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School systems need better advisors.  A lot of times, schools dismiss when they are better off staying and sometimes they dismiss at the worst possible time (during the heavy snow). 

We had around 3/4 an inch at the house in north Johnson City (according to my sick at home son) and a heavy dusting in Erwin with the largest flakes I have seen since 1998 falling toward the end of the heavy precip.

Nice surprise... 

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1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Thanks man. Sloppy now as melting taking place and lt. Rain has begun. 

Bummer, that stinks when rain washes away the snow.  Hopefully this is a sign of bigger things to come though.  

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The RGEM pretty much saw it 40+ hours out and I believe the NAM 12km sort of sniffed it out around 30 hours in advance. The NAM 3km on the other hand never really did grasp it. I believe as one of the posters here described it, the 3km sometimes seems to try too hard on the terrain features and elevation. With all that considered, the actual event overperformed all models at least for me.


I agree. The 12k NAM handled it better than the 3k NAM. On sim radar 3k NAM never turned it over to snow with the initial band. It was too warm.

GFS and FV3 also picked up on it as well somewhat.

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Oh but wait, we have GOES 16 mesoscale floater over the TN valley today, so we can watch in ultra hi def:

giphy.gif 

In other news, given the sound on my roof and radar, I'm guessing the rain has over performed yet again. 

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Looks like it should be snowing out in West TN.  Let us know what is happening and send us some Pictures.

 

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The FV3 isn't backing down from the midweek system. It's on it's own with the amount of cold. Looks like a lot of near misses or light events being thrown out in the extended. This will either be a nice period over the next two weeks or the 2nd year in a row with very frustrating weather.

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2 hours ago, bearman said:

Looks like it should be snowing out in West TN.  Let us know what is happening and send us some Pictures.

 

  Got light snow falling now for the past 15 minutes.  Cold and gusty as well.  I’ll post pics if we get enough in the ground.  

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Unfortunately it looks like the commahead is on the fast track to dying out on the radar. It could partly be moving into poor radar coverage but I think mostly it's lost support from the parent low. The NW flow may kick in for a while and bring enough snow showers here to cover things.

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33 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Gusty wind, moderate snow and 33 here now. Small flakes, but it looks like a thick fog outside due to the snow.  I'd guess the winds at 25-30 WNW/NW

Calm winds and maybe a flurry or 2 at my place. It's barely spitting out any snow.

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1 minute ago, Runman292 said:

Calm winds and maybe a flurry or 2 at my place. It's barely spitting out any snow.

I'm most surprised you're getting calm winds. They are roaring here. Actually heard a limb hit my roof a little while ago.

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36 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Unfortunately it looks like the commahead is on the fast track to dying out on the radar. It could partly be moving into poor radar coverage but I think mostly it's lost support from the parent low. The NW flow may kick in for a while and bring enough snow showers here to cover things.

Yeah it was close, but same end result. Just north and east of me with pick up some accumulation. Shame on me for thinking it would be any different this time LUL. I am getting some of those snow showers that you mentioned that aren't showing up on radar.

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8 minutes ago, Kentucky said:

Yeah it was close, but same end result. Just north and east of me with pick up some accumulation. Shame on me for thinking it would be any different this time LUL.

Yep, it died quickly. Not sure if you are in a spot to get NW flow snow or not but if you are, hopefully you can get some.

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Just now, John1122 said:

Yep, it died quickly. Not sure if you are in a spot to get NW flow snow or not but if you are, hopefully you can get some

Spot on, I usually don't do well with those, Everything usually goes north and east. Maybe just maybe on the next system, we'll have a more favorable track.

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21 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I'm most surprised you're getting calm winds. They are roaring here. Actually heard a limb hit my roof a little while ago.

I stood out there for 15 minutes, and I may have had a couple very brief weak wind gusts, but that's about it. It's cold and calm.

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Just now, Runman292 said:

I stood out there for 15 minutes, and I may have had a couple very brief weak wind gusts, but that's about it. It's cold and calm.

You must have some ridges around you giving you some shelter from the wind. Gusts are uniformly 20-30 across the area, Oak Ridge, Crossville, Middlesboro, Chattanooga etc. As I type this it's gusting up right now outside. I'd say 20-25.

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Ended up with a very light dusting last night, nothing substantial just dusting on the cartops and the leaves in the yard.  Hopefully it’s a sign of more to come soon.

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6 hours ago, John1122 said:

You must have some ridges around you giving you some shelter from the wind. Gusts are uniformly 20-30 across the area, Oak Ridge, Crossville, Middlesboro, Chattanooga etc. As I type this it's gusting up right now outside. I'd say 20-25.

My house is situated in a valley surrounded by ridges in 3 different directions. It can get pretty windy sometimes.

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