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snowlover2

December 2018 General Discussion

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Mid - winter mode, and it's not even December. Another covering overnight. Freezing Rain chance, than heavy rain back to light snow early next week. Just seems if there's a chance of snow it finds away...I smell a busy winter for snow lovers in northern Illinois.

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^

NOAA.  They must be basing that on Dec.1- Dec. 3. There's a 50/50 likelihood that won't be correct and a 50/50 chance it will.

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NOAA outlook ugly as ****

It's been pretty quiet up here the past week, only nuisance type snows.  Even with the quiet week, 44" of snow fell this month.

Setup this weekend similar to a couple weeks ago when 17" fell here. NAM has been doing well, so stickin' with.

untitled.png.e240fd0743d7c969d658011dc0fff93c.png

 

 

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Since Hoosier seems to be laying down on the job, I guess I'll post the end-of-month never fail CFSv2. Get out your suntan lotion and galoshes.

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201812.gif

summaryCFSv2.NaPrecProb.201812.gif

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I just found out the coolest thing.

I was looking through a year of raw KCMX metar data.

I can now quantify how awesome this place is compared to Maine and San Diego.

 

In the past 67 days.......................it has been sunny 8 times. That is roughly 11% of the time.

Since the middle of October, it has been sunny only 4 times. That is roughly 8.8% of the time.

Since October 25, it has been sunny 2 times, or 5.5% of the time.

The last time it was sunny was 15 days ago.

It is not forecasted to be sunny in the next 8+ days.

 

There's a saying I've heard a few times when people are bragging about how bad the weather is to scare new people off - 'it doesn't just snow 300 inches; you also do not see the sun between October and February.'

That is awesome.

Lake effect weather is the best. San Diego can keep deluding itself into thinking it has something to offer. No, San Diego is the Hallmark Channel pretending to be a community. The content may be 'nice' - but it's still shit and the people are uniformly shallow, 2 dimensional bit characters existing some 80 odd years of worthless banality.

San Diego is a child's drawing of a figurine cast in dog shit - peopled by stinking shadows; a smear of banality claiming humanity.
Los Angeles sashays drunkenly then frets dumbly back and forth across the San Andreas and is finally heard from no more.
It wants to be a a yarn with some sort of dynamism. It isn't.
It's a tragicomedy, this one a 50 year old whore of a house wife, indignant and impetuous;
This one a rich girl who cuts her arms and thinks it's dynamic; this one from Silver Lake whose one line, 'Did I tell you I'm a vegan', represents the culmination of a subplot of personal discovery, the evolution of one man who towered over his privilege and *showed everyone* by appreciating buddhism, rap music, played native american whoops and hollers on Thanksgiving because HE KNOWS, he vapes, gets stoned, and, at the arc of his story tells the audience that there are, like, spinning dervishes from Iran who, he read, said that EVERYTHING is EVERYTHING and if you do mind expanding drugs you become a vegan because you just REALIZE.' The scene fades out as he reads his horoscope.
Life picks and tugs randomly through sequential variation at these unremarkable dangling subplots until the facade reverts back to inevitable natural selection and the cold, impersonal universe expands as San Diego flatters itself in a mirror signifying nothing.

Out, out, San Diego. The rest of us can't wait for you to fall into the sea. It doesn't even snow there.

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Looks like a fat bag of zzzzz for at least a couple of weeks. Yes things can and probably will change but right now its looking bleak.

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The DSM - Ames snow hole is either going to fill in this weekend or get significantly more LOL-worthy. Fun/complicated upper low setup tomorrow through Sunday. 

Nice storm for the Midwest even if some of it is rain

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2 hours ago, (((Will))) said:

I just found out the coolest thing.

I was looking through a year of raw KCMX metar data.

I can now quantify how awesome this place is compared to Maine and San Diego.

 

In the past 67 days.......................it has been sunny 8 times. That is roughly 11% of the time.

Since the middle of October, it has been sunny only 4 times. That is roughly 8.8% of the time.

Since October 25, it has been sunny 2 times, or 5.5% of the time.

The last time it was sunny was 15 days ago.

It is not forecasted to be sunny in the next 8+ days.

 

There's a saying I've heard a few times when people are bragging about how bad the weather is to scare new people off - 'it doesn't just snow 300 inches; you also do not see the sun between October and February.'

That is awesome.

Lake effect weather is the best. San Diego can keep deluding itself into thinking it has something to offer. No, San Diego is the Hallmark Channel pretending to be a community. The content may be 'nice' - but it's still shit and the people are uniformly shallow, 2 dimensional bit characters existing some 80 odd years of worthless banality.

