frd Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Faster arrival = colder and more snow Euro vs GFS slower, warmer . So far not sure about the GFS CAD looks underestimated, thats cold stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Euro mostly misses south but maybe like 3-5" in DC? Definitely a better look than the GFS tho... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 It's a big hit for south and central VA. .5" in N MD 3-4" in DCA 7-8" in CHO 12" in RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 SEuro has a 555dm almost closed low, so there's no real northern stream involvement. The SLP pattern looks almost perfect though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Like I was mentioning earlier, the high is retreating way too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Some fairly significant changes at 500 mbs by day 8. eta: compared to 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: It's a big hit for south and central VA. .5" in N MD 3-4" in DCA 7-8" in CHO 12" in RIC ya that wont cut it--i think we all are thinking Hecs or bust now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a big hit for south and central VA. .5" in N MD 3-4" in DCA 7-8" in CHO 12" in RIC Feeling an incoming ALEET... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Like I was mentioning earlier, the high is retreating way too fast. Dude it's a snowstorm for Richmond on this run. 2 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: Dude it's a snowstorm for Richmond on this run. LOL-i was thinking the same thing. 12 inches in Richmond--dont care if the high is in Tokyo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Almost an identical track as 00z but nothing to get the precip shield to blossom to the N...or tug the slp N. Wouldnt take much tho for a good forum wide hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Like I was mentioning earlier, the high is retreating way too fast. What are you talking about? We don’t see any rain with the Euro solution. And its heavy snow in Southern VA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Dude it's a snowstorm for Richmond on this run. Perfect for the time being, I take it ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: It's a big hit for south and central VA. .5" in N MD 3-4" in DCA 7-8" in CHO 12" in RIC Excellent run. If 3-4 inches of non-mixing snow falls in the first half of December it’s a huge win. And with this kinda set up we know that being on the northern edge at this lead isn’t necessarily bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Still a -PNA bias, 12 hours after the storm it's above 0. Normally that would trend warmer as we get closer, but not this time I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, DCTeacherman said: Excellent run. If 3-4 inches of non-mixing snow falls in the first half of December it’s a huge win. And with this kinda set up we know that being on the northern edge at this lead isn’t necessarily bad. Exactly, I loved it. I’d easily take 4” of snow in early December especially considering the last two winters we’ve had. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Huh...wondering just how much difficulty the models are gonna have with that northern stream element...(and how likely it is that we get just right!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I like the new FV3 but I have to ask myself which model has the best ability to handling this challenging set up? HM sums it nicely comparing side by side 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Major difference we are seeing is that the ridging/higher heights in the west is riding over the low as opposed to running behind it. Keeping the low and the precip from moving north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, losetoa6 said: It doesn't give me any snow but I loved the run actually Agreed, it isn't easy for a storm that produces that much rain over Tennessee to slide off the coast to our south, especially when there is a high moving offshore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 19 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Some fairly significant changes at 500 mbs by day 8. eta: compared to 00z run. Not unlike what the 12z GFS did up north with the PV lobe(s) compared to prior runs. Heights have a more stretched out and flat look and no defined vortex digging further south into eastern Canada. Despite that, the outcome with the storm between the 2 models is dramatically different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Like I was mentioning earlier, the high is retreating way too fast. Are you ok? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2018 Author Share Posted December 1, 2018 Snow can keep bullseyeing Richmond for the next 4-5 days as far as I’m concerned. @psuhoffman fringed at Medium-long Range? Lock that ish up. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Are you ok? No, I'm stuck with ttb maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 the last few months remind me of 09/10. storm after storm starting in early fall...colder and colder each time until we got within striking distance of a cold enough high. gonna be a wild winter if this pattern holds, and the fact that we've already gotten snow in november says a lot about the type of pattern we're in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Euro solution was a relief imo. Ens will prob look really good... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 3 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: No, I'm stuck with ttb maps. This to me appears like a re-retreating high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 20 minutes ago, frd said: Perfect for the time being, I take it ! It's 8 days away. Im not worried about a close miss on op runs. If we start to see runs targeting the Carolinas then I might get concerned. A central VA Jack on a day 8 run is just fine! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: This to me appears like a re-retreating high. Just needs to be cold enough right. But there isn’t much wiggle room I agree. All snow is a tall order anytime of the winter so if we can score a front dump then I guess we need to thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Just now, Bob Chill said: Euro solution was a relief imo. Ens will prob look really good... I agree. Given climo and the synoptic set up, I really don't fear suppression. Its been cutter city lately, but this one has a legit chance for a different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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