It prob can't get any more supressed and we're 6 days out. My money is on a further north solution so we can chase to Raleigh Looks to have decided to go north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Looks to have decided to go north. when there's no more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. Yea, not what we were looking for to put it mildly. Everything went wrong. Luckily we still have 4 days before large shifts become unlikely. Eps prob won't save us either. They will almost surely follow the op for the most part now that we're inside of 8 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: On top of a stronger high it also has a weaker stj system and less energy digging behind. All that combined to show the result I didnt want to see showing up. Still just one run. But It wasn't good lol. Barely even gets precip into southern NC. And there isn't nearly enough upper support to get it to turn the corner. This run wasn't even close. Actually, I don’t think it’s as bad as it looks. PNA ridge is better (which we also saw with the GFS) and shortwave looks deeper. It’s just the confluence that’s keeps it down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Boooo. Back to hoping for a good run. Never can trust these models blowing something up over us in 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 That's going to be a wacky snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 6-12" for Atlanta, 16-20" for Athens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Euro blasts that torch eastward across the US/CA border way to fast for anything to develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually, I don’t think it’s as bad as it looks. PNA ridge is better (which we also saw with the GFS) and shortwave looks deeper. It’s just the confluence that’s keeps it down there. I'll go with your take. Any ship in a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: 6-12" for Atlanta, 16-20" for Athens. I have a bridge to sell anyone who thinks that’s happening in early December. The more I look, the more I think a lot of features trended well actually in this euro run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, supernovasky said: 6-12" for Atlanta, 16-20" for Athens. That has to be a rare event. Before 15 Dec...maybe never. But it won’t go down that way I am confident. Not sure why but I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 2, 2018 Author Share Posted December 2, 2018 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'll go with your take. Any ship in a storm! Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 Now why is that southern vort coming in so weak? (And why is the stj looking that weak?) Isn't the southern stream supposed to be stronger in a nino? (or is it not fully established yet?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 2, 2018 Share Posted December 2, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seriously, s/w is better, west ridge is better, the northern s/w phases right at the right moment to stall it at the coast. It’s just the confluence is supersized. No way I buy that on December 9. Is the snow cover that widespread and banked up in Eastern Canada right now to allow serious cold like that to bleed down? I could see like mid January but I agree 12/9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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