San Diego is a child's drawing of a figurine cast in dog shit - peopled by stinking shadows; a smear of banality claiming humanity.
Los Angeles sashays drunkenly then frets dumbly back and forth across the San Andreas and is finally heard from no more.
It wants to be a a yarn with some sort of dynamism. It isn't.
It's a tragicomedy, this one a 50 year old whore of a house wife, indignant and impetuous;
This one a rich girl who cuts her arms and thinks it's dynamic; this one from Silver Lake whose one line, 'Did I tell you I'm a vegan', represents the culmination of a subplot of personal discovery, the evolution of one man who towered over his privilege and *showed everyone* by appreciating buddhism, rap music, played native american whoops and hollers on Thanksgiving because HE KNOWS, he vapes, gets stoned, and, at the arc of his story tells the audience that there are, like, spinning dervishes from Iran who, he read, said that EVERYTHING is EVERYTHING and if you do mind expanding drugs you become a vegan because you just REALIZE.' The scene fades out as he reads his horoscope.
Life picks and tugs randomly through sequential variation at these unremarkable dangling subplots until the facade reverts back to inevitable natural selection and the cold, impersonal universe expands as San Diego flatters itself in a mirror signifying nothing.

Out, out, San Diego. The rest of us can't wait for you to fall into the sea. It doesn't even snow there.

I think the best weather place for you might be a hotel in Colorado.

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With 0.03” rain through 8:40 am, Chicago’s 2018 precipitation has reached 45.94”. That moves 2018 past 1954 when 45.92” precipitation was recorded to become Chicago’s 5th wettest year on record.

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2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

With 0.03” rain through 8:40 am, Chicago’s 2018 precipitation has reached 45.94”. That moves 2018 past 1954 when 45.92” precipitation was recorded to become Chicago’s 5th wettest year on record.

They have now moved into 4th place with some additional rain after you posted.  The top 3 years range from 49.35" to 50.86"... probably will be tough to get there but who knows.

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18 hours ago, Baum said:

^

NOAA.  They must be basing that on Dec.1- Dec. 3. There's a 50/50 likelihood that won't be correct and a 50/50 chance it will.

They had Nov as above..... Look how that turned out.

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15 minutes ago, Jonger said:

They had Nov as above..... Look how that turned out.

The outlook issued around mid month did.  The end of month didn't but I would say the cold exceeded expectations.

Dq3TiA_XgAwn5yK.jpg.5eddca7294778ca64b99889f0d10f852.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

December definitely looks more variable than what happened over the past few weeks.  

Yea, I have a feeling my snowmobile is going to be unused for at least 2 weeks or more. I'm eyeing the late week storm, but even then -- meh. Too many warm-ups.

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5 minutes ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

So i'm hearing talk of a possible winter storm next weekend. Would any of the Ohio Valley be impacted ?

A storm looks possible.

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Watching the lake effect setup into/near northwest IN Monday into Tuesday.  The duration could be decent but not looking that good overall as inversion heights don't look too impressive and temps, while cold enough for snow, could be warm enough to cause some melting especially during the day.  

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30-40mph east winds and a driving rain much of the morning.  Picked up about a half inch.  Snow has melted/compacted down to about 4", and is looking pretty mangy now lol.  Tornado watch only about 50 miles away.  Would have loved to have gone chasing today.  

EDIT:  Thundering now, as an elevated storm is approaching.

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Been alive for over 40 years now, but the crash of thunder that hit around 6pm was the craziest/loudest thunder I've ever heard.  Not sure where the bolt hit, but it had to be within 100yds.  Lit up the whole inside of the house and instantly crashed and shook the house.  Scared the living shit out of me lol.  Funny thing is up until then, and even after the thunder was mainly the distant/slow rolling kind.  it had to be one of those high amp positive strikes.  That was honestly almost more impressive than the blizzard earlier this week.

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8 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Been alive for over 40 years now, but the crash of thunder that hit around 6pm was the craziest/loudest thunder I've ever heard.  Not sure where the bolt hit, but it had to be within 100yds.  Lit up the whole inside of the house and instantly crashed and shook the house.  Scared the living shit out of me lol.  Funny thing is up until then, and even after the thunder was mainly the distant/slow rolling kind.  it had to be one of those high amp positive strikes.  That was honestly almost more impressive than the blizzard earlier this week.

Had one like that a couple years back during a snow/sleet event. Hit a couple blocks over but was the loudest thunder I had ever heard. It was so loud that the house the bolt hit in front of, blew their windows out.

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With the lack of vegetation in the winter, especially leaves on trees, to impead and dampen the sound shouldn't thunder be heard better in the cold season vs warm? 

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3 hours ago, outflow said:

With the lack of vegetation in the winter, especially leaves on trees, to impead and dampen the sound shouldn't thunder be heard better in the cold season vs warm? 

The simple physics of the air molecules being more dense in colder weather would greatly amplify sound waves, allowing them to hit much harder.  

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Picked up 1/2” of snow on the tail end of the main band yesterday as we briefly switched to snow. Back to snow overnight and have about an inch to 1.5” today. Nice to see the ground covered for the first time since October 

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