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Zelocita Weather

December 2018 General Discussion & Observations

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2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Models have gotten wetter but also warmer for tomorrow

I think everyone sees some snow tomorrow with the low dew points but it's not going to accumulate near the coast

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You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 

12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39

f84.gif

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 

12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39

f84.gif

It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

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1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

I think everyone sees some snow tomorrow with the low dew points but it's not going to accumulate.

It’s definitely going to accumulate especially on grassy areas and areas to our north.

the ground is cold

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

I think the very active northern stream is part of the reason the long range EPS has been doing so poorly. Some of the biggest Euro busts involved a strong northern stream disturbance interaction like 1-27-15.

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2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It’s strange how in the last 8 years we’ve seen winters behave in the reverse ENSO state they’re in.  2010-11 seemed more like an El Niño outside of the back end shutting off.  December 2015 behaved more like a La Niña with a SE ridge vs just a blowtorch zonal pattern and now this month is showing some La Niña signals.  

Although this is good. When the transition happens, both streams will be fairly active and provide the coastal storm activity that we desire.  

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there have been winters that were similar but had different enso...1999-00 had sensible weather like 1965-66...1995-96 had sensible weather similar to 1963-64...

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6 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can see the stronger northern stream at work. Latest models such as the NAM force the weekend storm underneath instead of cutting. Another La Niña-like +SOI spike today. 

12 Dec 2018 1011.75 1005.45 13.39

f84.gif

i'm wondering if we'll get skunked again

gfs_z500trend_us_6.png

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I’m kinda excited for what the models will show for Monday’s sneaky event. It may be nothing but it may look more suppressed in the future runs which would make it a colder solution. 

Edit: Honestly we should be more excited for what the runs show for tomorrow morning too.

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

You can really see the northern edge drying out over the last several runs. So it wouldn't be a big surprise if suppression wins out to some degree again on Saturday.

 

 

The nam is really crushing the northern extent...

namconus_apcpn_neus_26.png

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Next 8 days averaging 41degs., or 4degs. AN.

Month to date is -3.1[37.3].   Should be Near Normal [38.8] by the 21st.

EPS still no Snow for the next 10 days.    GEFS is 50/50 on at least  3" by the 29th.

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