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December 2018 General Discussion & Observations


Zelocita Weather
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2 hours ago, Brasiluvsnow said:

88 and others might have seen this already but the GFS is now saying colder next week and it shows something on Wednesday and again 2 days later on Friday,,,,,is it on to something ?

The pattern is favorable but it will come down to timing like always

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14 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said:

4th storms looks verbatim too west/late coastal, but overall pattern for the storm is very interesting with established cold air, 50/50 low, and streaming southern moisture. Still enough time for this to go either way and at least some frozen. 

Too early to say what will happen

Euro is ots

Cmc has a snow event

Gfs has a late transfer

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all the cold el nino Decembers had a negative ao/nao on average...only 1997 was above normal but that was a strong enso...

year.....ave temp...snowfall.....ao.....nao

1958.......29.4.........3.8".......-1.687.......-0.70

1976.......29.9.........5.1".......-2.074.......-1.60

1963.......31.2.......11.3".......-1.178.......-1.92

1969.......33.4.........6.8".......-1.856.......-0.28

1968.......34.3.........7.0".......-0.783.......-1.40

1977.......35.7.........0.4".......-0.240.......-1.00

2009.......35.9.......12.4".......-3.413.......-1.93

2002.......36.0.......11.0".......-1.592.......-0.94

1997.......38.3..........T..........-0.071.......-0.96

2004.......38.4........3.0"......+1.230.......+1.21

1972.......38.5..........T........+1.238.......+0.19

1986.......39.0........0.6"......+0.060.......+0.99

1987.......39.5........2.6".......-0.534.......+0.32

1991.......39.6........0.7"......+1.613.......+0.46

1957.......40.2........8.7"......+0.828.......+0.12

2014.......40.5........1.0"......+0.413.......+1.86

1965.......40.5..........T........+0.163.......+1.37

1979.......41.1........3.5"......+1.295.......+1.00

1994.......42.2..........T........+0.894.......+2.02

1982.......42.8........3.0"......+0.967.......+1.78

2006.......43.6..........0........+2.282.......+1.34

2015.......50.8..........T........+1.444........+2.24

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11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’m still believing there is likely to be a mid to late month warmup.  It seems the majority of the El Niño in December either are mostly wall to wall warmth or have an early cold start then generally moderate middle onward 

and snow around the 5th seems to occur more often than not, like Dec 2002

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Following a brief thaw on 12/1 and 12/2, December will continue the colder pattern of November. This will open the door for early December winter storm threats. But as we have seen recently, it will be better to use post 120 hr ensemble teleconnections as a guide. The models such as the Euro and NAM won't really pin down the storm details until in the shorter range.

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_5.thumb.png.5bfa0409472156164bb1c6fc53dced70.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.41dc483f100d6d59a7ba0766806c8c6b.png

 

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Im not sure what next week will bring or even if what is written un the almanacs will come to be but its a fun reading especially for us weenies 

https://patch.com/new-york/newcity/s/gka7w/white-christmas-on-way-for-hv-almanacs-predict?utm_source=alert-breakingnews&utm_medium=email&utm_term=weather&utm_campaign=alert

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15 hours ago, Snow88 said:

18z gefs looks great for the 5th

 

9 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

and snow around the 5th seems to occur more often than not, like Dec 2002

We had a couple of years in a row with snowstorms on the 5th here. One of them was a near disaster because it had been warm(ish) during the day and the streets waremd up then it started as a few minutes of wet that quickly turned to sleet and a few minutes later to heavy snow. The precip started around 4:30-4:45 then everyone got out of work and the roads were nearly impassable as they flash froze. At least this year we've gotten that first storm out of the way already and everyone is ready for the next one, right? :rolleyes:

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DTWxRisk got that timing breakdown directly from the CFS.       Dec. 18 and Dec. 28 look to be the ugliest.     The CFS changes every day anyhow.    Yesterday I showed that Days 16-20 were a little BN.    But we better get some snow on the ground from Virginia to Maine to blunt the AN air mass.

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3 hours ago, BlizzardNYC said:

Haha bank on snow then always bet against that guy. Why anyone listens to him is beyond my wildest imagination 

There's almost unanimous agreement that a warm-up will happen around that time frame. 

Mild periods are very common in Nino Decembers, the difference is how long and mild it'll become. Even 02 had several weeks of milder weather in December/January.

However before that happens, we could see two shots at snow. 

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There's almost unanimous agreement that a warm-up will happen around that time frame. 

Mild periods are very common in Nino Decembers, the difference is how long and mild it'll become. Even 02 had several weeks of milder weather in December/January.

However before that happens, we could see two shots at snow. 

According to what I've been reading, it will basically be two weeks of warmth in the middle of December, which will be sandwiched by cold and snow chances at the beginning and end of the month.  I would sign up for that, not only in December, but all winter long.

 

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The Tri-State area is basically threading the needle with every single storm this winter, but there are so many quick moving storms this year.  There will be storms when its warm, and there will be storms when it's cold.  I imagine there will be 3-4 storms that drop 3-10 inches of snow this winter, as well as some super coastal runners that bury the interior areas with 8-16 inches. 

Currently, the GFS is depicting some close coastal storms between days 5-14.  Anything could happen. 

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